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Uber bet incorrectly that we would have widespread self driving robo-taxis by now. The idea was to lose money gaining massive market share and then replace the

by _mlbt 1y ago

Uber bet incorrectly that we would have widespread self driving robo-taxis by now. The idea was to lose money gaining massive market share and then replace the human gig economy workers with AI.

trollbridge 1y ago
Which seemed like an iffy bet. Someone who invents self-driving robo-taxis isn't going to want to give away their profit margin to Uber. Why would they? You can just open up the Waymo app and order, well, a Waymo.
- dymk 1y ago
  Uber, for a long time, was trying to build their own, not buy third party
- trollbridge 1y ago
  Yeah, and building their own... seemed like a classic mistake where they confused the talent to replace the taxi dispatch telephone number with the talent needed top make a self-driving car, which are two very different things.
  - radlad 1y ago
    I missed that Uber sold off ATG in 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/world/uber-sells-atg-self-driving-business-to-aurora-at-4-billion-idUSKBN28I0A3/ https://www.reuters.com/article/world/uber-sells-atg-self-dr...
- _mlbt 1y ago
  I suspect the plan was just to buy, merge, or partner with whatever company succeeded in self driving first. For a lot of startups, acquiring market share is the hard part, the technology is relatively easy. Obviously that’s not the case with full self driving vehicles, but the rest of Uber’s technology is fairly straightforward.
- itchyjunk 1y ago
  Why would Waymo want to maintain a large fleet when they want to focus on the technology? Self driving != self maintaining. Isn't Waymo and Uber partnering? [0] [0] https://waymo.com/blog/2024/09/waymo-and-uber-expand-partnership https://waymo.com/blog/2024/09/waymo-and-uber-expand-partner...
  - chimtim 1y ago
    Uber currently doesn’t maintain a large (or any) fleet either. I wonder how much the marginal gains from not paying drivers is shaved off by fleet maintenance of expensive cars.
    - trollbridge 1y ago
      Nope. They shift all of the costs of owning a vehicle onto their drivers. They will be happy to lease a vehicle to you as the driver (with a predatory, abusive contract), but even this is almost entirely operated by third parties.
- scarface_74 1y ago
  Well this doesn’t jibe with the current reality that Waymo is teaming with Uber right now. To make Waymo economically viable, it needs to be almost 100% utilized. Also because people hate using multiple apps, you need an “aggregator” (see Stratechery). If I go to a city and I need a ride from the airport, my default is going to be to open Uber - not to say “oh yeah, Waymo is available when I fly into ATL but not when I fly into JFK”. Uber was even available when I flew into QXP from San Jose Costa Rica (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quepos_La_Managua_Airport https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quepos_La_Managua_Airport). Also many businesses have “Uber for Business” where business travelers can automatically get their Uber rides charged to the company instead of having to do reimbursements. How many companies are going to establish relations with Waymo to and tell their sales people/consultants - “use the Waymo app in cities where it is available otherwise use Uber”? Just like I’m not going to open some taxi app when I fly into DCA. But I will open the Uber app and choose a taxi (with the standard taxi regulations) if it is more convenient. Business travellers is a lot more lucrative for companies than consumers. But getting back to Waymo and utilization, if you know you need both enough capicity to handle peak utilization and want to have capacity to handle steady state, you are going to have Waymo as a baseline and people that will come out when they think it is worth it based on current surge pricing. Having enough Waymo cars available to handle peak capacity would be about as dumb as Intuit having enough server capacity in a Colo to handle tax season instead of using AWS and autoscaling. Uber is also managing maintenance for Waymo in the cities it is available.
  - trollbridge 1y ago
    When in Israel some people insisted on using the Uber app. Well, all Uber did was dispatch a Gett taxi.. with a 15% surcharge. And it turns out they also de-prioritised Uber's requests. So anyone who actually knew what they were doing would just install the Gett taxi app, which was cheaper and better than Uber. If such an app existed in DCA, I would certainly install it. But I wouldn't bother with an app at all in DCA, since they already have an excellent and affordable taxi system. (Taxis in DC are cheaper than Ubers, particularly during surge pricing; if you want an app, install Curb.) "Uber for Business" is an even more giant scam, where it costs more than Uber does personally. At the last place I worked, employees were advised to go ahead and set it up but switch to Personal and just request reimbursement because of how large the price difference was. But you're right, Uber will always have a niche of people who are unable to install or use anything other than the Uber app and want to be blissfully unaware that better alternatives exist.
candiddevmike 1y ago
Uber sold to investors that we would have widespread self-driving robo-taxis.

