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The competition to Putin entering Ukraine is obviously ridiculous. Putin had already attacked multiple countries before. Georgia, Chechnya, and leads a vast ne

The competition to Putin entering Ukraine is obviously ridiculous. Putin had already attacked multiple countries before. Georgia, Chechnya, and leads a vast network of para militaries that are fighting all over Africa as well. Heck, Putin had literally attacked and conquered a whole area of Ukraine itself not even a decade ago. Anyone who was saying Putin would not attack Ukraine either had no knowledge at all about how Putin operated or was willfully misleading. India has shown no such imperial intentions that Putin has demonstrated and spoken about multiple times both before and since his attempt to take over Ukraine.

navane 1y ago
I agree with you now, but I also remember everyone, all kinds of experts, saying Putin is just postering. I think it's important to remember that. It is important to note when things are not normal. Putin actually invading Ukraine was a very unexpected move. Unfortunately, we as people are very good at rationalizing after the fact "oh of course this was coming", shrugging our shoulders and just moving on as if nothing happened. "It is what it is, this too shall pass".
- lostlogin 1y ago
  > Putin actually invading Ukraine was a very unexpected move. Was it? The scale was surprising, but troop build ups were noted ahead of time and Russia had been fighting in Ukraine for many years. Am I misremembering?
  - megous 1y ago
    Yes, even Russian soldiers were surprised when they were suddenly marching to Ukraine. Buildups were happening repeatedly in the past under the guise of exercises. Eg. here tanks and ~80k soldiers in 2018: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-military-buildup.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-russ...
  - anonymars 1y ago
    Very much so. The Biden administration was sounding the alarm, loudly, and the general vibe was, "well that wouldn't make any sense, there goes America crying wolf again like Iraq" Here was one example: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-wrong-intelligence/32275740.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-... See also: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/why-ukrainians-dont-believe-in-war-with-russia-distrust-west https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/why-ukrainians-dont...
  - justin66 1y ago
    You're not misremembering. The US government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen, the Ukrainian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen, and the Russian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen. The mainstream media warned everyone the invasion was going to happen, and the financial markets responded. Some people don't have the sense to come in out of the rain.
    - llm_nerd 1y ago
      >the Ukrainian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen Quite contrary, the Ukrainian government was publicly saying that it was all bluffing. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60174684 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60174684 Zelensky repeatedly said that the West was creating a panic. Ukraine's repelling of the attack was heroic and legendary, but the truth is that if it wasn't for the astonishing incompetence of the Russian assault, where there was a massive traffic jam almost all the way from Belarus to Kyiv, it really would have been a quickly conquered nation. >and the Russian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen But they didn't. Russia kept portraying the build-up as drills with Belarus. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-crisis-putin-says-military-drills-purely-defensive-and-not-a-threat-as-western-leaders-warn-invasion-imminent-12545284 https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-crisis-putin-says-militar... Western intelligence predicted Russia's plans perfectly, but a lot of people were very in denial about it.
      - justin66 1y ago
        I'd forgotten about Zelensky's prewar media strategy. Whoops. Regarding Russia: did the strange televised meeting of Putin's war cabinet (whatever it would be called), wherein everyone went around the room and voted "yes" to invasion even though a couple of them looked like they were in a hostage video, happen before or after tanks rolled into Ukraine? In my mind that's a "prewar" thing but maybe I got the sequence of events wrong? (I'm finding it hard to google this even though it was a fairly important event. Weird.) > Western intelligence predicted Russia's plans perfectly I remember thinking the white house handled communications surrounding the invasion very well, kind of a rare foreign policy bright spot for them. Too bad it didn't make a difference.
- __s 1y ago
  Indeed. I took it as a serious threat after seeing prediction markets in February move up to 30% odds of it happening
- somenameforme 1y ago
