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> cutting good and fair deals with the EU Trump administration only succeeded in making the EU see the US as a foreign hostile nation. At this point I think i

> cutting good and fair deals with the EU Trump administration only succeeded in making the EU see the US as a foreign hostile nation. At this point I think it's more likely the EU cut deals with China.

ericmay 2y ago
Nah, the problem is EU will face the same problems the US is facing (they don't want products dumped on their markets at subsidized costs putting their workers out of business), and a lot of the posturing (Canada I think is different) is for the public and because Trump is an asshole but the EU sees the same problem the US does. Nevermind China very overtly aiding Russia in its war in Europe which has the EU not very happy. Guess we forgot about that? The EU is actually quite protectionist, despite public claims to the contrary. Most countries are in various fashion protective of many or certain industries. Trump no doubt damaged ties, and again I think the Biden administration's approach was superior in many ways, but there's a limit to what agreements the EU will make with China. The manufacturing capacity that the Chinese have built isn't sustainable without a substantial increase in Chinese domestic consumption.
- surgical_fire 2y ago
  > Nah, the problem is EU will face the same problems the US is facing The US problems are problems of their own making. EU has only trade rivalries with China, not ideological issues like the US has. Those can be ironed out. And honestly the US administration also has an ideological hatred for Europe, as illustrated by the vice presidents own words. Not really conducive to any sort of deals. As for China dumping cheap things here, as you said, EU is very protectionist (China is as well), and EU consumers have a lot less appetite for consumption than the US. I really think that is less a problem than you believe. > Trump no doubt damaged ties, and again I think the Biden administration's approach was superior in many ways, but there's a limit to what agreements the EU will make with China. I think you really downplay the kind of generational damage the US is doing to the relationship with former allies. > The manufacturing capacity that the Chinese have built isn't sustainable without a substantial increase in Chinese domestic consumption. You forget that China is only in a trade war against the US. The US is in a trade war with everyone else.
  - ericmay 2y ago
    > Those can be ironed out. Depends on the specific trade issue. There's a limit to what can be ironed out, and the large bulk of the problem is that both the EU and China are rather protectionist even compared to the United States and so for either to iron out these trade issues they'll have to both open their markets. So far that hasn't worked out for the United States, even prior to the ideological battles, and I'm not sure I see a path forward for the EU that's significantly different than the status quo. Also China is happily helping Russia fight a war in Europe so I wouldn't be so quick to assume the EU only has a trade issue with China - that's rather naive. > I think you really downplay the kind of generational damage the US is doing to the relationship with former allies. I was just in France for two weeks, nobody I spoke to in my broken French really gives a shit outside of "man that guys sucks right?" The internet isn't day-to-day life. For some reason people think that political grandstanding and harsh rhetoric is only an American phenomenon and that European leaders don't do the same. The issue with Canada I would argue is much more as you are describing, and is rather unfortunate to say the least. > You forget that China is only in a trade war against the US. The US is in a trade war with everyone else. Sure ok - feel free to buy all the Chinese products that are made and shipped to your country from China. Best of luck! Let us know how that turns out for you.
    - surgical_fire 2y ago
      > Also China is happily helping Russia fight a war in Europe The US is also helping Russia in its efforts right now, it's important to underline this. While China is more pragmatically washing their hands and keep trading with Russia, the US actually calls for Ukraine to just capitulate. > I was just in France for two weeks, nobody I spoke to in my broken French really gives a shit outside of "man that guys sucks right?" The internet isn't day-to-day life. For some reason people think that political 1) I don't live in the internet. I barely have any online presence beyond this forum. 2) People are generally polite. I know people from the US, from very liberal to very MAGA. I try to be pleasant to them. And I don't fault them for their government, even the ones that obviously voted for the current president. 3) When I speak about generational damage to relationships, I am talking at the diplomacy level. Building a web of great allies was something that the US could do after the two world wars because the opportunity was there and they seized it. I think it will be very hard, on a diplomatic level, to repair that. This ship has already sailed. > Sure ok - feel free to buy all the Chinese products that are made and shipped to your country from China. Have been for a while. I don't see that as a huge problem. As I said, Europe consumers have a lot less appetite for consumption than the US ones. Partly for cultural reasons, partly because the US had the strength (yes, strength) of commandeering a huge trade deficit that actually benefits immensely its economy. There are some industries that for strategic importance is good to have around, but I would see no benefit in bringing over manufacturing like textiles or cell phone assembly sweatshops. Those can stay in China no problem. Protectionism is good only for what you need protectionism.
- watwut 2y ago
  What "the same problem" EU sees? Because one huge problem EU has is America being literally hostile nation, aligning itself with Russia and capitulating to it. Oh, and threatening annexation of parts of EU. And and hostile tariffs from USA on flimsy excuses.
  - ericmay 2y ago
    I believe we were talking about trade and tariffs, so the same problem that the EU would see in this context is that Chinese manufacturing is generally better and cheaper than what western nations currently do, so the EU will have to maintain current protectionist policies or enact further trade restrictions with China or risk losing jobs to cheaper and better products from China. Germany is going to protect its auto industry, for example.
    - TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
      Europe specialises in high-value manufacturing - aerospace, precision tools and machinery, some pharma. China has been trying to enter those markets, but not with great success. China is much better at components, consumer items, and mid-weight machinery. The EU also sells a lot of food, including staples like pasta, and also niche/prestige branded foods, some with localised brand name protection. (Like balsamic vinegar from Modena.) They're not really competing markets. The auto industry is one of the few sectors with direct competition, and the EU is working on setting minimum prices instead of tariffs.
      - ericmay 2y ago
        Not great success yet. But sure, hopefully the EU and China can work out a great trade deal that works for them since they're not as you say competing markets, and everyone but America wins. That sounds great to me.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]

