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Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese com

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get the ripple effect on banks via foreclosures of businesses and mortgages (like sixteen years ago). There are of course quite a few large US businesses being affected directly by this stuff. I imagine that they are not happy with this. And that level of unhappiness will translate into shifts in political donations. Which, I'm sure is something that will get more apparent as next year's mid term elections get closer. That's a stick that can be (and probably already is) wielded that might produce results soonish. At least, I imagine the CEOs of GM, Ford, Boeing, etc. might have a thing or two to say about seeing China disappear as a market where they can do business to sell stuff or to source key components that they require for their own products. China was not being subtle rejecting delivery of a couple of new Boeing planes. And reductions in container traffic from China (which are the life blood of the US economy) are of course a very visible thing. And since container deliveries are critical for supply chains of most manufacturing that actually still happens in the US, that could get ugly really quickly. Worst case all this triggers a recession. Those are rarely predicted accurately until after they've happened. But the signs aren't great and wall street is definitely nervous. A few stocks crashing because investors start panic selling could do the job. We're not there yet, but it got close a few weeks ago.

roughly 2y ago
> There are of course quite a few large US businesses being affected directly by this stuff. I imagine that they are not happy with this. And that level of unhappiness will translate into shifts in political donations. Which, I'm sure is something that will get more apparent as next year's mid term elections get closer. That's a stick that can be (and probably already is) wielded that might produce results soonish. I sincerely hope you’re right, but all initial evidence is the oligarchs kissing the ring, not pulling the strings. Maybe when it becomes obvious that they’re not getting anything for all that abasement they change tacks, but nothing in the Trump era has suggested to me that these folks have the tiger by anything but the tail.
- wing-_-nuts 2y ago
  >all initial evidence is the oligarchs kissing the ring, not pulling the strings. It was comical how quickly amazon back pedaled on showing tariffs transparently in pricing as soon as the whitehouse complained.
  - roughly 2y ago
    One thing that’s been interesting (in a Ralp-Wiggins-esque “I’m in danger!” type way) to watch over the last few years is all the “end of history” types re-learning that Mao was right and that economic might only translates into real power when you use it to buy guns. Europe spent a decade trying to tie Russia into the global economy only to find all that cheap energy meant that when Russia walked into the Ukraine, they were on the wrong side of the ledger to throw their weight around. In the US, our oligarchs didn’t realize how much they were relying on the fact that US government officials believed the same lies about the power of capital that they did, and were caught entirely off guard when Trump walked in, picked up the gun on the table, pointed it at them, and said “I’ll take your wallet, please.” There’s a whole generation of neoliberals learning Littlefinger’s lesson these days: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifaRhL95HUM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifaRhL95HUM - it’s a shame the rest of us are stuck on this ride with them.
    - lenerdenator 2y ago
      To be fair, life's better when you don't have to rely on the guns. If you're willing to work together to make the pie bigger for everyone, peacefully, you get further. Which is why you have to occasionally knock the people willing to exploit the peaceful order, off.
      - lazide 2y ago
        Which takes guns. And back at square 1.
        otterley 2y ago
rotexo 2y ago
> There are of course quite a few large US businesses being affected directly by this stuff. I imagine that they are not happy with this. And that level of unhappiness will translate into shifts in political donations. Which, I'm sure is something that will get more apparent as next year's mid term elections get closer. Maybe. It is possible, though, that we are now in a situation like in the third Nolan Batman movie where Tom hardy puts his hand on the rich guy’s neck and says “do you feel in charge?”
csomar 2y ago
> The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components In a sane world, that's what targeted tariffs are. You don't want to tariffs across the whole board because you might affect exporting manufactures whose prices will go through the roof and might experience disruption. It is kind of what is happening with auto tariffs now that there is a huge blow back but one wonder how many industries out there can't voice their concerns or are not aware of this.
- jgeada 2y ago
  Any assumption that there is targeting or any sort of planning by the chaos goblins we currently have running this administration is long on hope and short on reality.
  - lazide 2y ago
    Well, they’re targeting right at the jugular.
robomartin 2y ago
I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clearly in the horizon for both regions within a decade or two? To be sure, what's going on today should have been done twenty to thirty years ago. Doing this today is far more difficult and painful. I think Kevin O'Leary put it best: What we want a reasonably free markets. It isn't just about tariffs. It's about regulatory lockout, intellectual property and more. For example, India imposes as much as a 110% tariff on US cars and trucks. The list of such actions --which also included non-tariff rules-based restrictions-- is long. From China imposing up to 25% on our cars, autos, chemicals and food to the EU, Canada, Mexico and others following suit. Brazil collected over $800 million in retaliatory tariffs blocking US pharmaceuticals, autos and textiles. In other words, the relationship with hundreds of countries has been very one-sided for a long time. US industry needs to export to thrive, but if countries like Turkey impose 140% tariffs on our autos and trucks, markets are de-facto shut down. How long can any country survive this kind of inequity? So, yeah, this is a rough moment. I hope it is for the best. Everyone benefits from a more open and balanced market. And then, of course, there's one of the elephants in the room: Intellectual property theft. Going back to Kevin O'Learly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKkdor6_rw4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKkdor6_rw4 https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=567065763062114 https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=567065763062114 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGFWWqbDwuw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGFWWqbDwuw https://www.tmz.com/watch/kevin-o-leary-china-tariffs-04-09-2025/ https://www.tmz.com/watch/kevin-o-leary-china-tariffs-04-09-...
