5 ms·

Hmmmmm. So we're going to have a lot of people potentially unemployed because of this...

Analemma_ 2y ago
Doubtful. The trucking industry has been screaming for years that they can’t find enough people, almost every 18-wheeler I see on the highway has a “we’re hiring” ad on it, and so on. This is automation coming in to replace humans who are willfully exiting.
- RankingMember 2y ago
  They are hiring, but the reason they can't find people isn't because there aren't people out there willing to do the job if it's fairly compensated. The problem is that trucking has lost a ton of upside over the last few decades, particularly after the Motor Carrier Act of 1980. Drivers are often paid per mile instead of per hour, which means long unpaid periods waiting for loads or stuck in traffic.
  - imglorp 2y ago
    So as usual, "we can't find people" is code for "we tried to exploit the workers until they bled and for some reason we can't figure out, they went elsewhere."
    - RankingMember 2y ago
      Bingo. "No one wants to work [for a wage they can't live off of with pitiful benefits] anymore!"
    - hbsbsbsndk 2y ago
      It's an incredibly dangerous job, both in terms of chronic health and acute risk.
    - 9rx 2y ago
      Since COVID happened until this year I would have told you "we can't find people" too, but this year the applications have flooded in. So at least they'll come crawling back eventually.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
    You're citing a 45 year old law as the reason why, say 35 years in the future, it leads to notable shortages of people who want to be truck drivers? Doesn't hold water for me. Do you have some specific idea about how this law only had this effect decades after it passed?
    - bryanlarsen 2y ago
      I've been hearing about the truck driver shortage for > 30 years. Back then it may have been more local, though. Places like North Dakota have been short of drivers for at least 30 years.
    - RankingMember 2y ago
      The Motor Carrier Act of 1980 deregulated the industry, which led to a sharp increase in competition among carriers. Over time, this pushed down freight rates and put pressure on companies to cut costs at the expense of drivers. Many drivers are now classified as independent contractors rather than employees, meaning no benefits or wage protections. Obviously this also happened against the background of a broader trend towards deregulation that proceeded under Reagan, so it's not just that act.
  - lewdev 2y ago
    Regardless of the pay, I just can't imagine people really being excited to drive all day alone. I hate driving and I do it as little as possible. People like to be around other people when they work too.
    - bobthepanda 2y ago
      To each their own. I’m not a driver either but I could see how trucker life harkens back to the American mythos of the solitary pioneer calling their own shots and working hard as they see fit. Modern trucking is nothing like that, and often they are independent contractors in name only, driving someone else’s truck and being evaluated against strict performance criteria.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  Walmart and similar employers have no trouble finding drivers. Decent pay, benefits and schedules makes it easy.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
    Walmart is still hiring drivers, though.
    - bryanlarsen 2y ago
      With 14,000 drivers there's going to be continuous turnover. Edit: Also, Wal-mart's standards are incredibly high -- several years of clean driving experience. Most commercial truck drivers do not meet those standards. Despite the high standards, they still readily fill their positions. If they were having troubles, they'd lower their standards.
      - tcmart14 2y ago
        There is also just turn over, from my understanding from a former co-worker who had a kid go into truck driving, that truck drivers very rarely stay at the same company long term. New drivers get their training paid for and have an obligation to fill (ex walmart pays for training and pays you while you do it, but you have a 2-3 year obligation to them). Once they do that, they move on to another company. I am assuming for better pay and benefits. And even then, swapping companies is pretty common. Then also a good number stack enough money to buy their own truck and contract. I had a neighbor growing up who owned his own semi and worked on contract.
        bryanlarsen 2y ago
        That's the rule, but AFAICT Wal-Mart is the exception to the rule. They don't train anybody without years of loyalty to the company, I don't think they have obligations. It's the dream job for most truckers from what I hear, and once you get in you don't leave. Wal-Mart pays a solid 6 figures with great home time. You can make more than that with your own truck, but it's hard. I'm sure it's like any job -- everything else can be great, but if you get stuck with a bad boss it can make you absolutely miserable and drive you out.
allears 2y ago
At the same time that tariffs slow down the entire trucking industry -- truckers are gonna definitely be hurting
- readthenotes1 2y ago
  Not to mention the drive to remove the 10s of thousands of truck drivers that recently immigrated... E.g., https://nypost.com/2025/04/29/us-news/trump-signs-order-requiring-truck-drivers-to-speak-english-pass-literacy-tests/ https://nypost.com/2025/04/29/us-news/trump-signs-order-requ... https://truckdrivernews.com/new-arkansas-bill-could-make-non-us-citizen-truckers-illegal/ https://truckdrivernews.com/new-arkansas-bill-could-make-non...
  - creato 2y ago
    "Not to mention" doesn't make sense here. Everything else in this thread is talking about reducing the demand for trucking labor. Your post is talking about reducing the supply.
    - readthenotes1 2y ago
      "truckers are definitely going to be hurting" Far fewer of them will be truckers
porphyra 2y ago
There's a national truck driver shortage, with a particular lack of young drivers [1]. Perhaps automation technology will become widespread just in time for the current generation of drivers to retire. [1] https://www.iru.org/news-resources/newsroom/worse-you-thought-truck-driver-shortages-and-demographics https://www.iru.org/news-resources/newsroom/worse-you-though...
