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It’s going to be similar to Brexit. It won’t cause the economy to collapse with alarms going off everywhere. It will instead be a quiet, slow and sustained sh

It’s going to be similar to Brexit. It won’t cause the economy to collapse with alarms going off everywhere. It will instead be a quiet, slow and sustained shrinking of the economy.

throwawaymaths 1y ago
> It’s going to be similar to Brexit. Agreed, this is the most likely outcome in the short term. In the long term there are going to be unexpeted knock-on effects. Even a modest definancialization of the American economy makes it more robust to demographic changes and the end of the population-driven growth era. Lowered imports from abroad (especially china) and decreased consumption writ large means lower carbon footprint. Maintenance of airplanes getting more expensive means people fly less (already happening), again, lower carbon footprint.
- jajko 1y ago
  You sure like whats happening now to keep making up excuses for why its actually good, all over this thread.
  - throwawaymaths 1y ago
    theres a lot to hate about this administration right now.
GardenLetter27 1y ago
Where is the shrinking? https://www.statista.com/statistics/1370599/g7-country-gdp-growth/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1370599/g7-country-gdp-g... The UK was the hardest hit by COVID, but it has recovered well.
- selectodude 1y ago
  https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=GB https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?location... Per-capita GDP has been rough in the UK post-brexit.
  - GardenLetter27 1y ago
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2023&locations=GB-FR-IT-ES&start=2000 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2023... But compared to neighbours it's pretty close? I was against Brexit, but I don't think the apocalyptic predictions have been borne out at all.
    - selectodude 1y ago
      Trade is bi-lateral. The UK’s trading partners were also harmed by their decision to leave. Short term, it’s just simply a net negative for everybody. Long term (decades), the UK will have a long run growth rate lower than the rest of the EU. Granted, our lack of a crystal ball means that we can just debate outcomes ad nauseum.
- mmarq 1y ago
  If I recall correctly, the UK changed the way in which they compute the government contribution to GDP (going from G being just cost to some estimate of the output). This caused both the COVID drop and recovery to look steeper.

It’s going to be similar to Brexit. It won’t cause the economy to collapse with alarms going off everywhere. It will instead be a quiet, slow and sustained shrinking of the economy.

throwawaymaths 1y ago

> It’s going to be similar to Brexit. Agreed, this is the most likely outcome in the short term. In the long term there are going to be unexpeted knock-on effects. Even a modest definancialization of the American economy makes it more robust to demographic changes and the end of the population-driven growth era. Lowered imports from abroad (especially china) and decreased consumption writ large means lower carbon footprint. Maintenance of airplanes getting more expensive means people fly less (already happening), again, lower carbon footprint.

jajko 1y ago
You sure like whats happening now to keep making up excuses for why its actually good, all over this thread.
- throwawaymaths 1y ago
  theres a lot to hate about this administration right now.

GardenLetter27 1y ago

Where is the shrinking? https://www.statista.com/statistics/1370599/g7-country-gdp-growth/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1370599/g7-country-gdp-g... The UK was the hardest hit by COVID, but it has recovered well.

selectodude 1y ago
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=GB https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?location... Per-capita GDP has been rough in the UK post-brexit.
- GardenLetter27 1y ago
  https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2023&locations=GB-FR-IT-ES&start=2000 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2023... But compared to neighbours it's pretty close? I was against Brexit, but I don't think the apocalyptic predictions have been borne out at all.
  - selectodude 1y ago
    Trade is bi-lateral. The UK’s trading partners were also harmed by their decision to leave. Short term, it’s just simply a net negative for everybody. Long term (decades), the UK will have a long run growth rate lower than the rest of the EU. Granted, our lack of a crystal ball means that we can just debate outcomes ad nauseum.
mmarq 1y ago
If I recall correctly, the UK changed the way in which they compute the government contribution to GDP (going from G being just cost to some estimate of the output). This caused both the COVID drop and recovery to look steeper.