- HFguy 2y ago
  I think you do a good job of high-lighting the underlying problem. Which is not being discussed enough. And that the current situation can go on a long time but not forever.
- pbronez 2y ago
  > the elephants in the room: Intellectual property theft. Yup. China has been systematically stealing the IP of anything made in their country since forever. Companies kept falling for it because the potential market looked so big. Now BYD makes cars as good as Tesla and it's all #ShockedPikachuFace
ryandrake 2y ago
> Worst case all this triggers a recession. Recession is probably the best case scenario. If only we get through this with just a recession! The world's economic inter-dependence is one of the things that have kept World War 3 at bay for decades. Nobody's going to start a hot war with their neighbor when they rely on each other through trading. Russia shows what happens when you economically isolate a country with sanctions and force them to rely on themselves economically: It reduces one of the downsides of warfighting. Do we really want an isolated, independent and self-sufficient China?
- immibis 2y ago
  So what you're saying is, there still won't be a world war, but everyone else might go to war with the US.
  - corimaith 2y ago
    A world war for the right to sell goods to USA? That sounds like straight up imperialism.
    - immibis 2y ago
      No, just for its natural resources, land for settlements and its people as slaves.
- Teever 2y ago
  That isn't the lesson from Russia invading Ukraine. The lesson from Russia invading Ukraine is that the presence of authoritarians anywhere is a threat to democracies everywhere. The kind of people who crush freedom aren't content to just do so within their own borders and will eventually do so to others around them. As such it should be the priority of all democracies to extinguish authoritarians whenever possible.
  - nemothekid 2y ago
    This is circular reasoning. You are pretty much saying democracies should be aggressors first. If you swap `authoritarian` and `democracy` in your statement, it will also ring true. However, the parent poster paints a different picture. If people in Moscow were economically threatened by reduced trade caused by an invasion, the elite appetite for such a move would be reduced.
kolanos 2y ago
> At least, I imagine the CEOs of GM, Ford, Boeing, etc. might have a thing or two to say about seeing China disappear as a market where they can do business to sell stuff.... They largely weren't doing this anyway due to Chinese economic policy. For example: > Ford's market share in China has declined significantly.In 2024, Ford's market share was 1.6%, down from a peak of 4.7% in 2015. Over the past three years, Ford's average market share in China has been a modest 1.8%.
- MaxPock 2y ago
  GM used to sell more cars in China than in the US .Same with VW , Mercedes and BMW
  - kolanos 2y ago
    While this is true, this changed around 2009. What happened? The Chinese government started heavily subsidizing domestic automakers [0]while continuing the joint venture requirements for foreign automakers, which started in 1979 [1]. These joint venture requirements have been a source of significant intellectual property theft [2]. All foreign automakers operating in China, not just U.S. ones, have either faced bankruptcy or a significant downturn in market share in China over the past 15 years. [0]: https://www.carscoops.com/2024/07/china-gives-its-automakers-grants-sales-incentives-cheap-loans-and-bargain-batteries-eu-tariff-report-finds/#:~:text=A%20breakdown%20of%20aid%20available,tariff%20rather%20than%2037.6%20percent. https://www.carscoops.com/2024/07/china-gives-its-automakers... [1]: https://www.imd.org/ibyimd/innovation/chinas-automotive-odyssey-from-joint-ventures-to-global-ev-dominance/ https://www.imd.org/ibyimd/innovation/chinas-automotive-odys... [2]: https://harris-sliwoski.com/chinalawblog/china-joint-venture/#:~:text=Intellectual%20Property%20Theft&text=All%20too%20often%2C%20Chinese%20companies,more%20common%20during%20economic%20downturns. https://harris-sliwoski.com/chinalawblog/china-joint-venture...
    - bink 2y ago
      Coincidentally around the same time that the US bailed out its own automakers. The US also heavily subsidizes it's own auto industry, see the billions loaned to Rivian to build their new plant.
rvba 2y ago
Why do you say "China was nor subtle by rejecting a plane"? It was some semi private line, who would have to pay twice the usual price in a unfavorable market. The part apparatchiks didnt need to order them. They just dont want to overpay.
sanderjd 2y ago
Recession is the base case. The worst case is ... worse.
- mcguire 2y ago
  Well, now, that depends on when and who exactly is involved in large scale protests against the Trump administration. If they call out the active duty military against middle-aged, white, protestors, they'll have a problem. If it's against students and minorities,...
danielmarkbruce 2y ago
Plus China as a country seems more capable of "toughing it out". That's not necessarily a compliment on the situation, but it is what it is.
a_bonobo 2y ago
I'm already seeing this in the life-sciences. Illumina, who used to own the game of DNA sequencing, has been laying people off left and right. All my contacts within the company are laid off. Illumina is a special edge case as they've been a victim of souring China-US relations before the tariffs even started: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/illumina-aims-cut-100m-costs-following-china-import-ban https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/illumina-aims-cut-100m...

