16 ms·

The sad thing is, investment into new manufacturing was actually up -- WAY up -- under Biden, as you can see in this chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/P

The sad thing is, investment into new manufacturing was actually up -- WAY up -- under Biden, as you can see in this chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRMFGCON https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRMFGCON Now that Trump is president, looks like it's starting to decline again.

mjevans 1y ago
Manufacturing lead times are huge. E.G. Offhand CPUs take something like 5-7 years from initial plans to final tapeouts / production. That's not even considering the issues of planning, permits, installing machines, training workers, etc, in a more down to earth facility like a generic food plant, or heck forbid something seriously regulated (I hope) like making prescription drugs.
- parineum 1y ago
  That's a larger reason for offshoring than wages. Your billion dollar factory can start returning the investment years earlier when you manufacture elsewhere.
  - mjevans 1y ago
    Less red tape, easier to manage 'processes', fewer environmental / labor relations... It's those last two, impact on the commons and unfair worker treatment, that are examples of where I _would_ support reasonable tariffs. Particularly if funds from those tariffs went to remediating the impact and were agreed to (also observed) by a majority of other leading countries / economic blocks.
- TulliusCicero 1y ago
  And...what exactly does this have to do with my comment, which was about how much money was being invested into manufacturing construction?
  - mjevans 1y ago
    You'd mentioned a _timeline_ of manufacturing. I'm pointing out that usually investment has a lag time and giving some examples of lag times I've seen mentioned in publications before to parallel my supposition... That real impact from investment may be 5-10+ years from the initial funding allocation.
    - TulliusCicero 1y ago
      But I wasn't talking about results, I just pointed out that investment was way up? There's no time lag there, it's just...how much money is going in.
watwut 1y ago
It is not about manufacturing as in creating things. If it was, they would like Biden policies and continued them. Real manufacturing today is heavily automatized - you can create a lot of things with a few jobs. It is about manufacturing jobs as identity and social status. Biden would create manufacturing as a "modern factories that create things". These do not employ all that many people and wont revert the world back to idealized past.
- mjevans 1y ago
  Yes, those jobs are never returning. Manufacturing will increasingly be automated, or the world will crash in some highly unfortunate way that we'd all be (un?)lucky to survive. Production of critical parts within allied or the same nation is a reasonable goal. It's probably also more energy efficient to manufacture things closer and ship less.

mjevans 1y ago

Manufacturing lead times are huge. E.G. Offhand CPUs take something like 5-7 years from initial plans to final tapeouts / production. That's not even considering the issues of planning, permits, installing machines, training workers, etc, in a more down to earth facility like a generic food plant, or heck forbid something seriously regulated (I hope) like making prescription drugs.

parineum 1y ago
That's a larger reason for offshoring than wages. Your billion dollar factory can start returning the investment years earlier when you manufacture elsewhere.
- mjevans 1y ago
  Less red tape, easier to manage 'processes', fewer environmental / labor relations... It's those last two, impact on the commons and unfair worker treatment, that are examples of where I _would_ support reasonable tariffs. Particularly if funds from those tariffs went to remediating the impact and were agreed to (also observed) by a majority of other leading countries / economic blocks.
TulliusCicero 1y ago
And...what exactly does this have to do with my comment, which was about how much money was being invested into manufacturing construction?
- mjevans 1y ago
  You'd mentioned a _timeline_ of manufacturing. I'm pointing out that usually investment has a lag time and giving some examples of lag times I've seen mentioned in publications before to parallel my supposition... That real impact from investment may be 5-10+ years from the initial funding allocation.
  - TulliusCicero 1y ago
    But I wasn't talking about results, I just pointed out that investment was way up? There's no time lag there, it's just...how much money is going in.

watwut 1y ago

It is not about manufacturing as in creating things. If it was, they would like Biden policies and continued them. Real manufacturing today is heavily automatized - you can create a lot of things with a few jobs. It is about manufacturing jobs as identity and social status. Biden would create manufacturing as a "modern factories that create things". These do not employ all that many people and wont revert the world back to idealized past.

mjevans 1y ago
Yes, those jobs are never returning. Manufacturing will increasingly be automated, or the world will crash in some highly unfortunate way that we'd all be (un?)lucky to survive. Production of critical parts within allied or the same nation is a reasonable goal. It's probably also more energy efficient to manufacture things closer and ship less.