2 ms·

Pretty much. It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a s

Pretty much. It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict. And partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict Yup. But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace. > partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict Zero chance. The problem is China.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  > Zero chance. The problem is China As I mentioned previously, the China factor is significant but overstated. And I'm fairly hawkish about China. UAE and KSA have equally as much if not more leverage on Pakistani elite than China. Majority of Pakistan's trade is devoted to the UAE and KSA, and most leadership (military, political, and business) has family and financial relations in both countries. In addition, the UAE and KSA's sovereign wealth funds own the bulk of Pakistan's core assets like K-Power, PIA, Karachi Port, etc. Furthermore, the classic Pakistani Army retirement strategy is to become a mid-level officer in the Saudi Land Forces, due to past recruitment. And finally, a similar amount of Pakistani weapons systems are NATO adjacent from previous American procurement, so Pakistan has leveraged Turkiye as a hedge against being overly dependent on China. > But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace On the India side the same people who were negotiating normalization with Bajwa remain. The only change has happened in the last couple years is IK was ousted by Bajwa, and then he was ousted by Munir. Munir was DG ISI during Balakot, and immediately demoted to Corps Commander in the direct aftermath of the LeT attack (who like other militant orgs have gotten support from the ISI, but not as much from the Army). It's Munir's clique that appears to be trying to use this to solidify their hold within Pakistan. India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it. Pakistan needs a Musharraf again.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    Nobody is threatening to topple Islamabad. UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes. The relevant players are in Beijing and Washington. > India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      > UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes 2019 is a good example of UAE using it's heft [0][1]. In a couple years we'll probably see leaks in Bloomberg or AJ about KSA doing something similar rn. > India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace. Both have worked on reconciliation immediately before some incident arises that causes talks to collapse. For example, the last couple months before this incident happened [2], in 2021 thanks to the UAE [1][3] before Bajwa-IK-Munir's tussle, 2017-18 before Balakot according to Cathy Scott-Clark and Adrian Levy [4], and 2016 before the Pathankot Attack [5]. In most cases, both attempts are made at negotiating normalization, but some faction attempts to undermine it. And there were multiple other examples before the Modi admin, at least 2-3 other attempts in the MMS-Musharraf admin and 1 attempt in the Vajpayee-Sharif admin, but they were all undermined by some faction in the Pak Armed forces. I'd recommend reading "The Spy Chronicles" by AS Dulat (former head of India's intel agency) and Asad Durrani (former head of Pakistan's intel agency) where they decided to leak a number of these incidents. The book ended up causing a major political scandal in both India and Pakistan. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-28/india-and-pakistan-the-uae-is-seeking-a-new-role-as-peacemaker https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-28/india-... [1] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-plan https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-... [2] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2460279/fm-says-govt-to-seriously-consider-reviving-trade-with-india https://tribune.com.pk/story/2460279/fm-says-govt-to-serious... [3] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/secret-india-pakistan-peace-roadmap-brokered-by-top-uae-royals https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/secret-in... [4] - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14799855.2019.1665516 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14799855.2019.16... [5] - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35240272 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35240272
spaceman_2020 2y ago
The difference this time around is that leadership in both countries is more religiously hardline than the last serious war like situation we had (after Nov 26 2011). Asif Munir is the son of an imam and an avowed Islamist. India’s ruling party is openly pro-Hindu. Modi is also under pressure from the hardline religious wing of his party for the recent focus on caste instead of religion

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> It isn't worth it for either India or Pakistan at the macro level, and intra-elite factionalism would strike well before anyone could commit to a sustained conflict Yup. But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace. > partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict Zero chance. The problem is China.

alephnerd 2y ago
> Zero chance. The problem is China As I mentioned previously, the China factor is significant but overstated. And I'm fairly hawkish about China. UAE and KSA have equally as much if not more leverage on Pakistani elite than China. Majority of Pakistan's trade is devoted to the UAE and KSA, and most leadership (military, political, and business) has family and financial relations in both countries. In addition, the UAE and KSA's sovereign wealth funds own the bulk of Pakistan's core assets like K-Power, PIA, Karachi Port, etc. Furthermore, the classic Pakistani Army retirement strategy is to become a mid-level officer in the Saudi Land Forces, due to past recruitment. And finally, a similar amount of Pakistani weapons systems are NATO adjacent from previous American procurement, so Pakistan has leveraged Turkiye as a hedge against being overly dependent on China. > But those same forces conspire against a sustained peace On the India side the same people who were negotiating normalization with Bajwa remain. The only change has happened in the last couple years is IK was ousted by Bajwa, and then he was ousted by Munir. Munir was DG ISI during Balakot, and immediately demoted to Corps Commander in the direct aftermath of the LeT attack (who like other militant orgs have gotten support from the ISI, but not as much from the Army). It's Munir's clique that appears to be trying to use this to solidify their hold within Pakistan. India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it. Pakistan needs a Musharraf again.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  Nobody is threatening to topple Islamabad. UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes. The relevant players are in Beijing and Washington. > India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    > UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes 2019 is a good example of UAE using it's heft [0][1]. In a couple years we'll probably see leaks in Bloomberg or AJ about KSA doing something similar rn. > India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace. Both have worked on reconciliation immediately before some incident arises that causes talks to collapse. For example, the last couple months before this incident happened [2], in 2021 thanks to the UAE [1][3] before Bajwa-IK-Munir's tussle, 2017-18 before Balakot according to Cathy Scott-Clark and Adrian Levy [4], and 2016 before the Pathankot Attack [5]. In most cases, both attempts are made at negotiating normalization, but some faction attempts to undermine it. And there were multiple other examples before the Modi admin, at least 2-3 other attempts in the MMS-Musharraf admin and 1 attempt in the Vajpayee-Sharif admin, but they were all undermined by some faction in the Pak Armed forces. I'd recommend reading "The Spy Chronicles" by AS Dulat (former head of India's intel agency) and Asad Durrani (former head of Pakistan's intel agency) where they decided to leak a number of these incidents. The book ended up causing a major political scandal in both India and Pakistan. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-28/india-and-pakistan-the-uae-is-seeking-a-new-role-as-peacemaker https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-28/india-... [1] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-plan https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-... [2] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2460279/fm-says-govt-to-seriously-consider-reviving-trade-with-india https://tribune.com.pk/story/2460279/fm-says-govt-to-serious... [3] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/secret-india-pakistan-peace-roadmap-brokered-by-top-uae-royals https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/secret-in... [4] - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14799855.2019.1665516 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14799855.2019.16... [5] - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35240272 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35240272

spaceman_2020 2y ago

The difference this time around is that leadership in both countries is more religiously hardline than the last serious war like situation we had (after Nov 26 2011). Asif Munir is the son of an imam and an avowed Islamist. India’s ruling party is openly pro-Hindu. Modi is also under pressure from the hardline religious wing of his party for the recent focus on caste instead of religion