by _mlbt 1y ago

Uber bet incorrectly that we would have widespread self driving robo-taxis by now. The idea was to lose money gaining massive market share and then replace the human gig economy workers with AI.

trollbridge 1y ago

Which seemed like an iffy bet. Someone who invents self-driving robo-taxis isn't going to want to give away their profit margin to Uber. Why would they? You can just open up the Waymo app and order, well, a Waymo.

dymk 1y ago
Uber, for a long time, was trying to build their own, not buy third party
trollbridge 1y ago
Yeah, and building their own... seemed like a classic mistake where they confused the talent to replace the taxi dispatch telephone number with the talent needed top make a self-driving car, which are two very different things.
- radlad 1y ago
  I missed that Uber sold off ATG in 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/world/uber-sells-atg-self-driving-business-to-aurora-at-4-billion-idUSKBN28I0A3/ https://www.reuters.com/article/world/uber-sells-atg-self-dr...
_mlbt 1y ago
I suspect the plan was just to buy, merge, or partner with whatever company succeeded in self driving first. For a lot of startups, acquiring market share is the hard part, the technology is relatively easy. Obviously that’s not the case with full self driving vehicles, but the rest of Uber’s technology is fairly straightforward.
itchyjunk 1y ago
Why would Waymo want to maintain a large fleet when they want to focus on the technology? Self driving != self maintaining. Isn't Waymo and Uber partnering? [0] [0] https://waymo.com/blog/2024/09/waymo-and-uber-expand-partnership https://waymo.com/blog/2024/09/waymo-and-uber-expand-partner...
- chimtim 1y ago
  Uber currently doesn’t maintain a large (or any) fleet either. I wonder how much the marginal gains from not paying drivers is shaved off by fleet maintenance of expensive cars.
  - trollbridge 1y ago
    Nope. They shift all of the costs of owning a vehicle onto their drivers. They will be happy to lease a vehicle to you as the driver (with a predatory, abusive contract), but even this is almost entirely operated by third parties.
scarface_74 1y ago
Well this doesn’t jibe with the current reality that Waymo is teaming with Uber right now. To make Waymo economically viable, it needs to be almost 100% utilized. Also because people hate using multiple apps, you need an “aggregator” (see Stratechery). If I go to a city and I need a ride from the airport, my default is going to be to open Uber - not to say “oh yeah, Waymo is available when I fly into ATL but not when I fly into JFK”. Uber was even available when I flew into QXP from San Jose Costa Rica (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quepos_La_Managua_Airport https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quepos_La_Managua_Airport). Also many businesses have “Uber for Business” where business travelers can automatically get their Uber rides charged to the company instead of having to do reimbursements. How many companies are going to establish relations with Waymo to and tell their sales people/consultants - “use the Waymo app in cities where it is available otherwise use Uber”? Just like I’m not going to open some taxi app when I fly into DCA. But I will open the Uber app and choose a taxi (with the standard taxi regulations) if it is more convenient. Business travellers is a lot more lucrative for companies than consumers. But getting back to Waymo and utilization, if you know you need both enough capicity to handle peak utilization and want to have capacity to handle steady state, you are going to have Waymo as a baseline and people that will come out when they think it is worth it based on current surge pricing. Having enough Waymo cars available to handle peak capacity would be about as dumb as Intuit having enough server capacity in a Colo to handle tax season instead of using AWS and autoscaling. Uber is also managing maintenance for Waymo in the cities it is available.
- trollbridge 1y ago
  When in Israel some people insisted on using the Uber app. Well, all Uber did was dispatch a Gett taxi.. with a 15% surcharge. And it turns out they also de-prioritised Uber's requests. So anyone who actually knew what they were doing would just install the Gett taxi app, which was cheaper and better than Uber. If such an app existed in DCA, I would certainly install it. But I wouldn't bother with an app at all in DCA, since they already have an excellent and affordable taxi system. (Taxis in DC are cheaper than Ubers, particularly during surge pricing; if you want an app, install Curb.) "Uber for Business" is an even more giant scam, where it costs more than Uber does personally. At the last place I worked, employees were advised to go ahead and set it up but switch to Personal and just request reimbursement because of how large the price difference was. But you're right, Uber will always have a niche of people who are unable to install or use anything other than the Uber app and want to be blissfully unaware that better alternatives exist.

candiddevmike 1y ago

Uber sold to investors that we would have widespread self-driving robo-taxis.