That it seems hard (impossible) or not clear intuitively how to go about it, to us humans, is what makes the question interesting. In a way. The other questions

That it seems hard (impossible) or not clear intuitively how to go about it, to us humans, is what makes the question interesting. In a way. The other questions are interesting but a different class of interesting. At any rate, both good for this question. Either way this becomes "what would we need to estimate this emergence threshold?".