- smallmancontrov 2y ago
  Not one mention of pay? Really? In other news, there is a terrible shortage of Lamborghinis at the $30k price point. When will the horror end?
  - tcmart14 2y ago
    No mention of pay. Also not mention that for about the past 10-15 years, we've also been telling young people AI was going to make truck driving a job of that past also. I remember in 2014 (we are all getting old, that was more than 10 years ago), hearing about comments Elon made that truck drivers were gonna be a thing of the past any day now. Granted, that didn't end up happening, or at least not as quickly. But the fact is, when kids hear a good chunk of their life that a job is gonna be antiquated, we can't be surprised when kids grow up not wanting to be the people to fill those jobs.
- bluecheese452 2y ago
  Survey of trucking company finds shortage of workers. Well I for one am shocked!
- lenerdenator 2y ago
  "Why is this the case? Why are there so few women and young truck drivers? How can we get more of them behind the wheel?" Well, it's like literally everything else. Pay more.
  - mike_d 2y ago
    No the solution isn't to pay more. We shouldn't be trying to figure out ways to get more people into shitty hazardous jobs. You don't "pay more" to get more young people and women to apply to moving spent nuclear fuel, you give the job to the robots.
RankingMember 2y ago
UBI is inevitable imo; we're going to continue to see machines replace humans in roles like this.
- lenerdenator 2y ago
  The guys with all of the money don't like paying people now when people actually deliver value with their labor. No way they do it once they can just have machines work for them. Well, not with being asked politely, at least.
  - RankingMember 2y ago
    > Well, not with being asked politely, at least. yep, it definitely won't happen politely
    - vkou 2y ago
      Of all the countries in the world, it definitely won't happen in the United States.
  - bayarearefugee 2y ago
    true, but on the other hand when things get bad enough the guillotine plans will probably be open sourced and freely shared.
- smallmancontrov 2y ago
  Swarms of murderbots are cheaper than UBI. This is going to get ugly.
  - isx726552 2y ago
    I don’t know why you’re being downvoted. It is absolutely in the cards for the ownership class to send out swarms of drones to kill us all. The best we can hope for is to all end up in permanent slums picking through garbage to survive. One peep of protest a little too loud and suddenly we’ll all be living the same scenario that’s visible all over the “combat footage” portions of the web: you are walking along outdoors, you hear a buzz, and then suddenly you look up to realize there’s a drone coming at you. You panic and try to run but by the time you hear it, it’s too late. It catches up to you easily and drops a bomb on you. Or maybe it’s a smaller more targeted (and disposable) one that zips straight at your forehead and explodes on contact, destroying your brain. People may say I’m a doomsayer but just look back at the history of labor in the US. They sent out privatized security to shoot anyone who didn’t cooperate. And that was when they still needed the workers! Just imagine what they’ll do when they no longer need anyone!
dyauspitr 2y ago
It’s not as lucrative anymore because the trucks are effectively speed limited, location constantly tracked and hours micromanaged. Some setups even have a front facing and in cabin driver facing camera recording at all times. Also, they are paid per mile so the many hours they spend at the loading and unloading stations are effectively unpaid. It’s not as lucrative to the folks that enjoyed pretty much total freedom outside of the start and end points.
meta_ai_x 2y ago
That's not how any of this works. Automation like FSD will lead to cheaper shipping costs via trucks leading to more Trucks on the road and more needing to load/unload and manage last mile logistics and driving routes that can't be automated resulting in ... more trucking jobs, more loading/unloading jobs, more FSD operations jobs, more truck repair jobs, more software engineering jobs
- lewdev 2y ago
  This reminds me of how ATMs created more banking jobs because people started to use the bank more along with ATMs. ATMs handled the simple transactions and tellers dealt with the more complex tasks. We'll see. There will be a loss of little industries that depended on truckers though, like truck stops and inns. I also hope that this results in more jobs that are fulfilling.
  - hbsbsbsndk 2y ago
    Have you been to a bank branch recently? There is almost no staff, and to get help you have to call an offshored call center.
    - cenamus 2y ago
      And there's like hardly any branches anymore, used to be one in every major village/small town per bank, now there's double the people and a third the banks
    - maxerickson 2y ago
      My little credit union usually has 3-4 tellers and some additional staff that handle more complicated stuff.
      - lenerdenator 2y ago
        Your little credit union lacks the capital to have automated systems handle more complicated stuff... for now. Used to work at a bank that had a few local branches as a teller when I was a senior in HS. Had old, antiquated technology but had a "person on the phone whenever you needed help". I'm going to guess that the bank that bought them out was quite a bit more advanced, and the banks that do the same will be buying out the less advanced ones.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
“We study teamsters at the dawn of the motor truck, current occupations threatened by computerization, and truckers dreading robotic trucks. As predicted, wages in threatened occupations rise, employment falls, and the occupations become ‘grayer’. Older workers become more likely to enter and less likely to exit the occupation than young ones and sometimes even increase in number.” https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2025/program/paper/eT2Ar7Te https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2025/program/paper/eT2Ar7T...

