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This a very context-free analogy. The biggest reason why it took a long time for cars to replace horses was high price (simply stated: most people couldn't aff

This a very context-free analogy. The biggest reason why it took a long time for cars to replace horses was high price (simply stated: most people couldn't afford a car even if they wanted one) and lack of infrastructure (it takes years to build roads). We already have the infrastructure and the price will favor self-driving cars. The laws heavily favor safety in cars (not everyone likes seat-belts and yet we have laws requiring people to use them; we have laws banning using a cell-phone while driving, driving while drunk; cars have to build in a way that withstand crashes etc.). As long as it can be demonstrated that self-driving cars are safer (and they are), there will not only be pressure to allow them but to require them and eventually ban human drivers altogether. Once the self-driving cars are allowed, the lower price and greater convenience will make it a blockbuster. I don't want to own a car, I don't want to operate it, I just want to get from Mission to SOMA fast and cheaply and self-driving cars will be able to offer that.

abruzzi 14y ago
Price will favor self driving cars? What about all the lower income people that are limping along with $2000 fifteen year old cars? So if we give the industry 20 years to get to the point where you can but an old used first gen self driving car for $2k, how well do you think all those automation mechanisms will still function?
brc 14y ago
Roads existed long before cars. Even the Romans had paved roads. That is not a valid argument. The reason people took a long time to take up cars was cost. It took time for cost to come down and reliability to go up. Once that happened, they were adopted widely. Even then, it took a long time for cars to disappear. Any photo of San Francisco around 1915 or so will show plenty of horse-drawn vehicles on the roads, and cars will be present, but scarce. This is 7 years after the Model T entered production. abruzzi has answered this well - not everyone can afford a self-drive car. They will not be cheap initially - far from it, in fact. I'll grant you that the cost-reduction time will be faster in this instance - nobody has to invent the modern production line - but the cost of development and warranting of all the parts will be expensive. Replacing the vehicle fleet takes at least 10 years. Replacing it with self-driving vehicles could easily take twice that long, even if you started today, which we are patently not.
- specialist 14y ago
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Roads_Movement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Roads_Movement
  - brc 14y ago
    Needs a modern 'good broadband' movement. Thanks for the link.

abruzzi 14y ago

Price will favor self driving cars? What about all the lower income people that are limping along with $2000 fifteen year old cars? So if we give the industry 20 years to get to the point where you can but an old used first gen self driving car for $2k, how well do you think all those automation mechanisms will still function?

brc 14y ago

Roads existed long before cars. Even the Romans had paved roads. That is not a valid argument. The reason people took a long time to take up cars was cost. It took time for cost to come down and reliability to go up. Once that happened, they were adopted widely. Even then, it took a long time for cars to disappear. Any photo of San Francisco around 1915 or so will show plenty of horse-drawn vehicles on the roads, and cars will be present, but scarce. This is 7 years after the Model T entered production. abruzzi has answered this well - not everyone can afford a self-drive car. They will not be cheap initially - far from it, in fact. I'll grant you that the cost-reduction time will be faster in this instance - nobody has to invent the modern production line - but the cost of development and warranting of all the parts will be expensive. Replacing the vehicle fleet takes at least 10 years. Replacing it with self-driving vehicles could easily take twice that long, even if you started today, which we are patently not.

specialist 14y ago
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Roads_Movement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Roads_Movement
- brc 14y ago
  Needs a modern 'good broadband' movement. Thanks for the link.