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It’s interesting but also reminds me of US presidential predictors. All the models that guess right come out saying they have the magic formula but are often re
by tyleo 1y ago
It’s interesting but also reminds me of US presidential predictors. All the models that guess right come out saying they have the magic formula but are often refuted by future elections.
This model needs a few more popes under its belt to build confidence in it.
- vasco 1y agoIf it's so good it could at least predict more past popes already.
- bombcar 1y agoThe best ones would show how they mopped up in the prediction markets with their brilliant model.
- luqtas 1y agosociology has same weird data showing even the weather can change for who people vote [0] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0962629824000209 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09626... and this is only an example of the multiple and more extensive studies made on this field the moment people mock data from AI crawlers, this technology is useless?
- coliveira 1y agoThis is not different from any exercise in seeing the future: some people will get it right, and they will be hailed as having some secret sauce when in fact it is mostly based on luck.
- schiffern 1y agoI do appreciate that, on HN at least, the headline writer had the decency to honestly say "guessed" instead of a more certain-sounding word like "predicted."
- baxtr 1y agoMost likely the pope will be replaced by AI before there is a new election. No need to predict.
- dullcrisp 1y agoThat is a prediction.
- poincaredisk 1y agoThis is a pretty wild thing to say. Pope will probably never - or at least for a very long time - be replaced by AI, simply because he's a symbol first and foremost. Actual decisions may be hypothetically made by AI, but you still need the pope to announce them.
- eska 1y agoIt’s a common theme in science fiction that an AI becomes something divine, because of the appeal to authority. The AI knows best. Who are you to question the AI? The AI wants the best for us. But all the fun is of course in that turning out not to be true :-)
- baxtr 1y agoI actually thought people would understand that this was meant as joke…
- qznc 1y agoRelated recent podcast interview from the Star Spangled Gamblers: https://starspangledgamblers.libsyn.com/the-trader-who-guessed-every-swing-state-correctlytwice https://starspangledgamblers.libsyn.com/the-trader-who-guess... > In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. > In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. > In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly.
- ceejayoz 1y agoThere are people who've won the lottery more than once, too, out of pure chance. It doesn't necessarily mean there's skill involved.
- mattm 1y agoAlso most states are foregone conclusions so there's really only a handful in doubt.
- slg 1y agoYou have a 12.5% chance to correctly predict 3 coin flips in a row. You need a lot more than 3 examples before we can actually be confident that a successful prediction is anything more than luck.
- achierius 1y agoTo be fair "guessed every state" carries significantly more bits of information than 3 coin tosses.
- ThePowerOfFuet 1y agoWhat are the chance of guessing 50 coin flips in a row? What are the odds of doing it again four years later?
- slg 1y ago
- CGMthrowaway 1y agoThe authors do not suggest using this model for prediction. FTA: “We do not claim to predict the outcome of the Conclave,” Soda points out. “As the great statistician George Box said: ‘All models are wrong, but some are useful.’ Ours is intended to be a tool for reading the context, not an oracle.”
- rbanffy 1y agoEvery prediction, once divulged, affects its own outcome. Some prophecies are self fulfilling while others are self preventing (and, therefore, “antiphecies”)