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I agree with you now, but I also remember everyone, all kinds of experts, saying Putin is just postering. I think it's important to remember that. It is import

by navane 1y ago

I agree with you now, but I also remember everyone, all kinds of experts, saying Putin is just postering. I think it's important to remember that. It is important to note when things are not normal. Putin actually invading Ukraine was a very unexpected move. Unfortunately, we as people are very good at rationalizing after the fact "oh of course this was coming", shrugging our shoulders and just moving on as if nothing happened. "It is what it is, this too shall pass".

lostlogin 1y ago
> Putin actually invading Ukraine was a very unexpected move. Was it? The scale was surprising, but troop build ups were noted ahead of time and Russia had been fighting in Ukraine for many years. Am I misremembering?
- megous 1y ago
  Yes, even Russian soldiers were surprised when they were suddenly marching to Ukraine. Buildups were happening repeatedly in the past under the guise of exercises. Eg. here tanks and ~80k soldiers in 2018: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-military-buildup.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-russ...
- anonymars 1y ago
  Very much so. The Biden administration was sounding the alarm, loudly, and the general vibe was, "well that wouldn't make any sense, there goes America crying wolf again like Iraq" Here was one example: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-wrong-intelligence/32275740.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-... See also: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/why-ukrainians-dont-believe-in-war-with-russia-distrust-west https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/why-ukrainians-dont...
- justin66 1y ago
  You're not misremembering. The US government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen, the Ukrainian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen, and the Russian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen. The mainstream media warned everyone the invasion was going to happen, and the financial markets responded. Some people don't have the sense to come in out of the rain.
  - llm_nerd 1y ago
    >the Ukrainian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen Quite contrary, the Ukrainian government was publicly saying that it was all bluffing. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60174684 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60174684 Zelensky repeatedly said that the West was creating a panic. Ukraine's repelling of the attack was heroic and legendary, but the truth is that if it wasn't for the astonishing incompetence of the Russian assault, where there was a massive traffic jam almost all the way from Belarus to Kyiv, it really would have been a quickly conquered nation. >and the Russian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen But they didn't. Russia kept portraying the build-up as drills with Belarus. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-crisis-putin-says-military-drills-purely-defensive-and-not-a-threat-as-western-leaders-warn-invasion-imminent-12545284 https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-crisis-putin-says-militar... Western intelligence predicted Russia's plans perfectly, but a lot of people were very in denial about it.
    - justin66 1y ago
      I'd forgotten about Zelensky's prewar media strategy. Whoops. Regarding Russia: did the strange televised meeting of Putin's war cabinet (whatever it would be called), wherein everyone went around the room and voted "yes" to invasion even though a couple of them looked like they were in a hostage video, happen before or after tanks rolled into Ukraine? In my mind that's a "prewar" thing but maybe I got the sequence of events wrong? (I'm finding it hard to google this even though it was a fairly important event. Weird.) > Western intelligence predicted Russia's plans perfectly I remember thinking the white house handled communications surrounding the invasion very well, kind of a rare foreign policy bright spot for them. Too bad it didn't make a difference.
      - llm_nerd 1y ago
        That weird meeting I think you're thinking of- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B0mWzB4GOQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B0mWzB4GOQ (I recalled it as well and with normal searching could not find it, even with date winnowing, but asking Gemini 2.5 Pro and it immediately gave me that resource) This meeting happened just before the invasion. Far too late for anyone to really do anything, and long after most of the "are they/aren't they?" discussions happened. Up until that point Russia was repeatedly denying their "special military operation". Just as they denied their invasion of Crimea and their little green men in the Donbas. As an aside, that absolutely bizarre security council meeting is virtually indistinguishable from the North Korea-style Trump administration meetings that we now see weekly, where it's a circle of embarrassingly laughable platitudes and servitudes by a cowed and pathetic administration. >I remember thinking the white house handled communications surrounding the invasion very well They did.
__s 1y ago
Indeed. I took it as a serious threat after seeing prediction markets in February move up to 30% odds of it happening
somenameforme 1y ago
The problem is that posturing can turn into reality (which is perhaps what you're trying to say). I do think Russia was posturing. They began seeking negotiations 4 days after they invaded, and outside of an absurd longshot decapitation strike all of their early maneuvering was much more performative than military in nature. With Ukraine's entry into NATO appearing increasingly imminent, they likely felt they could force matters with a semi-bluff thinking they could catch Ukraine by surprise. Then the West jumped in thinking they could catch Russia by surprise. In the end nobody was really "surprised" and so we got a war that I expect nobody, especially in hindsight, really expected, let alone wanted.
- macintux 1y ago
  > With Ukraine's entry into NATO appearing increasingly imminent Say what? AFAIK, Ukraine wasn’t even eligible for entry due to the organization’s rules on contested territories.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - somenameforme 1y ago
    The most clear trend in modern times is that rules are "flexible" when convenient. Here [1] is the relevant Wiki page, dated to the day before Russia's invasion. NATO had repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine would be accepted into NATO, all that was missing was a date. In the context of this, there was ongoing escalation between Russia and NATO. Russia repeatedly sought any sort of means or agreement to ensure that they wouldn't end up with NATO setup on their doorstep. And NATO increasingly antagonistically disregarded and even belittled such interests. At the same time being ever more provocative with things like NATO-Ukraine military exercises in the Black Sea. It feels very much like the intent was to provoke, especially when this largely parallels the Cuban Missile Crisis with roles reversed. When the USSR wanted to expand their military reach to Cuba, we nearly started a nuclear war over it. And in that case, Cuba doesn't even share a border with the US! So it's not like we simply lacked the ability to understand why they might have a genuine concern here. The reason I backdated the article is because when you read that it sounds exactly like Russia is making their intentions of an invasion, if a compromise cannot be reached, rather unambiguously clear. And so if you read it, with hindsight, one might think it was edited with that outcome in mind. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations&oldid=1073361903#Request_of_guarantees_of_Ukraine's_non-accession_to_NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ukraine%E2%80%93N...

