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> Zero chance. The problem is China As I mentioned previously, the China factor is significant but overstated. And I'm fairly hawkish about China. UAE and KSA

> Zero chance. The problem is China As I mentioned previously, the China factor is significant but overstated. And I'm fairly hawkish about China. UAE and KSA have equally as much if not more leverage on Pakistani elite than China. Majority of Pakistan's trade is devoted to the UAE and KSA, and most leadership (military, political, and business) has family and financial relations in both countries. In addition, the UAE and KSA's sovereign wealth funds own the bulk of Pakistan's core assets like K-Power, PIA, Karachi Port, etc. Furthermore, the classic Pakistani Army retirement strategy is to become a mid-level officer in the Saudi Land Forces, due to past recruitment. And finally, a similar amount of Pakistani weapons systems are NATO adjacent from previous American procurement, so Pakistan has leveraged Turkiye as a hedge against being overly dependent on China. > But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace On the India side the same people who were negotiating normalization with Bajwa remain. The only change has happened in the last couple years is IK was ousted by Bajwa, and then he was ousted by Munir. Munir was DG ISI during Balakot, and immediately demoted to Corps Commander in the direct aftermath of the LeT attack (who like other militant orgs have gotten support from the ISI, but not as much from the Army). It's Munir's clique that appears to be trying to use this to solidify their hold within Pakistan. India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it. Pakistan needs a Musharraf again.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
Nobody is threatening to topple Islamabad. UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes. The relevant players are in Beijing and Washington. > India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  > UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes 2019 is a good example of UAE using it's heft [0][1]. In a couple years we'll probably see leaks in Bloomberg or AJ about KSA doing something similar rn. > India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace. Both have worked on reconciliation immediately before some incident arises that causes talks to collapse. For example, the last couple months before this incident happened [2], in 2021 thanks to the UAE [1][3] before Bajwa-IK-Munir's tussle, 2017-18 before Balakot according to Cathy Scott-Clark and Adrian Levy [4], and 2016 before the Pathankot Attack [5]. In most cases, both attempts are made at negotiating normalization, but some faction attempts to undermine it. And there were multiple other examples before the Modi admin, at least 2-3 other attempts in the MMS-Musharraf admin and 1 attempt in the Vajpayee-Sharif admin, but they were all undermined by some faction in the Pak Armed forces. I'd recommend reading "The Spy Chronicles" by AS Dulat (former head of India's intel agency) and Asad Durrani (former head of Pakistan's intel agency) where they decided to leak a number of these incidents. The book ended up causing a major political scandal in both India and Pakistan. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-28/india-and-pakistan-the-uae-is-seeking-a-new-role-as-peacemaker https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-28/india-... [1] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-plan https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-... [2] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2460279/fm-says-govt-to-seriously-consider-reviving-trade-with-india https://tribune.com.pk/story/2460279/fm-says-govt-to-serious... [3] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/secret-india-pakistan-peace-roadmap-brokered-by-top-uae-royals https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/secret-in... [4] - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14799855.2019.1665516 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14799855.2019.16... [5] - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35240272 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35240272
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > 2019 is a good example of UAE using it's heft This is not projecting power, it's the UAE (and Qatar) playing their aspirational roles as the new Davos/Switzerland for diplomacy. Pakistan is definitely more anti-peace than India. But while Islamabad undermines peace, New Delhi is mostly uninterested in it.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      > Pakistan is definitely more anti-peace than India. But while Islamabad undermines peace, New Delhi is mostly uninterested in it. That's a framing I agree with. > This is not projecting power, it's the UAE (and Qatar) playing their aspirational roles as the new Davos/Switzerland for diplomacy. Sure, but in India-Pakistan relations, they (UAE and KSA, not Qatar) are increasingly the only mediators with whom both parties can negotiate offramps. Large pole countries don't have the same heft they may have had 15-20 years ago, and even the Russian-Ukraine War has shown that power differentials are not that significant between major powers and regional powers, and why multilateralism is critical (and a major reason I dislike Trump - I primarily only agree with his tariff policy, nothing else).
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > in India-Pakistan relations, they (UAE and KSA, not Qatar) are increasingly the only mediators with whom both parties can negotiate offramps Only the most minor ones. Anything significant requires an outside security guarantar. > Large pole countries don't have the same heft they may have had 15-20 years ago, and even the Russian-Ukraine War has shown that power differentials are not that significant between major powers and regional powers Russia was trying to replicate America's offensive successes in Afghanistan and Iraq. (What Devereaux calls the modern system [1].) Moscow couldn't even achieve air superiority. (America got supremacy in hours.) Russia's invasion of Ukraine showed that Russia isn't operating a modern, combined-arms military. Great powers have always overestimated their power. That doesn't mean it's not there at all. [1] https://acoup.blog/2020/03/20/collections-why-dont-we-use-chemical-weapons-anymore/ https://acoup.blog/2020/03/20/collections-why-dont-we-use-ch...
- saagarjha 2y ago
  I mean, it wouldn't be the first time. Although I'm not sure one can say the prior coups were orchestrated by a foreign power.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