roughly 2y ago

> There are of course quite a few large US businesses being affected directly by this stuff. I imagine that they are not happy with this. And that level of unhappiness will translate into shifts in political donations. Which, I'm sure is something that will get more apparent as next year's mid term elections get closer. That's a stick that can be (and probably already is) wielded that might produce results soonish. I sincerely hope you’re right, but all initial evidence is the oligarchs kissing the ring, not pulling the strings. Maybe when it becomes obvious that they’re not getting anything for all that abasement they change tacks, but nothing in the Trump era has suggested to me that these folks have the tiger by anything but the tail.

wing-_-nuts 2y ago
>all initial evidence is the oligarchs kissing the ring, not pulling the strings. It was comical how quickly amazon back pedaled on showing tariffs transparently in pricing as soon as the whitehouse complained.
- roughly 2y ago
  One thing that’s been interesting (in a Ralp-Wiggins-esque “I’m in danger!” type way) to watch over the last few years is all the “end of history” types re-learning that Mao was right and that economic might only translates into real power when you use it to buy guns. Europe spent a decade trying to tie Russia into the global economy only to find all that cheap energy meant that when Russia walked into the Ukraine, they were on the wrong side of the ledger to throw their weight around. In the US, our oligarchs didn’t realize how much they were relying on the fact that US government officials believed the same lies about the power of capital that they did, and were caught entirely off guard when Trump walked in, picked up the gun on the table, pointed it at them, and said “I’ll take your wallet, please.” There’s a whole generation of neoliberals learning Littlefinger’s lesson these days: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifaRhL95HUM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifaRhL95HUM - it’s a shame the rest of us are stuck on this ride with them.
  - lenerdenator 2y ago
    To be fair, life's better when you don't have to rely on the guns. If you're willing to work together to make the pie bigger for everyone, peacefully, you get further. Which is why you have to occasionally knock the people willing to exploit the peaceful order, off.
    - lazide 2y ago
      Which takes guns. And back at square 1.
      - otterley 2y ago

rotexo 2y ago

csomar 2y ago

> The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components In a sane world, that's what targeted tariffs are. You don't want to tariffs across the whole board because you might affect exporting manufactures whose prices will go through the roof and might experience disruption. It is kind of what is happening with auto tariffs now that there is a huge blow back but one wonder how many industries out there can't voice their concerns or are not aware of this.

jgeada 2y ago
Any assumption that there is targeting or any sort of planning by the chaos goblins we currently have running this administration is long on hope and short on reality.
- lazide 2y ago
  Well, they’re targeting right at the jugular.

robomartin 2y ago

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clearly in the horizon for both regions within a decade or two? To be sure, what's going on today should have been done twenty to thirty years ago. Doing this today is far more difficult and painful. I think Kevin O'Leary put it best: What we want a reasonably free markets. It isn't just about tariffs. It's about regulatory lockout, intellectual property and more. For example, India imposes as much as a 110% tariff on US cars and trucks. The list of such actions --which also included non-tariff rules-based restrictions-- is long. From China imposing up to 25% on our cars, autos, chemicals and food to the EU, Canada, Mexico and others following suit. Brazil collected over $800 million in retaliatory tariffs blocking US pharmaceuticals, autos and textiles. In other words, the relationship with hundreds of countries has been very one-sided for a long time. US industry needs to export to thrive, but if countries like Turkey impose 140% tariffs on our autos and trucks, markets are de-facto shut down. How long can any country survive this kind of inequity? So, yeah, this is a rough moment. I hope it is for the best. Everyone benefits from a more open and balanced market. And then, of course, there's one of the elephants in the room: Intellectual property theft. Going back to Kevin O'Learly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKkdor6_rw4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKkdor6_rw4 https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=567065763062114 https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=567065763062114 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGFWWqbDwuw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGFWWqbDwuw https://www.tmz.com/watch/kevin-o-leary-china-tariffs-04-09-2025/ https://www.tmz.com/watch/kevin-o-leary-china-tariffs-04-09-...

