4 ms·

Funny how you're doing this on a thread about how murder rates are not something to be afraid of. Which one is it? Should we be afraid of Chicago or not?

ceejayoz 1y ago
Several related facts: * The US has a lot more guns than most other developed countries. * The US has a lot more murders than most other developed countries. * Places like Chicago are, statistically, not all that different in this regard from elsewhere in the US. The US has a murder/firearm problem at a population level. The chances of any randomly selected individual being part of it remains fairly low. We simultaneously should be ashamed of our clear violence problem, and recognize that "and then I started blasting" is not a great response to it. Focus on "urban" people in Chicago is a misdirection by folks who'd rather not deal with the national-level concerns. The same people who want you to think Chicago's ~26.9/100k homicide rate is terrifyingly scary want you to think COVID's ~279/100k was not.
- ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
  Your own stats >US: 5.763/100k (of which 3-4/100k are firearms) >Chicago's ~26.9/100k homicide rate So Chicago has a ~5x increase over the national average homicide rate and you're calling guns a "national-level concern". Can you help me understand why I should have gun control in my ~2.6/100k county just because Chicago has 10x that rate?
  - ceejayoz 1y ago
    Sure. Chicago's guns come from outside Chicago; it's surrounded by very permissive jurisdictions. (Trump supporters like to call this sort of issue "open borders".) Your county's seemingly "low" rate is 5x that of China (0.5/100k), 3x that of Germany (0.8/100k), double the city of London (1.4/100k). It's abberantly high still, by international standards.
    - ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
      Why don't you compare the US to Nigeria, Brazil, or Pakistan? Those are more in-line with US population size than Germany, London, or China
      - ceejayoz 1y ago
        > Why don't you compare the US to Nigeria, Brazil, or Pakistan? Because we are in the developed world, and "at least we're better than Pakistan" is probably not the highest of bars we should aspire to as a country? > Those are more in-line with US population size than Germany, London, or China The EU, if you prefer - similar size, population, state+federal(ish) makeup, developed world, mix of wealthy and poorer jurisdictions, etc. - has a 0.86/100k rate.
        ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
        > is probably not the highest of bars we should aspire to Keep going on this. Why is the US inherently better than Pakistan/Nigeria/Brazil?
        ceejayoz 1y ago
        Inherently? Nah. Historically? Colonialism. Currently? Yeah, I'd rather live here in the developed world.
      - hollerith 1y ago
        Because the numbers we are citing here have been divided by population size.
        ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
        It's likely that population size/density can't be abstracted away by normalizing figures since those are actually factors leading to population violence/governance.

ceejayoz 1y ago

Several related facts: * The US has a lot more guns than most other developed countries. * The US has a lot more murders than most other developed countries. * Places like Chicago are, statistically, not all that different in this regard from elsewhere in the US. The US has a murder/firearm problem at a population level. The chances of any randomly selected individual being part of it remains fairly low. We simultaneously should be ashamed of our clear violence problem, and recognize that "and then I started blasting" is not a great response to it. Focus on "urban" people in Chicago is a misdirection by folks who'd rather not deal with the national-level concerns. The same people who want you to think Chicago's ~26.9/100k homicide rate is terrifyingly scary want you to think COVID's ~279/100k was not.

ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
Your own stats >US: 5.763/100k (of which 3-4/100k are firearms) >Chicago's ~26.9/100k homicide rate So Chicago has a ~5x increase over the national average homicide rate and you're calling guns a "national-level concern". Can you help me understand why I should have gun control in my ~2.6/100k county just because Chicago has 10x that rate?
- ceejayoz 1y ago
  Sure. Chicago's guns come from outside Chicago; it's surrounded by very permissive jurisdictions. (Trump supporters like to call this sort of issue "open borders".) Your county's seemingly "low" rate is 5x that of China (0.5/100k), 3x that of Germany (0.8/100k), double the city of London (1.4/100k). It's abberantly high still, by international standards.
  - ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
    Why don't you compare the US to Nigeria, Brazil, or Pakistan? Those are more in-line with US population size than Germany, London, or China
    - ceejayoz 1y ago
      > Why don't you compare the US to Nigeria, Brazil, or Pakistan? Because we are in the developed world, and "at least we're better than Pakistan" is probably not the highest of bars we should aspire to as a country? > Those are more in-line with US population size than Germany, London, or China The EU, if you prefer - similar size, population, state+federal(ish) makeup, developed world, mix of wealthy and poorer jurisdictions, etc. - has a 0.86/100k rate.
      - ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
        > is probably not the highest of bars we should aspire to Keep going on this. Why is the US inherently better than Pakistan/Nigeria/Brazil?
        ceejayoz 1y ago
        Inherently? Nah. Historically? Colonialism. Currently? Yeah, I'd rather live here in the developed world.
    - hollerith 1y ago
      Because the numbers we are citing here have been divided by population size.
      - ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago
        It's likely that population size/density can't be abstracted away by normalizing figures since those are actually factors leading to population violence/governance.