6 ms·

Tesla has minted a fortune on broken promises and vaporware. As someone who purchased FSD, would be glad to see them lose their shirts on this one.

porphyra 1y ago
As someone who also purchased FSD, I was able to drive hundreds of kilometers without any disengagements even though my car is an older HW3 with 12.6. I fully believe that with some Waymo-like conservative route planning and teleoperator backup, they will be able to achieve their robotaxi goals this year.
- dyauspitr 1y ago
  Tesla is going nowhere without LiDAR.
  - porphyra 1y ago
    O3 can now play geoguessr better than master level human players. It can also beat master level Codeforces competitive programmers. I wouldn't discount the ability of AI to make sense of images far better than humans possibly could, all the while beating them at logical thinking, especially in a restricted domain like driving.
    - scarface_74 1y ago
      It also has the help of being able to do web searches and when o3 fails, it doesn’t kill people.
    - smt88 1y ago
      AI can't make cameras see in the dark. LIDAR produces light, so it doesn't matter if there isn't enough of it in a particular environment.
      - porphyra 1y ago
        headlights can make cameras see in the dark
        smt88 1y ago
        Left and right of the car? What about behind it? Waymo has 360-degree LIDAR and, not coincidentally, is the state of the art.
    - janalsncm 1y ago
      AI isn’t magic. If there isn’t enough information in the inputs, you can’t expect reliable results. It’s the same principle in all of software: garbage in, garbage out. If there simply isn’t enough visual information, vision-only will fail. https://youtu.be/IQJL3htsDyQ https://youtu.be/IQJL3htsDyQ
      - porphyra 1y ago
        This Mark Rober video has been debunked several times: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzZhIsGFL6g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzZhIsGFL6g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cxTO8g47_k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cxTO8g47_k
        sorcerer-mar 1y ago
        That is not a debunking... That's someone running a similar experiment and getting a different result. That would debunk the claim that Teslas can never detect a painted wall. It does not debunk the claim that Teslas will sometimes fail to detect a painted wall. And in a safety-critical system, the distinction is not mere pedantry.
        porphyra 1y ago
        I mean he didn't even use FSD.
      - waterhouse 1y ago
        Theoretically, if there's not enough visual information for AI drivers, then there's not enough visual information for human drivers, and that's a problem with the road. (Which, to be sure, occasionally there are roads like this: e.g. merging onto a higher-speed thoroughfare from a lower level, with a very short distance between "where you're in a position to see the merging traffic (and not that much of it)" and "where the roads have fully merged (and there's no shoulder)".)
  - DecentShoes 1y ago
    I strongly disagree. Go look at the videos of the current iteration of FSD.
    - sorcerer-mar 1y ago
      Yes, then read this article: https://www.jalopnik.com/teslas-fsd-is-biased-towards-influencers-and-elon-musk-1851584142/ https://www.jalopnik.com/teslas-fsd-is-biased-towards-influe...
    - cryptoegorophy 1y ago
      Go and actually test drive one and let it FSD you around. Videos don’t do justice. There is always MKBHD kind of biased videos.
  - mensetmanusman 1y ago
    Spinning lidar is not a panacea.
klipt 1y ago
Sadly the US is quite corrupt, so I wouldn't bet against the car company whose CEO has a close personal relationship with the US president.
- nxm 1y ago
  Unlike China, right?
  - klipt 1y ago
    Toyota is Chinese now? I'm just saying that out of two American companies, Waymo and Tesla, Tesla is more likely to benefit from government favors.
mperham 1y ago
The funny thing is that I've owned Gen 3 FSD for five years now and only in the last few months has it gotten noticeably better. It's actually respectable at driving around my city now, can handle roundabouts, make turns, etc.
- FireBeyond 1y ago
  > It's actually respectable at driving around my city now, can handle roundabouts, make turns, etc. This year for sure, guys, for real this time! -- Elon
- moeadham 1y ago
  lol the bar is so low
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
- shreezus 1y ago
  I have noticed the same - Tesla FSD has improved remarkably in the last couple of versions, to the point where it almost never requires interventions. That said, I still don't "trust" FSD to the point where I could comfortably be in the backseat taking a nap just yet. 99% is not "good enough" for something as critical as driving.
  - cryptoegorophy 1y ago
    I actually started to trust V12. V11 was a complete joke vaporware. V12 is a complete game changer that actually drives on par if not better than human. Not a tesla stock holder(all of it is a scam per my retarded opinion), but I am now more than confident that they will start doing self driving this year. Maybe isolated and with some remote interventions here and there, but it feels on par with Waymo. My friend was just testing Waymo and by his words it is not as aggressive (human like) like Tesla on the road where you need to assert yourself to merge.
artursapek 1y ago
I still can't believe they were taking one-time purchases for FSD like... 6 years ago.