  The problem is that posturing can turn into reality (which is perhaps what you're trying to say). I do think Russia was posturing. They began seeking negotiations 4 days after they invaded, and outside of an absurd longshot decapitation strike all of their early maneuvering was much more performative than military in nature. With Ukraine's entry into NATO appearing increasingly imminent, they likely felt they could force matters with a semi-bluff thinking they could catch Ukraine by surprise. Then the West jumped in thinking they could catch Russia by surprise. In the end nobody was really "surprised" and so we got a war that I expect nobody, especially in hindsight, really expected, let alone wanted.
  - macintux 1y ago
    > With Ukraine's entry into NATO appearing increasingly imminent Say what? AFAIK, Ukraine wasn’t even eligible for entry due to the organization’s rules on contested territories.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - somenameforme 1y ago
      The most clear trend in modern times is that rules are "flexible" when convenient. Here [1] is the relevant Wiki page, dated to the day before Russia's invasion. NATO had repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine would be accepted into NATO, all that was missing was a date. In the context of this, there was ongoing escalation between Russia and NATO. Russia repeatedly sought any sort of means or agreement to ensure that they wouldn't end up with NATO setup on their doorstep. And NATO increasingly antagonistically disregarded and even belittled such interests. At the same time being ever more provocative with things like NATO-Ukraine military exercises in the Black Sea. It feels very much like the intent was to provoke, especially when this largely parallels the Cuban Missile Crisis with roles reversed. When the USSR wanted to expand their military reach to Cuba, we nearly started a nuclear war over it. And in that case, Cuba doesn't even share a border with the US! So it's not like we simply lacked the ability to understand why they might have a genuine concern here. The reason I backdated the article is because when you read that it sounds exactly like Russia is making their intentions of an invasion, if a compromise cannot be reached, rather unambiguously clear. And so if you read it, with hindsight, one might think it was edited with that outcome in mind. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations&oldid=1073361903#Request_of_guarantees_of_Ukraine's_non-accession_to_NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ukraine%E2%80%93N...
anticodon 1y ago
> Putin had already attacked multiple countries before. Georgia, Chechnya As always, westerners leave in an information bubble. Chechnya was always a part of Russia. It was a civil war. Ukraine was always a part of Russia until 1991, btw, there was never a separate country called "Ukraine" before 1991 - you can easily find that even in Western history books, although I'm sure they'll be rewritten in some way soon, if not already. Georgia launched attack in 2008, it is easily confirmed by: 1. News from that time (there was a several days delay between Georgia attack and when Medvedev decided to respond, during that time Putin called a press conference and said: "Georgia has started an attack and is bombing civilians, but Western press is silent about it". You can still find recordings of that press conference on video hosting sites, I believe. 2. There was an independent EU investigation that also confirmed that Georgia started the attack in 2008. 3. Last year Georgian government itself confirmed that they were attacking first. It never cease to amaze me in what distorted information reality people live. BTW, it's for the best, because it was the reason why West could coerce Georgia into starting a war in 2008. All the population, including the top politics lived in an alternative reality, so they basically said to Georgia: "Russia is weak and corrupt, they have no army, no weapons, they have only shovels, and even their shovels are rusty. So you'll easily get what you want without any resistance." Actually, more or less the same repeated in 2022. Just read HN comments from 2022: "Russians are surrendering by tens of thousands a day, they don't want to fight with warm and welcoming and kind Ukrainian soldiers", "Ukraine burns thousands of Russian tanks and armored vehicles a day: here's a photo proof", etc, etc. So this distortion of reality works the other way round, when West bases its actions on it. There are lies from top to bottom, and then everyone makes all kinds of decisions based on those lies.
- actionfromafar 1y ago
  You can call it whatever you want, Russia is killing a lot of people in places which used to be peaceful.
  - ponector 1y ago
    Funny twist is they are killing people on territories which have been friendly to russia, mostly used russian language in private life. Friendly doesn't mean they want to be occupied, though.
Mountain_Skies 1y ago
>Putin >India Interesting how in one case it's the leader of the country doing the invading and in the other it's the country doing it without the leader behind it mentioned.
- criddell 1y ago
  Because one is a real democracy, the other is a dictatorship.

