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And yet some people think AI will take over jobs. I am amazed this robot was not in place 20 years ago. Really ?

by danielovichdk 1y ago

krapp 1y ago
I don't understand why people still express doubt about this - AI already is and has been taking over jobs.
- varelse 1y ago
  [dead]
- lesuorac 1y ago
  It's really about the hype that is the problem and that people often mean LLMs when they say AI. LLM isn't going to drive a forklift; it needs more agency than a textbox in order to do that. But it's really going to be products (ex. Microsoft Word) rather than a technology (ex. Electricity) that'll replace jobs (ex. Typists).
conception 1y ago
Human labor is shockingly cheap.
- bayindirh 1y ago
  Actually it's pretty expensive in the long run. They want raises, are finicky about their health, have pesky habits like going home, having life partners and something silly called work/life balance. Also, they sometimes organize and become collective bodies under something called a union. In reality, I'm a strong supporter of everything above. Maybe we can really provide people better jobs by delegating repetitive and boring things to machines and allow everyone to do something they enjoy to earn their lives. One can dream, I guess...
  - maintainarmsx 1y ago
    >are finicky about their health Machines are anything but reliable. They need constant servicing and maintenance and still break entirely
    - bayindirh 1y ago
      Depends on how they're built, and building them takes experience. Plus, if their MTBF is long enough with enough hot spares, you can rotate the problematic ones out fix them while they are being replaced from the hot-spares pool. When you are not budget constrained, and building things for businesses, a little overengineering goes a long way. I have a Xerox 7500DN color laser printer next to me, and it's working for more than 20 years at this point. It has gone through a lot of spares, but most (if not all) issues are from parts wearing down naturally. Nothing breaks unexpectedly on that. Same for robots. Give enough design budget, overengineer a little, and that thing will be one hell of an ugly but reliable machinery. When you work with real "industrial" stuff, the landscape is very different.
    - bluGill 1y ago
      Humans are not reliable either. Humans are much more likely to be out sick unexpectedly. If you keep up the maintenance plan for machines they rarely break before their predicted retirement date when you replace them. And since the maintenance and retirement dates are predicted in advance you can plan for them and thus ensure they happen when you want them to.
    - jabroni_salad 1y ago
      All moving parts degrade. A nice thing about machines is you can service and refurbish them to like-new condition. There are options to deal with your shitty knees, hip, and back, but none of them get you back to 100% of your original capabilities and, carry an element of gambling, and will involve the kinds of painkillers that can ruin you far more comprehensively than a shitty joint will.
  - immibis 1y ago
    If you have the misfortune to be in a developed country (not the USA) then yes. Worker without rights are evidently pretty cheap. They go home, but you can just get twice as many. Catastrophic self-organization happens on scales comparable to robot crashes, and you can just recycle the offending units and replace them with new ones.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  Amazon warehouse base pay is ~$21-22/hr due to labor supply shortages. https://www.google.com/search?q=amazon+raise+wages+warehouse https://www.google.com/search?q=amazon+raise+wages+warehouse
  - Gracana 1y ago
    That's about 60k a year for the employer, I think? That probably doesn't even cover the BOM cost of this robot installation.
    - toomuchtodo 1y ago
      Robot lasts 6-7 years under typical duty cycles (per FANUC). Think how an EV is cheaper over its lifetime to operate vs a combustion vehicle, capex vs opex. Price of labor will continue to increase in the future due to structural demographics. And lets be real, Amazon warehouse jobs are not good jobs and terribly hard on the human body. No one yearns for the Amazon mines. These are jobs that should absolutely be automated.
      - Gracana 1y ago
        Oh yeah I agree with what you're saying, and of course they're working on this because they think it makes sense to do so, I just figure it's still a tricky sell even to replace $20/h humans. FWIW I design industrial equipment for meat processing plants, where you'd be lucky to get 6-7 months out of a robot arm. I wish it was affordable to use robotics there, because there's a lot that could be done to eliminate some truly awful jobs.
        toomuchtodo 1y ago
        What are the key contributors to reduced robotic longevity, both environmental and duty cycle? How can the robot last longer in harsh environments and aggressive duty cycles?
        1y ago
AIoverlord 1y ago
AI does and its not just 'AI'. We are now switching over to a self optimizing system approach. We had big data and didn't do anything with it but now whenever we do something with an LLM, we give it feedback, its getting processed benchmarked stored and used. ChatGPT 3 was not impressive because it was good, it was impressive because it showed everyone that we started this ara now. This lead to massive reallocation of resources around the globe from a human and money perspective. Whatever we had with ChatGPT-3 was build with humans and money significant less than what we now have. Which leads to progress unseen before and this will continue at least for now.
pjmlp 1y ago
I can tell you that since last month a company now does all their training translations via AI, no more need for the whole translations team. Additionally, this is now a common feature in CMS space, automated translation of content and assets.

