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Even with consumer GPUs, the AI stack is completely dependent on ASML, isn't it? Thought experiment: What would happen if the Dutch government decided that AI

Even with consumer GPUs, the AI stack is completely dependent on ASML, isn't it? Thought experiment: What would happen if the Dutch government decided that AI is bad for mankind and shuts down ASML? Would the world be stuck in terms of AI? For how long?

TechDebtDevin 1y ago
ASML publishes most of the research and theres not much stopping people from building their own EUV lithography machines. Its just very very very hard and basically the equivalent of doing magic. China is making incredible progress on this front.
- airstrike 1y ago
  The problem with these things is that there are always trade secrets that aren't published anywhere. So you'd need to actually hire people with specific knowledge to be able to replicate it. The world (and the West specifically) definitely needs to build redundancy ASAP here.
  - TechDebtDevin 1y ago
    The new machines are 2-3 stories tall, require an Airbus to transport, have complexity on par with the worlds largest particle accelerators, if not more complex. Because of this, the supply chains are highly intertwined no one country and can isolate that supply chain. The Dutch can't build it without our contributions, and neither could we without theirs. Lots of moving parts here literally and figuratively.
    - airstrike 1y ago
      That's a separate concern and doesn't change the fact that parts of that supply chain are irreplaceable. The Dutch don't have to willfully sabotage ASML for it to be an issue.
bgnn 1y ago
That's a silly the thought. ASML isn't controlled by the Dutch government. Also, everything in computing is dependent on semiconductors. ASML is just one player. There are tens of thousands companies involved in the industry and some of them are single suppliers of critical materials, machines or software. It's wrong to single out ASML.
- mschuster91 1y ago
  > ASML isn't controlled by the Dutch government. Of course they are. The Dutch government is who ordered ASML to not export their brand new stuff to China.
  - wokkel 1y ago
    Actually it was the usa presuring the Dutch government.
    - hotstickyballs 1y ago
      Distinction without a difference
    - coredog64 1y ago
      ASML licensed technologies from US companies during the development of EUV. That's what gives the US the leverage to do things like block sales to China.
SecretDreams 1y ago
Like all novel things, once you prove it can be done, someone else will do it. If you shut ASML down, some other country that is already working on it will catch up. ASML existing is better because at least the person ahead can keep trying to remain ahead.

TechDebtDevin 1y ago

ASML publishes most of the research and theres not much stopping people from building their own EUV lithography machines. Its just very very very hard and basically the equivalent of doing magic. China is making incredible progress on this front.

airstrike 1y ago
The problem with these things is that there are always trade secrets that aren't published anywhere. So you'd need to actually hire people with specific knowledge to be able to replicate it. The world (and the West specifically) definitely needs to build redundancy ASAP here.
- TechDebtDevin 1y ago
  The new machines are 2-3 stories tall, require an Airbus to transport, have complexity on par with the worlds largest particle accelerators, if not more complex. Because of this, the supply chains are highly intertwined no one country and can isolate that supply chain. The Dutch can't build it without our contributions, and neither could we without theirs. Lots of moving parts here literally and figuratively.
  - airstrike 1y ago
    That's a separate concern and doesn't change the fact that parts of that supply chain are irreplaceable. The Dutch don't have to willfully sabotage ASML for it to be an issue.

bgnn 1y ago

That's a silly the thought. ASML isn't controlled by the Dutch government. Also, everything in computing is dependent on semiconductors. ASML is just one player. There are tens of thousands companies involved in the industry and some of them are single suppliers of critical materials, machines or software. It's wrong to single out ASML.

mschuster91 1y ago
> ASML isn't controlled by the Dutch government. Of course they are. The Dutch government is who ordered ASML to not export their brand new stuff to China.
- wokkel 1y ago
  Actually it was the usa presuring the Dutch government.
  - hotstickyballs 1y ago
    Distinction without a difference
  - coredog64 1y ago
    ASML licensed technologies from US companies during the development of EUV. That's what gives the US the leverage to do things like block sales to China.

SecretDreams 1y ago

Like all novel things, once you prove it can be done, someone else will do it. If you shut ASML down, some other country that is already working on it will catch up. ASML existing is better because at least the person ahead can keep trying to remain ahead.