4 ms·
> However, since we have NOT created such a simulation, we are either in the FIRST real existence, OR the last in line of simulations which have not yet created
by dinfinity 1y ago
> However, since we have NOT created such a simulation, we are either in the FIRST real existence, OR the last in line of simulations which have not yet created one. So the chance go down from infinite to 1 that we ARE in one, to 50-50 that we are NOT.
This is like saying that the chance of winning the lottery is 50%: Either you win or you lose. I hope further explanation of why this is incorrect is not necessary.
- harel 1y agoThere are 2 options left - either the first 'real' world, or simulated and the last in a chain of worlds in simulation. That's pretty binary.
- dinfinity 1y agoSteelmanning this, there is one interpretation where the probability would indeed be 0.5, namely that every universe only ever simulates exactly one other universe. This would entail that there is always exactly one simulated universe that does not contain a simulated universe. However, there is no reason why any universe would be limited to simulating one universe, so the interpretation doesn't make sense. The level of branching determines how many 'leaf' universes there are and thus the probability of being in a leaf universe or in the root universe.
- harel 1y agoI was referring to an explanation I heard, in the context of our own existence in this universe, where that explanation, in my opinion covers a 50-50 chance.