And yet some people think AI will take over jobs. I am amazed this robot was not in place 20 years ago. Really ?

krapp 1y ago

I don't understand why people still express doubt about this - AI already is and has been taking over jobs.

varelse 1y ago
[dead]
lesuorac 1y ago
It's really about the hype that is the problem and that people often mean LLMs when they say AI. LLM isn't going to drive a forklift; it needs more agency than a textbox in order to do that. But it's really going to be products (ex. Microsoft Word) rather than a technology (ex. Electricity) that'll replace jobs (ex. Typists).

conception 1y ago

Human labor is shockingly cheap.

bayindirh 1y ago
Actually it's pretty expensive in the long run. They want raises, are finicky about their health, have pesky habits like going home, having life partners and something silly called work/life balance. Also, they sometimes organize and become collective bodies under something called a union. In reality, I'm a strong supporter of everything above. Maybe we can really provide people better jobs by delegating repetitive and boring things to machines and allow everyone to do something they enjoy to earn their lives. One can dream, I guess...
- maintainarmsx 1y ago
  >are finicky about their health Machines are anything but reliable. They need constant servicing and maintenance and still break entirely
  - bayindirh 1y ago
    Depends on how they're built, and building them takes experience. Plus, if their MTBF is long enough with enough hot spares, you can rotate the problematic ones out fix them while they are being replaced from the hot-spares pool. When you are not budget constrained, and building things for businesses, a little overengineering goes a long way. I have a Xerox 7500DN color laser printer next to me, and it's working for more than 20 years at this point. It has gone through a lot of spares, but most (if not all) issues are from parts wearing down naturally. Nothing breaks unexpectedly on that. Same for robots. Give enough design budget, overengineer a little, and that thing will be one hell of an ugly but reliable machinery. When you work with real "industrial" stuff, the landscape is very different.
  - bluGill 1y ago
    Humans are not reliable either. Humans are much more likely to be out sick unexpectedly. If you keep up the maintenance plan for machines they rarely break before their predicted retirement date when you replace them. And since the maintenance and retirement dates are predicted in advance you can plan for them and thus ensure they happen when you want them to.
  - jabroni_salad 1y ago
    All moving parts degrade. A nice thing about machines is you can service and refurbish them to like-new condition. There are options to deal with your shitty knees, hip, and back, but none of them get you back to 100% of your original capabilities and, carry an element of gambling, and will involve the kinds of painkillers that can ruin you far more comprehensively than a shitty joint will.
- immibis 1y ago
  If you have the misfortune to be in a developed country (not the USA) then yes. Worker without rights are evidently pretty cheap. They go home, but you can just get twice as many. Catastrophic self-organization happens on scales comparable to robot crashes, and you can just recycle the offending units and replace them with new ones.
toomuchtodo 1y ago
Amazon warehouse base pay is ~$21-22/hr due to labor supply shortages. https://www.google.com/search?q=amazon+raise+wages+warehouse https://www.google.com/search?q=amazon+raise+wages+warehouse
- Gracana 1y ago
  That's about 60k a year for the employer, I think? That probably doesn't even cover the BOM cost of this robot installation.
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    Robot lasts 6-7 years under typical duty cycles (per FANUC). Think how an EV is cheaper over its lifetime to operate vs a combustion vehicle, capex vs opex. Price of labor will continue to increase in the future due to structural demographics. And lets be real, Amazon warehouse jobs are not good jobs and terribly hard on the human body. No one yearns for the Amazon mines. These are jobs that should absolutely be automated.
    - Gracana 1y ago
      Oh yeah I agree with what you're saying, and of course they're working on this because they think it makes sense to do so, I just figure it's still a tricky sell even to replace $20/h humans. FWIW I design industrial equipment for meat processing plants, where you'd be lucky to get 6-7 months out of a robot arm. I wish it was affordable to use robotics there, because there's a lot that could be done to eliminate some truly awful jobs.
      - toomuchtodo 1y ago
        What are the key contributors to reduced robotic longevity, both environmental and duty cycle? How can the robot last longer in harsh environments and aggressive duty cycles?
        1y ago

AIoverlord 1y ago

AI does and its not just 'AI'. We are now switching over to a self optimizing system approach. We had big data and didn't do anything with it but now whenever we do something with an LLM, we give it feedback, its getting processed benchmarked stored and used. ChatGPT 3 was not impressive because it was good, it was impressive because it showed everyone that we started this ara now. This lead to massive reallocation of resources around the globe from a human and money perspective. Whatever we had with ChatGPT-3 was build with humans and money significant less than what we now have. Which leads to progress unseen before and this will continue at least for now.

pjmlp 1y ago

I can tell you that since last month a company now does all their training translations via AI, no more need for the whole translations team. Additionally, this is now a common feature in CMS space, automated translation of content and assets.