Doubtful. The trucking industry has been screaming for years that they can’t find enough people, almost every 18-wheeler I see on the highway has a “we’re hiring” ad on it, and so on. This is automation coming in to replace humans who are willfully exiting.

RankingMember 2y ago
They are hiring, but the reason they can't find people isn't because there aren't people out there willing to do the job if it's fairly compensated. The problem is that trucking has lost a ton of upside over the last few decades, particularly after the Motor Carrier Act of 1980. Drivers are often paid per mile instead of per hour, which means long unpaid periods waiting for loads or stuck in traffic.
- imglorp 2y ago
  So as usual, "we can't find people" is code for "we tried to exploit the workers until they bled and for some reason we can't figure out, they went elsewhere."
  - RankingMember 2y ago
    Bingo. "No one wants to work [for a wage they can't live off of with pitiful benefits] anymore!"
  - hbsbsbsndk 2y ago
    It's an incredibly dangerous job, both in terms of chronic health and acute risk.
  - 9rx 2y ago
    Since COVID happened until this year I would have told you "we can't find people" too, but this year the applications have flooded in. So at least they'll come crawling back eventually.
- PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
  You're citing a 45 year old law as the reason why, say 35 years in the future, it leads to notable shortages of people who want to be truck drivers? Doesn't hold water for me. Do you have some specific idea about how this law only had this effect decades after it passed?
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    I've been hearing about the truck driver shortage for > 30 years. Back then it may have been more local, though. Places like North Dakota have been short of drivers for at least 30 years.
  - RankingMember 2y ago
    The Motor Carrier Act of 1980 deregulated the industry, which led to a sharp increase in competition among carriers. Over time, this pushed down freight rates and put pressure on companies to cut costs at the expense of drivers. Many drivers are now classified as independent contractors rather than employees, meaning no benefits or wage protections. Obviously this also happened against the background of a broader trend towards deregulation that proceeded under Reagan, so it's not just that act.
- lewdev 2y ago
  Regardless of the pay, I just can't imagine people really being excited to drive all day alone. I hate driving and I do it as little as possible. People like to be around other people when they work too.
  - bobthepanda 2y ago
    To each their own. I’m not a driver either but I could see how trucker life harkens back to the American mythos of the solitary pioneer calling their own shots and working hard as they see fit. Modern trucking is nothing like that, and often they are independent contractors in name only, driving someone else’s truck and being evaluated against strict performance criteria.
bryanlarsen 2y ago
Walmart and similar employers have no trouble finding drivers. Decent pay, benefits and schedules makes it easy.
- PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
  Walmart is still hiring drivers, though.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    With 14,000 drivers there's going to be continuous turnover. Edit: Also, Wal-mart's standards are incredibly high -- several years of clean driving experience. Most commercial truck drivers do not meet those standards. Despite the high standards, they still readily fill their positions. If they were having troubles, they'd lower their standards.
    - tcmart14 2y ago
