4 ms·
I think a lot of people don't understand statistics, which may make it hard for doctors to choose how to communicate things, even if they do have important know
by 7402 1y ago
I think a lot of people don't understand statistics, which may make it hard for doctors to choose how to communicate things, even if they do have important knowledge that could be helpful.
I once asked a doctor how long a relative might have to stay in intensive care:
A: Oh, I couldn't possibly say.
Q: Do you think he might be home in 3 or 4 days?
A: Oh, no, not that soon.
Q: So it might even be as long at 3 weeks?
A: I highly doubt it would be that long.
Q: So a reasonable estimate might be 1-2 weeks?
A: Oh, I couldn't possibly say.
I started the conversation having no idea whatsoever how long it would be, but I ended up with a good feel for a time estimate along with error bars.
- ninalanyon 1y ago> ended up with a good feel for a time estimate along with error bars. You might have felt that but my impression is that the doctor in question was mostly making up something on the spot. I would guess that the doctor is simply saying that they have never encountered anyone in this situation leaving intensive care within four days and similarly no one who survived needed longer than three weeks. The last answer suggests that they have no actual statistics at all.
- 7402 1y agoWell, they weren't just making things up; there clearly was information that they had, that I wanted, but that they were initially reluctant to give me. At that point ultimate survival did not seem to be the issue, but I had no idea whether the answer to "how long" was going to be hours or months! Even if the statistics they had was something like N=5, that was still (mathematically) infinitely more than the N=0 that I had.