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I asked O3 for an analysis on how much battery power would have been needed to prevent this from happening again. The TLDR is: 1. The grid went dark because 15
by briandw 1y ago
I asked O3 for an analysis on how much battery power would have been needed to prevent this from happening again. The TLDR is:
1. The grid went dark because 15 GW of generation vanished in five seconds.
2. Need to bridge for 10mins -> 2.5GWh needed, with margin 3-4GWh
3. Need a 6C system, 15 GW / 3 GWh
4. Cost ≈€3 B all‑in, or €55 per Iberian resident
However the lead time is going to be an issue:
Need 7500 Tesla Megapacks and thats 4‑5 months of combined annual capacity for Tesla.
Currently there is a 18 to 24 month backlog.
Then there is 6-9 month installation time.
So 3 years to fix this, min.
It's a shame that these renewable energy transitions are managed so poorly. This was a predictable outcome and it's negligence that they went ahead with switching so much of the grid to renewable without accounting for the needed for stability. It hurts the mission of switching to renewable energy.
- johnea 1y agoAn interesting calculation, but why do you assume all the battery storage would have to come from tesla? I'm looking at whole-house battery backup for a little construction projct underway here. This is a boom market at the moment, and there are many other manufacturers in production. I can only assume this is also the case for industrial scale storage...
- VagabundoP 1y agoExactly finding other non-lithium battery tech to use for these just makes sense: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_redox_flow_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_redox_flow_battery
- briandw 1y agoSounds great, but when will that be commercially available at scale? I didn't find any installations in a quick search.
- VagabundoP 1y agohttps://voltstorage.com/en/solutions/the-voltstorage-iron-salt-battery https://voltstorage.com/en/solutions/the-voltstorage-iron-sa... These have commercial products already I believe. I'm not sure if they have any installed yet. They have moved from vanadium batteries.
- briandw 1y agoThanks for the link. Looks promising however it's years away from solving the problems that we have right now. The point I was trying to make above is that even proven solutions with an installed manufacturing base require years of lead-time. Renewable energy projects that don't include battery stabilization are reckless.
- briandw 1y agoHere's the estimate for the lead times for the top grid suppliers. Tesla is the largest and fastest. So no need for Tesla, but they'd be the first according to this AI researched summary. Tesla: 12–18 months (fastest). Tesla’s 40 GWh Megafactory, vertical integration, and proven deployment speed (e.g., Hornsdale in 100 days) make it the leader. A 4 GWh order could be split across multiple sites, leveraging prefabricated Megapacks and software to streamline commissioning. CATL: 18–24 months (close second, if partnered). CATL’s 300 GWh cell capacity could produce 4 GWh in weeks, but integration by partners like Fluence or Sungrow adds time. Direct TENER deployment could approach Tesla’s speed if CATL scales system assembly. BYD: 18–24 months. BYD’s 100 GWh capacity and LFP expertise are strong, but slower project execution and less software focus trail Tesla. Fluence and Sungrow: 24–36 months. Both lack proprietary manufacturing and rely on external cells, extending lead times.
- asdefghyk 1y agoabout the battery capacity needed. It needs to be fully CHARGED too - in reserve ALL the time
- briandw 1y agoWhy the down votes? Blackouts are not going to help the world switch to renewable energy. Battery backup can fix the problem but only if the people pushing for renewables have realistic expectations and plan accordingly. This is a failure and didn't need to happen.