      There is also just turn over, from my understanding from a former co-worker who had a kid go into truck driving, that truck drivers very rarely stay at the same company long term. New drivers get their training paid for and have an obligation to fill (ex walmart pays for training and pays you while you do it, but you have a 2-3 year obligation to them). Once they do that, they move on to another company. I am assuming for better pay and benefits. And even then, swapping companies is pretty common. Then also a good number stack enough money to buy their own truck and contract. I had a neighbor growing up who owned his own semi and worked on contract.
      - bryanlarsen 2y ago
        That's the rule, but AFAICT Wal-Mart is the exception to the rule. They don't train anybody without years of loyalty to the company, I don't think they have obligations. It's the dream job for most truckers from what I hear, and once you get in you don't leave. Wal-Mart pays a solid 6 figures with great home time. You can make more than that with your own truck, but it's hard. I'm sure it's like any job -- everything else can be great, but if you get stuck with a bad boss it can make you absolutely miserable and drive you out.

allears 2y ago

At the same time that tariffs slow down the entire trucking industry -- truckers are gonna definitely be hurting

readthenotes1 2y ago
Not to mention the drive to remove the 10s of thousands of truck drivers that recently immigrated... E.g., https://nypost.com/2025/04/29/us-news/trump-signs-order-requiring-truck-drivers-to-speak-english-pass-literacy-tests/ https://nypost.com/2025/04/29/us-news/trump-signs-order-requ... https://truckdrivernews.com/new-arkansas-bill-could-make-non-us-citizen-truckers-illegal/ https://truckdrivernews.com/new-arkansas-bill-could-make-non...
- creato 2y ago
  "Not to mention" doesn't make sense here. Everything else in this thread is talking about reducing the demand for trucking labor. Your post is talking about reducing the supply.
  - readthenotes1 2y ago
    "truckers are definitely going to be hurting" Far fewer of them will be truckers

porphyra 2y ago

There's a national truck driver shortage, with a particular lack of young drivers [1]. Perhaps automation technology will become widespread just in time for the current generation of drivers to retire. [1] https://www.iru.org/news-resources/newsroom/worse-you-thought-truck-driver-shortages-and-demographics https://www.iru.org/news-resources/newsroom/worse-you-though...

smallmancontrov 2y ago
Not one mention of pay? Really? In other news, there is a terrible shortage of Lamborghinis at the $30k price point. When will the horror end?
- tcmart14 2y ago
  No mention of pay. Also not mention that for about the past 10-15 years, we've also been telling young people AI was going to make truck driving a job of that past also. I remember in 2014 (we are all getting old, that was more than 10 years ago), hearing about comments Elon made that truck drivers were gonna be a thing of the past any day now. Granted, that didn't end up happening, or at least not as quickly. But the fact is, when kids hear a good chunk of their life that a job is gonna be antiquated, we can't be surprised when kids grow up not wanting to be the people to fill those jobs.
bluecheese452 2y ago
Survey of trucking company finds shortage of workers. Well I for one am shocked!
lenerdenator 2y ago
"Why is this the case? Why are there so few women and young truck drivers? How can we get more of them behind the wheel?" Well, it's like literally everything else. Pay more.
- mike_d 2y ago
  No the solution isn't to pay more. We shouldn't be trying to figure out ways to get more people into shitty hazardous jobs. You don't "pay more" to get more young people and women to apply to moving spent nuclear fuel, you give the job to the robots.