by navane 1y ago

lostlogin 1y ago

> Putin actually invading Ukraine was a very unexpected move. Was it? The scale was surprising, but troop build ups were noted ahead of time and Russia had been fighting in Ukraine for many years. Am I misremembering?

megous 1y ago
Yes, even Russian soldiers were surprised when they were suddenly marching to Ukraine. Buildups were happening repeatedly in the past under the guise of exercises. Eg. here tanks and ~80k soldiers in 2018: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-military-buildup.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-russ...
anonymars 1y ago
Very much so. The Biden administration was sounding the alarm, loudly, and the general vibe was, "well that wouldn't make any sense, there goes America crying wolf again like Iraq" Here was one example: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-wrong-intelligence/32275740.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-... See also: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/why-ukrainians-dont-believe-in-war-with-russia-distrust-west https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/why-ukrainians-dont...
justin66 1y ago
You're not misremembering. The US government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen, the Ukrainian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen, and the Russian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen. The mainstream media warned everyone the invasion was going to happen, and the financial markets responded. Some people don't have the sense to come in out of the rain.
- llm_nerd 1y ago
  >the Ukrainian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen Quite contrary, the Ukrainian government was publicly saying that it was all bluffing. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60174684 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60174684 Zelensky repeatedly said that the West was creating a panic. Ukraine's repelling of the attack was heroic and legendary, but the truth is that if it wasn't for the astonishing incompetence of the Russian assault, where there was a massive traffic jam almost all the way from Belarus to Kyiv, it really would have been a quickly conquered nation. >and the Russian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen But they didn't. Russia kept portraying the build-up as drills with Belarus. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-crisis-putin-says-military-drills-purely-defensive-and-not-a-threat-as-western-leaders-warn-invasion-imminent-12545284 https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-crisis-putin-says-militar... Western intelligence predicted Russia's plans perfectly, but a lot of people were very in denial about it.
  - justin66 1y ago
    I'd forgotten about Zelensky's prewar media strategy. Whoops. Regarding Russia: did the strange televised meeting of Putin's war cabinet (whatever it would be called), wherein everyone went around the room and voted "yes" to invasion even though a couple of them looked like they were in a hostage video, happen before or after tanks rolled into Ukraine? In my mind that's a "prewar" thing but maybe I got the sequence of events wrong? (I'm finding it hard to google this even though it was a fairly important event. Weird.) > Western intelligence predicted Russia's plans perfectly I remember thinking the white house handled communications surrounding the invasion very well, kind of a rare foreign policy bright spot for them. Too bad it didn't make a difference.
    - llm_nerd 1y ago
      That weird meeting I think you're thinking of- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B0mWzB4GOQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B0mWzB4GOQ (I recalled it as well and with normal searching could not find it, even with date winnowing, but asking Gemini 2.5 Pro and it immediately gave me that resource) This meeting happened just before the invasion. Far too late for anyone to really do anything, and long after most of the "are they/aren't they?" discussions happened. Up until that point Russia was repeatedly denying their "special military operation". Just as they denied their invasion of Crimea and their little green men in the Donbas. As an aside, that absolutely bizarre security council meeting is virtually indistinguishable from the North Korea-style Trump administration meetings that we now see weekly, where it's a circle of embarrassingly laughable platitudes and servitudes by a cowed and pathetic administration. >I remember thinking the white house handled communications surrounding the invasion very well They did.

__s 1y ago

Indeed. I took it as a serious threat after seeing prediction markets in February move up to 30% odds of it happening

somenameforme 1y ago

The problem is that posturing can turn into reality (which is perhaps what you're trying to say). I do think Russia was posturing. They began seeking negotiations 4 days after they invaded, and outside of an absurd longshot decapitation strike all of their early maneuvering was much more performative than military in nature. With Ukraine's entry into NATO appearing increasingly imminent, they likely felt they could force matters with a semi-bluff thinking they could catch Ukraine by surprise. Then the West jumped in thinking they could catch Russia by surprise. In the end nobody was really "surprised" and so we got a war that I expect nobody, especially in hindsight, really expected, let alone wanted.

macintux 1y ago
> With Ukraine's entry into NATO appearing increasingly imminent Say what? AFAIK, Ukraine wasn’t even eligible for entry due to the organization’s rules on contested territories.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- somenameforme 1y ago
  The most clear trend in modern times is that rules are "flexible" when convenient. Here [1] is the relevant Wiki page, dated to the day before Russia's invasion. NATO had repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine would be accepted into NATO, all that was missing was a date. In the context of this, there was ongoing escalation between Russia and NATO. Russia repeatedly sought any sort of means or agreement to ensure that they wouldn't end up with NATO setup on their doorstep. And NATO increasingly antagonistically disregarded and even belittled such interests. At the same time being ever more provocative with things like NATO-Ukraine military exercises in the Black Sea. It feels very much like the intent was to provoke, especially when this largely parallels the Cuban Missile Crisis with roles reversed. When the USSR wanted to expand their military reach to Cuba, we nearly started a nuclear war over it. And in that case, Cuba doesn't even share a border with the US! So it's not like we simply lacked the ability to understand why they might have a genuine concern here. The reason I backdated the article is because when you read that it sounds exactly like Russia is making their intentions of an invasion, if a compromise cannot be reached, rather unambiguously clear. And so if you read it, with hindsight, one might think it was edited with that outcome in mind. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations&oldid=1073361903#Request_of_guarantees_of_Ukraine's_non-accession_to_NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ukraine%E2%80%93N...