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This. LLMs have ended the need for white collar junior work. Recent grads at this point are just a legal/tax (sec 174) liability - a great way to get a law suit

This. LLMs have ended the need for white collar junior work. Recent grads at this point are just a legal/tax (sec 174) liability - a great way to get a law suite. Colleges need to pivot fast.

caturopath 1y ago
A prediction that will prove mostly immune to the change in "this year".
FirmwareBurner 1y ago
>LLMs have ended the need for white collar junior work. I think the high interest rates, poor consumer economic situation and remote work with outsourcing did way more to damage that jobs market than LLMs right now. I am yet to hear jobs being replaced with LLMs but I hear about jobs moved to cheaper locations all the time. LLMs make workers more efficient at easy, low-stakes repetitive shit but don't fully replace them. Yet. They also don't replace accountability. A lot of times managers/corporations just hire to have a scapegoat to throw under the bus if the shit hits the fan. You can fire and intern for doing something wrong, you can't fire a LLM that fucks up, it's still the user to blame. Couple with the bullwhip effect of too many grads going to University chasing those lucrative white collar jobs from the covid boom days and this is what you get. >Recent grads at this point are just a legal/tax (sec 174) liability Sounds like a US specific self inflicted problem.
- HPsquared 1y ago
  You don't take a worker and explicitly replace them with an LLM (unless it's a customer service agent or something)... It looks more like, the company just doesn't need as many people for a given job type but it's not a 1:1 replacement at an individual level.
  - vonmoltke 1y ago
    The GGP said, "LLMs have ended the need for white collar junior work". That claim is that LLMs are a "1:1 replacement at an individual level", and this is what the GP was responding to.
    - HPsquared 1y ago
      I read "ended the need for" in terms of the overall situation. When I say they're not 1:1 replacement, that's a possible reason why it might not look directly like people are being replaced, even though it may still be happening in the aggregate.
indymike 1y ago
They are pretty good at most white collar jobs. Blue collar not so much. > Colleges need to pivot fast. The problem is the same everywhere - the management (administration) has grown like a mushroom. We need more profs and instructors because oral exams are the only way to verify knowledge that can't be easily gamed - aside bribes. That's scary because ethics are not what they once were.
pjc50 1y ago
Pivot to what?
- FirmwareBurner 1y ago
  Towards other fully WFH white collar careers: OnlyFans and Twitch streaming. We're speed running towards the Idiocracy timeline where humanity is too stupid to do anything but be employed in the ad driven attention economy.
singleshot_ 1y ago
> Recent grads at this point are just a legal/tax (sec 174) liability The opposite of a liability is a deduction
John23832 1y ago
> LLMs have ended the need for white collar junior work. If you think that juniors are solely for doing the low level work (which is wrong). The purpose of the junior is to work towards becoming senior (in experience and capability). Doing the the bs work is just an additional use of their time. Your thinking is akin to the belief that the purpose of the medical residency is to do examinations and not to become a full fledged doctor.
jameshart 1y ago
The need for white collar juniors will become achingly apparent when we realize in a few years we have no white collar seniors.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
ben_w 1y ago
LLMs are currently at the level of a fresh graduate, not even someone with 2 years of real-world experience. While I expect this to change, I don't know how fast, nor where the ceiling is — always the trouble with S-curves, you can never tell how close you are to the mid-point, and with even a tiny bit of noise you can't even tell which side of the mid-point you are.

This. LLMs have ended the need for white collar junior work. Recent grads at this point are just a legal/tax (sec 174) liability - a great way to get a law suite. Colleges need to pivot fast.

caturopath 1y ago

A prediction that will prove mostly immune to the change in "this year".

FirmwareBurner 1y ago

>LLMs have ended the need for white collar junior work. I think the high interest rates, poor consumer economic situation and remote work with outsourcing did way more to damage that jobs market than LLMs right now. I am yet to hear jobs being replaced with LLMs but I hear about jobs moved to cheaper locations all the time. LLMs make workers more efficient at easy, low-stakes repetitive shit but don't fully replace them. Yet. They also don't replace accountability. A lot of times managers/corporations just hire to have a scapegoat to throw under the bus if the shit hits the fan. You can fire and intern for doing something wrong, you can't fire a LLM that fucks up, it's still the user to blame. Couple with the bullwhip effect of too many grads going to University chasing those lucrative white collar jobs from the covid boom days and this is what you get. >Recent grads at this point are just a legal/tax (sec 174) liability Sounds like a US specific self inflicted problem.

HPsquared 1y ago
You don't take a worker and explicitly replace them with an LLM (unless it's a customer service agent or something)... It looks more like, the company just doesn't need as many people for a given job type but it's not a 1:1 replacement at an individual level.
- vonmoltke 1y ago
  The GGP said, "LLMs have ended the need for white collar junior work". That claim is that LLMs are a "1:1 replacement at an individual level", and this is what the GP was responding to.
  - HPsquared 1y ago
    I read "ended the need for" in terms of the overall situation. When I say they're not 1:1 replacement, that's a possible reason why it might not look directly like people are being replaced, even though it may still be happening in the aggregate.

indymike 1y ago

They are pretty good at most white collar jobs. Blue collar not so much. > Colleges need to pivot fast. The problem is the same everywhere - the management (administration) has grown like a mushroom. We need more profs and instructors because oral exams are the only way to verify knowledge that can't be easily gamed - aside bribes. That's scary because ethics are not what they once were.

pjc50 1y ago

Pivot to what?

FirmwareBurner 1y ago
Towards other fully WFH white collar careers: OnlyFans and Twitch streaming. We're speed running towards the Idiocracy timeline where humanity is too stupid to do anything but be employed in the ad driven attention economy.

singleshot_ 1y ago

> Recent grads at this point are just a legal/tax (sec 174) liability The opposite of a liability is a deduction

John23832 1y ago

> LLMs have ended the need for white collar junior work. If you think that juniors are solely for doing the low level work (which is wrong). The purpose of the junior is to work towards becoming senior (in experience and capability). Doing the the bs work is just an additional use of their time. Your thinking is akin to the belief that the purpose of the medical residency is to do examinations and not to become a full fledged doctor.

jameshart 1y ago

The need for white collar juniors will become achingly apparent when we realize in a few years we have no white collar seniors.

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]

ben_w 1y ago

LLMs are currently at the level of a fresh graduate, not even someone with 2 years of real-world experience. While I expect this to change, I don't know how fast, nor where the ceiling is — always the trouble with S-curves, you can never tell how close you are to the mid-point, and with even a tiny bit of noise you can't even tell which side of the mid-point you are.