RankingMember 2y ago

UBI is inevitable imo; we're going to continue to see machines replace humans in roles like this.

lenerdenator 2y ago
The guys with all of the money don't like paying people now when people actually deliver value with their labor. No way they do it once they can just have machines work for them. Well, not with being asked politely, at least.
- RankingMember 2y ago
  > Well, not with being asked politely, at least. yep, it definitely won't happen politely
  - vkou 2y ago
    Of all the countries in the world, it definitely won't happen in the United States.
- bayarearefugee 2y ago
  true, but on the other hand when things get bad enough the guillotine plans will probably be open sourced and freely shared.
smallmancontrov 2y ago
Swarms of murderbots are cheaper than UBI. This is going to get ugly.
- isx726552 2y ago
  I don’t know why you’re being downvoted. It is absolutely in the cards for the ownership class to send out swarms of drones to kill us all. The best we can hope for is to all end up in permanent slums picking through garbage to survive. One peep of protest a little too loud and suddenly we’ll all be living the same scenario that’s visible all over the “combat footage” portions of the web: you are walking along outdoors, you hear a buzz, and then suddenly you look up to realize there’s a drone coming at you. You panic and try to run but by the time you hear it, it’s too late. It catches up to you easily and drops a bomb on you. Or maybe it’s a smaller more targeted (and disposable) one that zips straight at your forehead and explodes on contact, destroying your brain. People may say I’m a doomsayer but just look back at the history of labor in the US. They sent out privatized security to shoot anyone who didn’t cooperate. And that was when they still needed the workers! Just imagine what they’ll do when they no longer need anyone!

dyauspitr 2y ago

It’s not as lucrative anymore because the trucks are effectively speed limited, location constantly tracked and hours micromanaged. Some setups even have a front facing and in cabin driver facing camera recording at all times. Also, they are paid per mile so the many hours they spend at the loading and unloading stations are effectively unpaid. It’s not as lucrative to the folks that enjoyed pretty much total freedom outside of the start and end points.

meta_ai_x 2y ago

That's not how any of this works. Automation like FSD will lead to cheaper shipping costs via trucks leading to more Trucks on the road and more needing to load/unload and manage last mile logistics and driving routes that can't be automated resulting in ... more trucking jobs, more loading/unloading jobs, more FSD operations jobs, more truck repair jobs, more software engineering jobs

lewdev 2y ago
This reminds me of how ATMs created more banking jobs because people started to use the bank more along with ATMs. ATMs handled the simple transactions and tellers dealt with the more complex tasks. We'll see. There will be a loss of little industries that depended on truckers though, like truck stops and inns. I also hope that this results in more jobs that are fulfilling.
- hbsbsbsndk 2y ago
  Have you been to a bank branch recently? There is almost no staff, and to get help you have to call an offshored call center.
  - cenamus 2y ago
    And there's like hardly any branches anymore, used to be one in every major village/small town per bank, now there's double the people and a third the banks
  - maxerickson 2y ago
    My little credit union usually has 3-4 tellers and some additional staff that handle more complicated stuff.
    - lenerdenator 2y ago
      Your little credit union lacks the capital to have automated systems handle more complicated stuff... for now. Used to work at a bank that had a few local branches as a teller when I was a senior in HS. Had old, antiquated technology but had a "person on the phone whenever you needed help". I'm going to guess that the bank that bought them out was quite a bit more advanced, and the banks that do the same will be buying out the less advanced ones.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

“We study teamsters at the dawn of the motor truck, current occupations threatened by computerization, and truckers dreading robotic trucks. As predicted, wages in threatened occupations rise, employment falls, and the occupations become ‘grayer’. Older workers become more likely to enter and less likely to exit the occupation than young ones and sometimes even increase in number.” https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2025/program/paper/eT2Ar7Te https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2025/program/paper/eT2Ar7T...