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> There's no working business model for real investigative journalism Shortselling and prediction markets.
by miki123211 1y ago
> There's no working business model for real investigative journalism
Shortselling and prediction markets.
- wizzwizz4 1y agoBut if we treat prediction markets as a source of truth, then those with wealth can spend it to distort the prediction market. Lots of arbitrage opportunity, there: you might even be able to turn a profit! This is the sort of thing that only works if hardly anyone is doing it, and hardly anyone takes it seriously. (It's like most "free market" solutions, in that regard: the conditions for a free market are actually quite hard to obtain, and are almost never stable.)
- genewitch 1y agoI'm hard pressed to not see an undertone of the GameStop saga in your last paragraph.
- miki123211 1y ago> This is the sort of thing that only works if hardly anyone is doing it In fact, it's just the opposite. If "hardly anyone is doing it", you can, in fact, distort a prediction market pretty easily. If you have the money to throw at it, nobody is going to stop you. If absolutely everybody is doing it, though, the situation changes. Somebody whose pockets are just as deep as yours will eventually discover what you're doing. It is in their best interest to trade against you and bring the market to where it should be. This is one of the reasons penny stocks are so much worse than Aapl or SPY. Penny stocks have very low trading volumes and very low interests, so it's pretty easy for a motivated player to distort their price, "pump and dump", or do other shenanigans of the sort. There are so many people trading on aapl that you can be pretty sure the current price represents the market consensus of what aapl is currently worth.
- dagw 1y agoThere's an outfit called Hunterbrook Media that has exactly this as their business model.
- wizzwizz4 1y agoHindenburg Research used to do this, too.