4 ms·

Maybe! I struggle to see why you would feel confident in this outcome.

• fnordpiglet 1y ago
  Mostly because everyone has benefited so much from the world order as it exists that no one really wants to lose it other than some fringe wackos. China definitely is a huge winner in the current world construction, Europe as well. The only losers are those that actively fight it - Russia, North Korea, and Iran. I think very few countries really see global domination through conquest as a legitimate goal, and the domination through trade alliances is more enriching, stabilizing, and easier to maintain. China especially I think has little desire beyond Taiwan and the south China seas as trade dominance allows them all the wealth of empire without the administrative headache of managing the internal affairs of conquest states. It’s better to have nations in debt to you than to own their problems.
  • ethbr1 1y ago
    > beyond Taiwan and the south China seas That's a pretty big caveat. To frame the question another way -- which does China want more, an international rules based order or Taiwan and nine dashes of maritime territory?
    • fnordpiglet 1y ago
      I think sadly we are at a damage control point. They probably assume they can have both. They probably can.
  • sanderjd 1y ago
    I feel like relying on this thesis that people won't overthrow the world order because everyone has benefited so much is an odd choice at this particular moment.