Nobody is threatening to topple Islamabad. UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes. The relevant players are in Beijing and Washington. > India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace.

alephnerd 2y ago
> UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes 2019 is a good example of UAE using it's heft [0][1]. In a couple years we'll probably see leaks in Bloomberg or AJ about KSA doing something similar rn. > India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace. Both have worked on reconciliation immediately before some incident arises that causes talks to collapse. For example, the last couple months before this incident happened [2], in 2021 thanks to the UAE [1][3] before Bajwa-IK-Munir's tussle, 2017-18 before Balakot according to Cathy Scott-Clark and Adrian Levy [4], and 2016 before the Pathankot Attack [5]. In most cases, both attempts are made at negotiating normalization, but some faction attempts to undermine it. And there were multiple other examples before the Modi admin, at least 2-3 other attempts in the MMS-Musharraf admin and 1 attempt in the Vajpayee-Sharif admin, but they were all undermined by some faction in the Pak Armed forces. I'd recommend reading "The Spy Chronicles" by AS Dulat (former head of India's intel agency) and Asad Durrani (former head of Pakistan's intel agency) where they decided to leak a number of these incidents. The book ended up causing a major political scandal in both India and Pakistan. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-28/india-and-pakistan-the-uae-is-seeking-a-new-role-as-peacemaker https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-28/india-... [1] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-plan https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-... [2] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2460279/fm-says-govt-to-seriously-consider-reviving-trade-with-india https://tribune.com.pk/story/2460279/fm-says-govt-to-serious... [3] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/secret-india-pakistan-peace-roadmap-brokered-by-top-uae-royals https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/secret-in... [4] - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14799855.2019.1665516 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14799855.2019.16... [5] - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35240272 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35240272
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > 2019 is a good example of UAE using it's heft This is not projecting power, it's the UAE (and Qatar) playing their aspirational roles as the new Davos/Switzerland for diplomacy. Pakistan is definitely more anti-peace than India. But while Islamabad undermines peace, New Delhi is mostly uninterested in it.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    > Pakistan is definitely more anti-peace than India. But while Islamabad undermines peace, New Delhi is mostly uninterested in it. That's a framing I agree with. > This is not projecting power, it's the UAE (and Qatar) playing their aspirational roles as the new Davos/Switzerland for diplomacy. Sure, but in India-Pakistan relations, they (UAE and KSA, not Qatar) are increasingly the only mediators with whom both parties can negotiate offramps. Large pole countries don't have the same heft they may have had 15-20 years ago, and even the Russian-Ukraine War has shown that power differentials are not that significant between major powers and regional powers, and why multilateralism is critical (and a major reason I dislike Trump - I primarily only agree with his tariff policy, nothing else).
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > in India-Pakistan relations, they (UAE and KSA, not Qatar) are increasingly the only mediators with whom both parties can negotiate offramps Only the most minor ones. Anything significant requires an outside security guarantar. > Large pole countries don't have the same heft they may have had 15-20 years ago, and even the Russian-Ukraine War has shown that power differentials are not that significant between major powers and regional powers Russia was trying to replicate America's offensive successes in Afghanistan and Iraq. (What Devereaux calls the modern system [1].) Moscow couldn't even achieve air superiority. (America got supremacy in hours.) Russia's invasion of Ukraine showed that Russia isn't operating a modern, combined-arms military. Great powers have always overestimated their power. That doesn't mean it's not there at all. [1] https://acoup.blog/2020/03/20/collections-why-dont-we-use-chemical-weapons-anymore/ https://acoup.blog/2020/03/20/collections-why-dont-we-use-ch...
saagarjha 2y ago
I mean, it wouldn't be the first time. Although I'm not sure one can say the prior coups were orchestrated by a foreign power.