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We have very detailed continental weather readings for over a century and can build very good statistical models. So you just ask a supercomputer to find the
by bryanlarsen 2y ago
We have very detailed continental weather readings for over a century and can build very good statistical models. So you just ask a supercomputer to find the lowest cost solution for 99.99% electrical coverage without using any carbon sources.
It's quite possible -- over the previous 30 years we've never had an hour where there was no wind & sun anywhere in Europe. So we could theoretically solve it without storage, but that would require an insane amount of overbuild and interconnect. Imagine supplying all of Europe's electricity needs with just wind power from the south shore of Ireland.
Adding a few days worth of storage reduces the interconnect & overbuild needs dramatically, putting 99.99% carbon free within the realm of the possible.
- timmg 2y ago> So you just ask a supercomputer to find the lowest cost solution for 99.99% electrical coverage without using any carbon sources. Sure... but my expectation is that that 90% solution would include an unreasonable amount of storage (assuming you want most/all renewables). I guess was my point. > It's quite possible -- over the previous 30 years we've never had an hour where there was no wind & sun anywhere in Europe. But "some" wind or sun is not enough to support the whole grid.
- bryanlarsen 2y agoI wouldn't assume all or even most renewables. I would assume you'd continue to use existing hydro and nuclear. The nuclear would help a little, but the hydro helps a lot. It's capacity can be saved for times when wind and solar are low. In that scenario 90% is very easy to hit. A couple of hours worth of storage, maybe. > But "some" wind or sun is not enough to support the whole grid. The less there is, the more you have to over build to compensate. Doesn't make it impossible.