navane 1y ago

I agree with you now, but I also remember everyone, all kinds of experts, saying Putin is just postering. I think it's important to remember that. It is important to note when things are not normal. Putin actually invading Ukraine was a very unexpected move. Unfortunately, we as people are very good at rationalizing after the fact "oh of course this was coming", shrugging our shoulders and just moving on as if nothing happened. "It is what it is, this too shall pass".

lostlogin 1y ago
> Putin actually invading Ukraine was a very unexpected move. Was it? The scale was surprising, but troop build ups were noted ahead of time and Russia had been fighting in Ukraine for many years. Am I misremembering?
- megous 1y ago
  Yes, even Russian soldiers were surprised when they were suddenly marching to Ukraine. Buildups were happening repeatedly in the past under the guise of exercises. Eg. here tanks and ~80k soldiers in 2018: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-military-buildup.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-russ...
- anonymars 1y ago
  Very much so. The Biden administration was sounding the alarm, loudly, and the general vibe was, "well that wouldn't make any sense, there goes America crying wolf again like Iraq" Here was one example: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-wrong-intelligence/32275740.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-... See also: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/why-ukrainians-dont-believe-in-war-with-russia-distrust-west https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/why-ukrainians-dont...
- justin66 1y ago
  You're not misremembering. The US government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen, the Ukrainian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen, and the Russian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen. The mainstream media warned everyone the invasion was going to happen, and the financial markets responded. Some people don't have the sense to come in out of the rain.
  - llm_nerd 1y ago
    >the Ukrainian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen Quite contrary, the Ukrainian government was publicly saying that it was all bluffing. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60174684 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60174684 Zelensky repeatedly said that the West was creating a panic. Ukraine's repelling of the attack was heroic and legendary, but the truth is that if it wasn't for the astonishing incompetence of the Russian assault, where there was a massive traffic jam almost all the way from Belarus to Kyiv, it really would have been a quickly conquered nation. >and the Russian government warned everyone the invasion was really going to happen But they didn't. Russia kept portraying the build-up as drills with Belarus. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-crisis-putin-says-military-drills-purely-defensive-and-not-a-threat-as-western-leaders-warn-invasion-imminent-12545284 https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-crisis-putin-says-militar... Western intelligence predicted Russia's plans perfectly, but a lot of people were very in denial about it.
    - justin66 1y ago
      I'd forgotten about Zelensky's prewar media strategy. Whoops. Regarding Russia: did the strange televised meeting of Putin's war cabinet (whatever it would be called), wherein everyone went around the room and voted "yes" to invasion even though a couple of them looked like they were in a hostage video, happen before or after tanks rolled into Ukraine? In my mind that's a "prewar" thing but maybe I got the sequence of events wrong? (I'm finding it hard to google this even though it was a fairly important event. Weird.) > Western intelligence predicted Russia's plans perfectly I remember thinking the white house handled communications surrounding the invasion very well, kind of a rare foreign policy bright spot for them. Too bad it didn't make a difference.
__s 1y ago
Indeed. I took it as a serious threat after seeing prediction markets in February move up to 30% odds of it happening
somenameforme 1y ago
The problem is that posturing can turn into reality (which is perhaps what you're trying to say). I do think Russia was posturing. They began seeking negotiations 4 days after they invaded, and outside of an absurd longshot decapitation strike all of their early maneuvering was much more performative than military in nature. With Ukraine's entry into NATO appearing increasingly imminent, they likely felt they could force matters with a semi-bluff thinking they could catch Ukraine by surprise. Then the West jumped in thinking they could catch Russia by surprise. In the end nobody was really "surprised" and so we got a war that I expect nobody, especially in hindsight, really expected, let alone wanted.
- macintux 1y ago
  > With Ukraine's entry into NATO appearing increasingly imminent Say what? AFAIK, Ukraine wasn’t even eligible for entry due to the organization’s rules on contested territories.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - somenameforme 1y ago
    The most clear trend in modern times is that rules are "flexible" when convenient. Here [1] is the relevant Wiki page, dated to the day before Russia's invasion. NATO had repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine would be accepted into NATO, all that was missing was a date. In the context of this, there was ongoing escalation between Russia and NATO. Russia repeatedly sought any sort of means or agreement to ensure that they wouldn't end up with NATO setup on their doorstep. And NATO increasingly antagonistically disregarded and even belittled such interests. At the same time being ever more provocative with things like NATO-Ukraine military exercises in the Black Sea. It feels very much like the intent was to provoke, especially when this largely parallels the Cuban Missile Crisis with roles reversed. When the USSR wanted to expand their military reach to Cuba, we nearly started a nuclear war over it. And in that case, Cuba doesn't even share a border with the US! So it's not like we simply lacked the ability to understand why they might have a genuine concern here. The reason I backdated the article is because when you read that it sounds exactly like Russia is making their intentions of an invasion, if a compromise cannot be reached, rather unambiguously clear. And so if you read it, with hindsight, one might think it was edited with that outcome in mind. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations&oldid=1073361903#Request_of_guarantees_of_Ukraine's_non-accession_to_NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ukraine%E2%80%93N...

anticodon 1y ago

> Putin had already attacked multiple countries before. Georgia, Chechnya As always, westerners leave in an information bubble. Chechnya was always a part of Russia. It was a civil war. Ukraine was always a part of Russia until 1991, btw, there was never a separate country called "Ukraine" before 1991 - you can easily find that even in Western history books, although I'm sure they'll be rewritten in some way soon, if not already. Georgia launched attack in 2008, it is easily confirmed by: 1. News from that time (there was a several days delay between Georgia attack and when Medvedev decided to respond, during that time Putin called a press conference and said: "Georgia has started an attack and is bombing civilians, but Western press is silent about it". You can still find recordings of that press conference on video hosting sites, I believe. 2. There was an independent EU investigation that also confirmed that Georgia started the attack in 2008. 3. Last year Georgian government itself confirmed that they were attacking first. It never cease to amaze me in what distorted information reality people live. BTW, it's for the best, because it was the reason why West could coerce Georgia into starting a war in 2008. All the population, including the top politics lived in an alternative reality, so they basically said to Georgia: "Russia is weak and corrupt, they have no army, no weapons, they have only shovels, and even their shovels are rusty. So you'll easily get what you want without any resistance." Actually, more or less the same repeated in 2022. Just read HN comments from 2022: "Russians are surrendering by tens of thousands a day, they don't want to fight with warm and welcoming and kind Ukrainian soldiers", "Ukraine burns thousands of Russian tanks and armored vehicles a day: here's a photo proof", etc, etc. So this distortion of reality works the other way round, when West bases its actions on it. There are lies from top to bottom, and then everyone makes all kinds of decisions based on those lies.

actionfromafar 1y ago
You can call it whatever you want, Russia is killing a lot of people in places which used to be peaceful.
- ponector 1y ago
  Funny twist is they are killing people on territories which have been friendly to russia, mostly used russian language in private life. Friendly doesn't mean they want to be occupied, though.

Mountain_Skies 1y ago

>Putin >India Interesting how in one case it's the leader of the country doing the invading and in the other it's the country doing it without the leader behind it mentioned.

criddell 1y ago
Because one is a real democracy, the other is a dictatorship.