porphyra 1y ago

As someone who also purchased FSD, I was able to drive hundreds of kilometers without any disengagements even though my car is an older HW3 with 12.6. I fully believe that with some Waymo-like conservative route planning and teleoperator backup, they will be able to achieve their robotaxi goals this year.

dyauspitr 1y ago
Tesla is going nowhere without LiDAR.
- porphyra 1y ago
  O3 can now play geoguessr better than master level human players. It can also beat master level Codeforces competitive programmers. I wouldn't discount the ability of AI to make sense of images far better than humans possibly could, all the while beating them at logical thinking, especially in a restricted domain like driving.
  - scarface_74 1y ago
    It also has the help of being able to do web searches and when o3 fails, it doesn’t kill people.
  - smt88 1y ago
    AI can't make cameras see in the dark. LIDAR produces light, so it doesn't matter if there isn't enough of it in a particular environment.
    - porphyra 1y ago
      headlights can make cameras see in the dark
      - smt88 1y ago
        Left and right of the car? What about behind it? Waymo has 360-degree LIDAR and, not coincidentally, is the state of the art.
  - janalsncm 1y ago
    AI isn’t magic. If there isn’t enough information in the inputs, you can’t expect reliable results. It’s the same principle in all of software: garbage in, garbage out. If there simply isn’t enough visual information, vision-only will fail. https://youtu.be/IQJL3htsDyQ https://youtu.be/IQJL3htsDyQ
    - porphyra 1y ago
      This Mark Rober video has been debunked several times: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzZhIsGFL6g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzZhIsGFL6g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cxTO8g47_k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cxTO8g47_k
      - sorcerer-mar 1y ago
        That is not a debunking... That's someone running a similar experiment and getting a different result. That would debunk the claim that Teslas can never detect a painted wall. It does not debunk the claim that Teslas will sometimes fail to detect a painted wall. And in a safety-critical system, the distinction is not mere pedantry.
        porphyra 1y ago
        I mean he didn't even use FSD.
    - waterhouse 1y ago
      Theoretically, if there's not enough visual information for AI drivers, then there's not enough visual information for human drivers, and that's a problem with the road. (Which, to be sure, occasionally there are roads like this: e.g. merging onto a higher-speed thoroughfare from a lower level, with a very short distance between "where you're in a position to see the merging traffic (and not that much of it)" and "where the roads have fully merged (and there's no shoulder)".)
- DecentShoes 1y ago
  I strongly disagree. Go look at the videos of the current iteration of FSD.
  - sorcerer-mar 1y ago
    Yes, then read this article: https://www.jalopnik.com/teslas-fsd-is-biased-towards-influencers-and-elon-musk-1851584142/ https://www.jalopnik.com/teslas-fsd-is-biased-towards-influe...
  - cryptoegorophy 1y ago
    Go and actually test drive one and let it FSD you around. Videos don’t do justice. There is always MKBHD kind of biased videos.
- mensetmanusman 1y ago
  Spinning lidar is not a panacea.

klipt 1y ago

Sadly the US is quite corrupt, so I wouldn't bet against the car company whose CEO has a close personal relationship with the US president.

nxm 1y ago
Unlike China, right?
- klipt 1y ago
  Toyota is Chinese now? I'm just saying that out of two American companies, Waymo and Tesla, Tesla is more likely to benefit from government favors.

mperham 1y ago

The funny thing is that I've owned Gen 3 FSD for five years now and only in the last few months has it gotten noticeably better. It's actually respectable at driving around my city now, can handle roundabouts, make turns, etc.

FireBeyond 1y ago
> It's actually respectable at driving around my city now, can handle roundabouts, make turns, etc. This year for sure, guys, for real this time! -- Elon
moeadham 1y ago
lol the bar is so low
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
shreezus 1y ago
I have noticed the same - Tesla FSD has improved remarkably in the last couple of versions, to the point where it almost never requires interventions. That said, I still don't "trust" FSD to the point where I could comfortably be in the backseat taking a nap just yet. 99% is not "good enough" for something as critical as driving.
- cryptoegorophy 1y ago
  I actually started to trust V12. V11 was a complete joke vaporware. V12 is a complete game changer that actually drives on par if not better than human. Not a tesla stock holder(all of it is a scam per my retarded opinion), but I am now more than confident that they will start doing self driving this year. Maybe isolated and with some remote interventions here and there, but it feels on par with Waymo. My friend was just testing Waymo and by his words it is not as aggressive (human like) like Tesla on the road where you need to assert yourself to merge.

artursapek 1y ago

I still can't believe they were taking one-time purchases for FSD like... 6 years ago.