3 ms·

Is autism actually on the rise, or is it just more diagnosed thanks to advances in and availability of diagnoses and general awareness in the population? A lot

Is autism actually on the rise, or is it just more diagnosed thanks to advances in and availability of diagnoses and general awareness in the population? A lot of people that get a fresh autism diagnosis these days recognize the same symptoms in their (grand)parents. Anyway, RFK does seem to focus on food stuffs, by banning certain food dyes (no more lurid froot loops for you (https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2025/04/22/nx-s1-5372637/food-dyes-ban-fda-rfk-kennedy https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2025/04/22/nx...) but also by relaxing food safety laws (https://www.yahoo.com/news/usda-withdraws-plan-limit-salmonella-203952779.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/usda-withdraws-plan-limit-salmone...).

Workaccount2 2y ago
I believe that even non-verbal and low-IQ versions of autism (ones that are unambiguous to diagnose) are also on the rise.
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/new-research-contradicts-rfk-jrs-claim-severe-autism-cases-are-rising-rcna202791 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/new-research-cont... > The new research being shared this week found that only mild cases rose from 2000 to 2016. > According to the analysis, 1.2 out of 1,000 children had autism with moderate or significant impairment in 2016, compared with 1.5 out of 1,000 in 2000. By contrast, mild cases rose 139% during that period — from 3.1 out of 1,000 to 7.3 out of 1,000.
d1sxeyes 2y ago
I did some research on this a while back, conclusion is far from certain. There are some clear pointers to increased diagnosis (changes to the definition of autism in later DSM versions, improved awareness and access to literature), but there are also studies that indicate an increase in the number of cases. It’s impossible to be sure what’s driving this: pollutants, increased average parental age, or some other factor. Given that autism is highly heritable, most experts are sceptical of the idea that environmental factors could drive a major increase in the numbers, although again, it could be the case that genetics predicts only predisposition towards autism, rather than the condition itself. A lot of wiffle to say “we don’t know”, but if there is a genuine increase in the incidence of autism in the population for etiological reasons, it’s relatively small.
- bhouston 2y ago
  > Given that autism is highly heritable, most experts are sceptical of the idea that environmental factors could drive a major increase in the numbers But we do know that age of fathers does drive increase autism rates - thus while there is likely a genetic component, there are degradations related to age that further increase the risk: https://www.thetransmitter.org/spectrum/risk-of-autism-spikes-for-children-of-older-men/?fspec=1 https://www.thetransmitter.org/spectrum/risk-of-autism-spike...
- tptacek 2y ago
  High heritability doesn't exclude environmental factors. Your environment is also inherited, in a way captured by broad-sense heritability metrics. (I don't have a big concern with what you're driving at, just with the notion of using heritability statistics dispositively this way).

Workaccount2 2y ago

I believe that even non-verbal and low-IQ versions of autism (ones that are unambiguous to diagnose) are also on the rise.

ceejayoz 2y ago
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/new-research-contradicts-rfk-jrs-claim-severe-autism-cases-are-rising-rcna202791 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/new-research-cont... > The new research being shared this week found that only mild cases rose from 2000 to 2016. > According to the analysis, 1.2 out of 1,000 children had autism with moderate or significant impairment in 2016, compared with 1.5 out of 1,000 in 2000. By contrast, mild cases rose 139% during that period — from 3.1 out of 1,000 to 7.3 out of 1,000.

d1sxeyes 2y ago

I did some research on this a while back, conclusion is far from certain. There are some clear pointers to increased diagnosis (changes to the definition of autism in later DSM versions, improved awareness and access to literature), but there are also studies that indicate an increase in the number of cases. It’s impossible to be sure what’s driving this: pollutants, increased average parental age, or some other factor. Given that autism is highly heritable, most experts are sceptical of the idea that environmental factors could drive a major increase in the numbers, although again, it could be the case that genetics predicts only predisposition towards autism, rather than the condition itself. A lot of wiffle to say “we don’t know”, but if there is a genuine increase in the incidence of autism in the population for etiological reasons, it’s relatively small.

bhouston 2y ago
> Given that autism is highly heritable, most experts are sceptical of the idea that environmental factors could drive a major increase in the numbers But we do know that age of fathers does drive increase autism rates - thus while there is likely a genetic component, there are degradations related to age that further increase the risk: https://www.thetransmitter.org/spectrum/risk-of-autism-spikes-for-children-of-older-men/?fspec=1 https://www.thetransmitter.org/spectrum/risk-of-autism-spike...
tptacek 2y ago
High heritability doesn't exclude environmental factors. Your environment is also inherited, in a way captured by broad-sense heritability metrics. (I don't have a big concern with what you're driving at, just with the notion of using heritability statistics dispositively this way).