HFguy 2y ago
I think you do a good job of high-lighting the underlying problem. Which is not being discussed enough. And that the current situation can go on a long time but not forever.
pbronez 2y ago
> the elephants in the room: Intellectual property theft. Yup. China has been systematically stealing the IP of anything made in their country since forever. Companies kept falling for it because the potential market looked so big. Now BYD makes cars as good as Tesla and it's all #ShockedPikachuFace

ryandrake 2y ago

> Worst case all this triggers a recession. Recession is probably the best case scenario. If only we get through this with just a recession! The world's economic inter-dependence is one of the things that have kept World War 3 at bay for decades. Nobody's going to start a hot war with their neighbor when they rely on each other through trading. Russia shows what happens when you economically isolate a country with sanctions and force them to rely on themselves economically: It reduces one of the downsides of warfighting. Do we really want an isolated, independent and self-sufficient China?

immibis 2y ago
So what you're saying is, there still won't be a world war, but everyone else might go to war with the US.
- corimaith 2y ago
  A world war for the right to sell goods to USA? That sounds like straight up imperialism.
  - immibis 2y ago
    No, just for its natural resources, land for settlements and its people as slaves.
Teever 2y ago
That isn't the lesson from Russia invading Ukraine. The lesson from Russia invading Ukraine is that the presence of authoritarians anywhere is a threat to democracies everywhere. The kind of people who crush freedom aren't content to just do so within their own borders and will eventually do so to others around them. As such it should be the priority of all democracies to extinguish authoritarians whenever possible.
- nemothekid 2y ago
  This is circular reasoning. You are pretty much saying democracies should be aggressors first. If you swap `authoritarian` and `democracy` in your statement, it will also ring true. However, the parent poster paints a different picture. If people in Moscow were economically threatened by reduced trade caused by an invasion, the elite appetite for such a move would be reduced.

kolanos 2y ago

> At least, I imagine the CEOs of GM, Ford, Boeing, etc. might have a thing or two to say about seeing China disappear as a market where they can do business to sell stuff.... They largely weren't doing this anyway due to Chinese economic policy. For example: > Ford's market share in China has declined significantly.In 2024, Ford's market share was 1.6%, down from a peak of 4.7% in 2015. Over the past three years, Ford's average market share in China has been a modest 1.8%.

MaxPock 2y ago
GM used to sell more cars in China than in the US .Same with VW , Mercedes and BMW
- kolanos 2y ago
  While this is true, this changed around 2009. What happened? The Chinese government started heavily subsidizing domestic automakers [0]while continuing the joint venture requirements for foreign automakers, which started in 1979 [1]. These joint venture requirements have been a source of significant intellectual property theft [2]. All foreign automakers operating in China, not just U.S. ones, have either faced bankruptcy or a significant downturn in market share in China over the past 15 years. [0]: https://www.carscoops.com/2024/07/china-gives-its-automakers-grants-sales-incentives-cheap-loans-and-bargain-batteries-eu-tariff-report-finds/#:~:text=A%20breakdown%20of%20aid%20available,tariff%20rather%20than%2037.6%20percent. https://www.carscoops.com/2024/07/china-gives-its-automakers... [1]: https://www.imd.org/ibyimd/innovation/chinas-automotive-odyssey-from-joint-ventures-to-global-ev-dominance/ https://www.imd.org/ibyimd/innovation/chinas-automotive-odys... [2]: https://harris-sliwoski.com/chinalawblog/china-joint-venture/#:~:text=Intellectual%20Property%20Theft&text=All%20too%20often%2C%20Chinese%20companies,more%20common%20during%20economic%20downturns. https://harris-sliwoski.com/chinalawblog/china-joint-venture...
  - bink 2y ago
    Coincidentally around the same time that the US bailed out its own automakers. The US also heavily subsidizes it's own auto industry, see the billions loaned to Rivian to build their new plant.

rvba 2y ago

Why do you say "China was nor subtle by rejecting a plane"? It was some semi private line, who would have to pay twice the usual price in a unfavorable market. The part apparatchiks didnt need to order them. They just dont want to overpay.

sanderjd 2y ago

Recession is the base case. The worst case is ... worse.

mcguire 2y ago
Well, now, that depends on when and who exactly is involved in large scale protests against the Trump administration. If they call out the active duty military against middle-aged, white, protestors, they'll have a problem. If it's against students and minorities,...

danielmarkbruce 2y ago

Plus China as a country seems more capable of "toughing it out". That's not necessarily a compliment on the situation, but it is what it is.

a_bonobo 2y ago

I'm already seeing this in the life-sciences. Illumina, who used to own the game of DNA sequencing, has been laying people off left and right. All my contacts within the company are laid off. Illumina is a special edge case as they've been a victim of souring China-US relations before the tariffs even started: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/illumina-aims-cut-100m-costs-following-china-import-ban https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/illumina-aims-cut-100m...