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Ugh. Please. Get off the hypetrain already. Developers aren't going to be replaced by AI. Have you seen how BAD this stuff is? It might assist you in certain

by akulbe 1y ago

Ugh. Please. Get off the hypetrain already. Developers aren't going to be replaced by AI. Have you seen how BAD this stuff is? It might assist you in certain use cases, but it's not going to replace you. "AI" is neither artificial, nor intelligent. It's next token prediction, and it's still laughable what things it comes up with. It will *NOT* replace a human developer who knows what they're doing and is actually capable of reason.

atleastoptimal 1y ago
AI is capable of reason. Most AI models today have the superhuman breadth of knowledge but the long-context intuition of a 4 year old. However only a year ago they were no better than a 2 year old. Every few months, many of the things people said AI could never do, the best models are able to do. Is there a reason why this trend will just suddenly stop short of full human intellect? It's like assuming that humans could never invent a machine that can go faster than a human, or build anything taller than a human. Intelligence is a process of identifying patterns. Humans simply now just have a scale advantage over AI models (100T-1000T synapses in a human brain vs 2-10T parameters in the biggest models). >It's next token prediction Just because the architecture is simple doesn't mean intelligence can't emerge from it. It's like claiming the human brain can't be more complex than the human genome.
muzani 1y ago
Anthropic released a study on it quite recently: https://www.anthropic.com/news/the-anthropic-economic-index https://www.anthropic.com/news/the-anthropic-economic-index It splits tasks into augmentation (upgrading jobs) vs automation (taking jobs). But it's actually hard to separate the two - someone could ask for a full website then modify the code, which becomes augmentation. Ironically software, especially web dev is at the top of the list. I just talked to someone yesterday who opted not to hire a designer who was being a little pushy in negotiations, and they opted to just hire v0 which would do the same thing faster. At the very least, it's replacing part-timers. We're also seeing teams shrink and churn and being replaced by less experienced (cheaper) members. That's not "taking jobs" either, but it's reducing the demand for seniors as more junior people are able to take on more senior responsibilities.

by akulbe 1y ago

atleastoptimal 1y ago

AI is capable of reason. Most AI models today have the superhuman breadth of knowledge but the long-context intuition of a 4 year old. However only a year ago they were no better than a 2 year old. Every few months, many of the things people said AI could never do, the best models are able to do. Is there a reason why this trend will just suddenly stop short of full human intellect? It's like assuming that humans could never invent a machine that can go faster than a human, or build anything taller than a human. Intelligence is a process of identifying patterns. Humans simply now just have a scale advantage over AI models (100T-1000T synapses in a human brain vs 2-10T parameters in the biggest models). >It's next token prediction Just because the architecture is simple doesn't mean intelligence can't emerge from it. It's like claiming the human brain can't be more complex than the human genome.

muzani 1y ago

Anthropic released a study on it quite recently: https://www.anthropic.com/news/the-anthropic-economic-index https://www.anthropic.com/news/the-anthropic-economic-index It splits tasks into augmentation (upgrading jobs) vs automation (taking jobs). But it's actually hard to separate the two - someone could ask for a full website then modify the code, which becomes augmentation. Ironically software, especially web dev is at the top of the list. I just talked to someone yesterday who opted not to hire a designer who was being a little pushy in negotiations, and they opted to just hire v0 which would do the same thing faster. At the very least, it's replacing part-timers. We're also seeing teams shrink and churn and being replaced by less experienced (cheaper) members. That's not "taking jobs" either, but it's reducing the demand for seniors as more junior people are able to take on more senior responsibilities.