> You may have expected this (and if so, I hope you bought some good PUT options), but most economists certainly did not expect this already for the first quart

> You may have expected this (and if so, I hope you bought some good PUT options), but most economists certainly did not expect this already for the first quarter Yes, they did, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 has been negative since, IIRC, mid-February. That in Q1 we were likely in the first quarter of a significant recession that would get worse if some way out of the planned tariff apocalypse wasn't found was a widespread perception.