3 ms·
Globalization has led to most countries deluding themselves about supply chain vulnerabilities for a long time. COVID was the first shock. Now Trump's tariffs
by busterarm 1y ago
Globalization has led to most countries deluding themselves about supply chain vulnerabilities for a long time. COVID was the first shock. Now Trump's tariffs are the second.
- kspacewalk2 1y agoHowever, I think people grossly overestimate the degree to which this state of affairs is static. If the supply chain shows itself to be vulnerable, economies often adjust quite easily. Even when it's not "easy", like natural gas in Europe post-2022, it's still very much doable without too much hullabaloo and frozen seniors. Point being: if it no longer makes sense to import 38% of blood from the US or whatever, it'll be imported from elsewhere or made locally, and that's pretty much the whole story. This is true of most goods and services, though not all.
- busterarm 1y agoThat's only really true for raw materials and assemblies. Chip production is the very obvious and real hole in this argument. It'll take half to a full decade to get new chip fabs up to what TSMC's Taiwan fabs are doing now. Quality steel production and machining is going to take time and investment as well.