5 ms·

Tesla is in worse shape than you think

26 points by FireBeyond 2y ago

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
FireBeyond 2y ago
> The bottom line problem at Tesla is its vanishing bottom line. A deeper look at its first quarter report shows it’s now losing money on what should be its ostensible reason for existence – selling cars. > It was only able to post a $409 million profit in the quarter thanks to the sale of $595 million worth of regulatory credits to other automakers. This last part should be alarming to Tesla "fans". In every Tesla post here, there are those who tout the "Tesla is making huge profits, they have nothing to worry about".
- cratermoon 2y ago
  Worth noting that DOGE's smash-and-grab on regulatory agencies is almost certain, given how chaotic and incompetent the actions are, to bump into Tesla's dependencies on federal money. We've already seen knock-on affects of the tariff war, which merit a single short mention in the article.
  - jmye 2y ago
    In a rational world, I’d think you were right. In the weirdo, crony world we currently appear to live in, I expect that all subsidies to competitors will end and Tesla’s will remain untouched via fiat. There’s just no reason for an administration that already produced a state-run ad for the company to stop cutting them breaks.
    - cratermoon 2y ago
      In a competent world, they'd be able to determine the difference between ones that affect Tesla and ones that don't. I'm not sure we're in that world.
      - jmye 2y ago
        Ha, fair point - I suppose we could find out if they’ll get lucky anyway with a couple of basic ChatGPT prompts.
duxup 2y ago
It's not a great when the head of the company is there to announce that they are in some turn of phrase or another "not dead" or not close to it. Just having to talk about that seems bad...
JohnnyHerz 2y ago
i refuse read the biased news from CNN or FOX or MSNBC However, I've read countless Bloomberg articles on Tesla, and the company has significant competitive advantage over every automaker (Including BYD) when it comes to manufacturing and selling EV's in the US and elsewhere. If you are inclined to drive an EV, or own stock in an EV company, Tesla is still the gold standard.
- sidibe 2y ago
  It's like the gold standard in that it's something that used to be a big deal in the past.
- cantrecallmypwd 2y ago
  BYD has overtaken Tesla technically but isn't allowed in the US due to anti-competitive, pseudo-nativist protectionism (and also a lack of homologation which doesn't make financial sense because of the previous point.)
  - JohnnyHerz 2y ago
    "homologation" ...thanks for teaching me a new word that nobody would understand if i ever used it. “Don't use a five-dollar word when a fifty-cent word will do.” ― Mark Twain
incomingpain 2y ago
Elon lied and said he had funding secured to take tesla private. SEC came in and got a settlement from tesla because it was a crime. This in late 2018 however changed the situation greatly at tesla. Shortly after this, yes the model Y and Cybertruck eventually happened but tesla really slowed down. Not well known, but essentially the usa government took control of tesla after this. The government even voided his compensation as being ceo. Essentially forcing him to work for free. If I look at Tesla's financials right now. 12.87% % of Shares Held by All Insider But "all insider" isn't just Elon himself. That's all the peoples at the top. You might imagine that Tesla is basically on autopilot now. Elon doesnt even own that much of tesla anymore. Doesnt really direct it much anymore. Far more interest in other private interests like spacex. Then you have political movements of domestic terrorists firebombing and vandalizing teslas that have nothing at all to do with elon or tesla. Tesla is in bad shape.
- tenacious_tuna 2y ago
  > firebombing and vandalizing teslas that have nothing at all to do with elon Can you elaborate on this? AFAIK it's entirely to do with Elon & his politics.
  - incomingpain 2y ago
    The ownership of a tesla car after it's sold has nothing to do with elon. Any debt moves to someone else. Insurance is someone else. Elon and his financial interests are not involved at all. 0$ impact to elon. Moreover, if you're looking at politics. Republicans dont own teslas... it was democrats who pushed electric cars and tended to buy teslas. So it's democrats destroying other democrat's cars. What's very suspicious to me is that because of the firebombings, now republicans are buying teslas? lol what? did tesla realize they were politically walled in sales and have staged this to sell more? perhaps too conspiracy.
    - dc396 2y ago
      > Elon and his financial interests are not involved at all. 0$ impact to elon. This would only be true if Elon did not own any TSLA stock. > Moreover, if you're looking at politics. Republicans dont own teslas... it was democrats who pushed electric cars and tended to buy teslas. So it's democrats destroying other democrat's cars. From https://x.com/i/grok/share/vqgQXxcDQZN99MYy69UYCZKxz https://x.com/i/grok/share/vqgQXxcDQZN99MYy69UYCZKxz "However, by late 2023 (the start of the 2024 model year), that shifted dramatically—only 15% of Tesla buyers were Democrats, while Republicans rose slightly to 32%, and Independents jumped to 44%."
panick21_ 2y ago
I strongly moved out of Tesla when at the same time, Semi wasn't moving forward, Cybertruck seemed questionable and somehow they decided against Model 2 (affordable model). Not going for a mass market Model 2 was really where I lost interest. I never believed in the FSD beyond some additional revenue, but instead of focusing making a nice product, they just used it as a beta. I really hopped they wouldn't just do 'a truck' but would quickly build a single line to build a trucks, a large SUV and a van on one platform. But the Cybertruck hard-locks you into a very limited and unique construction. The fundamental technology of the Cybertruck seems pretty good to me, but I would want them to build multiple vehicles on that kind of platform. Between Pickups, Vans and large SUV, you would be hitting 3 huge markets. Another issue is that they used their good efficiency numbers to put smaller batteries into the car. This worked while other were not very efficient. But the competitors were willing to put a bit more battery into the car and thus ended up with sometimes better range. There were a bunch of other issues stacking up that I think they never really fully figured out. The biggest sin of all is Robotaxi. I just never fucking worked. Going all in into Robotaxi instead of, cars that can actually be sold is crazy. They somehow believe that Robotaxi will collapse the car market by 80%, and then of those left over 20% the Model 3 and Model Y can dominate that. Completely idiotic analysis in my opinion, from many different perspectives. I already pulled out most of it before Musk went full politics. And then I eliminated the position when Musk went all in on Trump. It was a good investment as it lasted.
- duxup 2y ago
  It does seem like Tesla hit a home run of sorts and sort of keeps swinging for the fences rather than trying to bat for a good average.
  - panick21_ 2y ago
    Hyperfocus is one of Musk big strength. Like it was for Jobs. The power of saying no. Having a clear vision and focusing the company on that. When Tesla was working on 3/Y they had that. And it really worked. But as a car company after you have a car like that, you need to move into many niches large and small. And you can't have the overall company focus on any one project. You need a pipeline of new cars, new upgrades and so on. And then the thing they did seem to primarily focus on, FSD, didn't work nearly as well as Musk thought. He got obsessed with thinking AI was on an S-Curve upwards and it would just be solved fast.
m463 2y ago
I looked the other day, and I saw cybertrucks with discounts and free everything including supercharging for life and self-driving.
- nunez 2y ago
  Yup. Repeated 0% APR offers on their best selling vehicle (Model Y) and free supercharging. