The survey questions they asked are bad questions if you’re attempting to answer the question about future labor state. However they didn’t ask that, they asked

The survey questions they asked are bad questions if you’re attempting to answer the question about future labor state. However they didn’t ask that, they asked existing employees how LLMs have changed their workplace. This is the wrong question. The question should be to hiring managers: Do you expect LLM based tools to increase or decrease your projected hiring of full time employees? LLM workflows are already *displacing* entry-level labor because people are reaching for copilot/windsurf/CGPT instead of hiring a contract developer, researcher, BD person. I’m watching this happen across management in US startups. It’s displacing job growth in entry level positions across primary writing copy, admin tasks or research. You’re not going to find it in statistics immediately because it’s not a 1:1 replacement. Much like the 1971 labor-productivity separation that everyone scratched their head about (answer: labor was outsourced and capital kept all value gains), we will see another asymptote to that labor productivity graph based on displacement not replacement.