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Related: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43927371 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43927371 > Ontario set to begin construction of Canada's first mini
by barbazoo 1y ago
Related: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43927371 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43927371
> Ontario set to begin construction of Canada's first mini nuclear power plant
- bryanlarsen 1y ago$20B for 300MW, and that's before the inevitable massive cost overruns. Continuing the Ontario provincial government's history of lighting taxpayer money on fire for electricity.
- chickenbig 1y ago> $20B for 300MW Estimated 20B CAD for 4 x 300MW power stations.
- throwaway2037 1y agoIs that competitive compared to solar/wind + battery? I doubt it.
- bryanlarsen 1y agoThe press release claims it is. But other jurisdictions can build 1GW of solar + battery for $2B.
- christina97 1y agoKeep in mind that 1 GW solar does not equate to 1 GW firm production.
- _aavaa_ 1y agoThen build 10x for the same sticker price as these 4 SMRs. You'll have it done in less time, and likely even cheaper than the final cost of these 4.
- epistasis 1y agoIn the US, the equivalent to 1GW nuclear would be something like 4GW solar + 18GWh storage. Though it's not fully equivalent because solar + storage is far more flexible and would make a lot more money on the grid, since it can shift power to when it's needed rather than being a constant base of power. At old NREL prices that would be $4.3B for the solar, and $7.4B for the storage, but the lifetimes don't match up with nuclear either. You'd need to replace the storage after 15-20 years, and the solar after 30 years, if the nuclear plant is going to get a lifetime extension to 50 or 60 years. But 15 years from now, prices for batteries and solar will be far far far lower, we just have no clue how much.
- _aavaa_ 1y agoIn addition to this, the nuclear plant also needs both major component replacements and refurbishments over it's life, and then decommissioning at end of life, neither of which are cheap or accounted for in the sticker price. Do you know if there's enough of a market yet for battery recycling at utility scale, and if they pay you to get the old battery?
- epistasis 1y agoI know that there are several battery recycling startups, and their biggest hurdle is lack of batteries to recycle. Also that the amount recovered is high enough, and manufacturing progress a fast enough, that a recycled battery will have greater capacity than the original battery.
- throwaway2037 1y ago> In the US, the equivalent to 1GW nuclear would be something like 4GW solar + 18GWh storage. Are you speaking about the precision location of this planned project, or generally about the United States? Really, the US is way too big to generalise about solar efficiency. Compare New England to Southwest US will have massively different solar coefficients. The same is true in Europe: Compare Scotland to Central Spain. Wildly different solar coefficients.
- coryrc 1y agoHow much solar does Ontario get during the heating season?
- _aavaa_ 1y agoIt isn't even competitive with other nuclear reactors.
- _aavaa_ 1y ago4x300 MWe for 20.9B CAD for this vs Vogtle 3 and 4 are 2x 1117 MWe for 36.8B USD. So the starting stated price is only 20% cheaper than that train wreck. Will love to see how high this number gets given it's a first of its kind.
- epistasis 1y agoIt will likely be more expensive than Vogtle, smaller reactors are just more expensive and they go big because it's more cost effective. What's slightly different is the financial risk profile. Failing on a 1x 300WM $5B project is slightly easier than a $18B 1GW project. My personal hypothesis is that nuclear decisions are made almost entirely along financial lines, instead of the safety concerns that dominate most debate about nuclear.
- _aavaa_ 1y agoI think this is actually backwards. The reactors are build big to get economies of scale. Building 4 small ones, each of which will also go over budget, only to produce a more expensive product out of each (electricity) puts your economics backwards.
- epistasis 1y agoIt's about the amount of capital at risk, not the per kWh unit economics. The risk is of complete failure of build and getting $0.
- _aavaa_ 1y agoI don’t know of that many plants that failed to finishing building after construction started. Unit economics are important. Managing to build doesn’t mean much if you can’t turn a profit.
- philipkglass 1y agoThis list has 43 reactors that started construction in the US but never finished: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_canceled_nuclear_reactors_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_canceled_nuclear_react... That's a lot considering that the US currently has 94 operating power reactors: https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryDetails.aspx?current=US https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryDetails....