5 ms·

An interesting calculation, but why do you assume all the battery storage would have to come from tesla? I'm looking at whole-house battery backup for a little

by johnea 1y ago

An interesting calculation, but why do you assume all the battery storage would have to come from tesla? I'm looking at whole-house battery backup for a little construction projct underway here. This is a boom market at the moment, and there are many other manufacturers in production. I can only assume this is also the case for industrial scale storage...

VagabundoP 1y ago
Exactly finding other non-lithium battery tech to use for these just makes sense: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_redox_flow_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_redox_flow_battery
- briandw 1y ago
  Sounds great, but when will that be commercially available at scale? I didn't find any installations in a quick search.
  - VagabundoP 1y ago
    https://voltstorage.com/en/solutions/the-voltstorage-iron-salt-battery https://voltstorage.com/en/solutions/the-voltstorage-iron-sa... These have commercial products already I believe. I'm not sure if they have any installed yet. They have moved from vanadium batteries.
    - briandw 1y ago
      Thanks for the link. Looks promising however it's years away from solving the problems that we have right now. The point I was trying to make above is that even proven solutions with an installed manufacturing base require years of lead-time. Renewable energy projects that don't include battery stabilization are reckless.
briandw 1y ago
Here's the estimate for the lead times for the top grid suppliers. Tesla is the largest and fastest. So no need for Tesla, but they'd be the first according to this AI researched summary. Tesla: 12–18 months (fastest). Tesla’s 40 GWh Megafactory, vertical integration, and proven deployment speed (e.g., Hornsdale in 100 days) make it the leader. A 4 GWh order could be split across multiple sites, leveraging prefabricated Megapacks and software to streamline commissioning. CATL: 18–24 months (close second, if partnered). CATL’s 300 GWh cell capacity could produce 4 GWh in weeks, but integration by partners like Fluence or Sungrow adds time. Direct TENER deployment could approach Tesla’s speed if CATL scales system assembly. BYD: 18–24 months. BYD’s 100 GWh capacity and LFP expertise are strong, but slower project execution and less software focus trail Tesla. Fluence and Sungrow: 24–36 months. Both lack proprietary manufacturing and rely on external cells, extending lead times.

by johnea 1y ago

VagabundoP 1y ago

Exactly finding other non-lithium battery tech to use for these just makes sense: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_redox_flow_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_redox_flow_battery

briandw 1y ago
Sounds great, but when will that be commercially available at scale? I didn't find any installations in a quick search.
- VagabundoP 1y ago
  https://voltstorage.com/en/solutions/the-voltstorage-iron-salt-battery https://voltstorage.com/en/solutions/the-voltstorage-iron-sa... These have commercial products already I believe. I'm not sure if they have any installed yet. They have moved from vanadium batteries.
  - briandw 1y ago
    Thanks for the link. Looks promising however it's years away from solving the problems that we have right now. The point I was trying to make above is that even proven solutions with an installed manufacturing base require years of lead-time. Renewable energy projects that don't include battery stabilization are reckless.

briandw 1y ago

Here's the estimate for the lead times for the top grid suppliers. Tesla is the largest and fastest. So no need for Tesla, but they'd be the first according to this AI researched summary. Tesla: 12–18 months (fastest). Tesla’s 40 GWh Megafactory, vertical integration, and proven deployment speed (e.g., Hornsdale in 100 days) make it the leader. A 4 GWh order could be split across multiple sites, leveraging prefabricated Megapacks and software to streamline commissioning. CATL: 18–24 months (close second, if partnered). CATL’s 300 GWh cell capacity could produce 4 GWh in weeks, but integration by partners like Fluence or Sungrow adds time. Direct TENER deployment could approach Tesla’s speed if CATL scales system assembly. BYD: 18–24 months. BYD’s 100 GWh capacity and LFP expertise are strong, but slower project execution and less software focus trail Tesla. Fluence and Sungrow: 24–36 months. Both lack proprietary manufacturing and rely on external cells, extending lead times.