ericmay 2y ago

Nah, the problem is EU will face the same problems the US is facing (they don't want products dumped on their markets at subsidized costs putting their workers out of business), and a lot of the posturing (Canada I think is different) is for the public and because Trump is an asshole but the EU sees the same problem the US does. Nevermind China very overtly aiding Russia in its war in Europe which has the EU not very happy. Guess we forgot about that? The EU is actually quite protectionist, despite public claims to the contrary. Most countries are in various fashion protective of many or certain industries. Trump no doubt damaged ties, and again I think the Biden administration's approach was superior in many ways, but there's a limit to what agreements the EU will make with China. The manufacturing capacity that the Chinese have built isn't sustainable without a substantial increase in Chinese domestic consumption.

surgical_fire 2y ago
> Nah, the problem is EU will face the same problems the US is facing The US problems are problems of their own making. EU has only trade rivalries with China, not ideological issues like the US has. Those can be ironed out. And honestly the US administration also has an ideological hatred for Europe, as illustrated by the vice presidents own words. Not really conducive to any sort of deals. As for China dumping cheap things here, as you said, EU is very protectionist (China is as well), and EU consumers have a lot less appetite for consumption than the US. I really think that is less a problem than you believe. > Trump no doubt damaged ties, and again I think the Biden administration's approach was superior in many ways, but there's a limit to what agreements the EU will make with China. I think you really downplay the kind of generational damage the US is doing to the relationship with former allies. > The manufacturing capacity that the Chinese have built isn't sustainable without a substantial increase in Chinese domestic consumption. You forget that China is only in a trade war against the US. The US is in a trade war with everyone else.
- ericmay 2y ago
  > Those can be ironed out. Depends on the specific trade issue. There's a limit to what can be ironed out, and the large bulk of the problem is that both the EU and China are rather protectionist even compared to the United States and so for either to iron out these trade issues they'll have to both open their markets. So far that hasn't worked out for the United States, even prior to the ideological battles, and I'm not sure I see a path forward for the EU that's significantly different than the status quo. Also China is happily helping Russia fight a war in Europe so I wouldn't be so quick to assume the EU only has a trade issue with China - that's rather naive. > I think you really downplay the kind of generational damage the US is doing to the relationship with former allies. I was just in France for two weeks, nobody I spoke to in my broken French really gives a shit outside of "man that guys sucks right?" The internet isn't day-to-day life. For some reason people think that political grandstanding and harsh rhetoric is only an American phenomenon and that European leaders don't do the same. The issue with Canada I would argue is much more as you are describing, and is rather unfortunate to say the least. > You forget that China is only in a trade war against the US. The US is in a trade war with everyone else. Sure ok - feel free to buy all the Chinese products that are made and shipped to your country from China. Best of luck! Let us know how that turns out for you.
  - surgical_fire 2y ago
    > Also China is happily helping Russia fight a war in Europe The US is also helping Russia in its efforts right now, it's important to underline this. While China is more pragmatically washing their hands and keep trading with Russia, the US actually calls for Ukraine to just capitulate. > I was just in France for two weeks, nobody I spoke to in my broken French really gives a shit outside of "man that guys sucks right?" The internet isn't day-to-day life. For some reason people think that political 1) I don't live in the internet. I barely have any online presence beyond this forum. 2) People are generally polite. I know people from the US, from very liberal to very MAGA. I try to be pleasant to them. And I don't fault them for their government, even the ones that obviously voted for the current president. 3) When I speak about generational damage to relationships, I am talking at the diplomacy level. Building a web of great allies was something that the US could do after the two world wars because the opportunity was there and they seized it. I think it will be very hard, on a diplomatic level, to repair that. This ship has already sailed. > Sure ok - feel free to buy all the Chinese products that are made and shipped to your country from China. Have been for a while. I don't see that as a huge problem. As I said, Europe consumers have a lot less appetite for consumption than the US ones. Partly for cultural reasons, partly because the US had the strength (yes, strength) of commandeering a huge trade deficit that actually benefits immensely its economy. There are some industries that for strategic importance is good to have around, but I would see no benefit in bringing over manufacturing like textiles or cell phone assembly sweatshops. Those can stay in China no problem. Protectionism is good only for what you need protectionism.
watwut 2y ago
What "the same problem" EU sees? Because one huge problem EU has is America being literally hostile nation, aligning itself with Russia and capitulating to it. Oh, and threatening annexation of parts of EU. And and hostile tariffs from USA on flimsy excuses.
- ericmay 2y ago
  I believe we were talking about trade and tariffs, so the same problem that the EU would see in this context is that Chinese manufacturing is generally better and cheaper than what western nations currently do, so the EU will have to maintain current protectionist policies or enact further trade restrictions with China or risk losing jobs to cheaper and better products from China. Germany is going to protect its auto industry, for example.
  - TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
    Europe specialises in high-value manufacturing - aerospace, precision tools and machinery, some pharma. China has been trying to enter those markets, but not with great success. China is much better at components, consumer items, and mid-weight machinery. The EU also sells a lot of food, including staples like pasta, and also niche/prestige branded foods, some with localised brand name protection. (Like balsamic vinegar from Modena.) They're not really competing markets. The auto industry is one of the few sectors with direct competition, and the EU is working on setting minimum prices instead of tariffs.
    - ericmay 2y ago
      Not great success yet. But sure, hopefully the EU and China can work out a great trade deal that works for them since they're not as you say competing markets, and everyone but America wins. That sounds great to me.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]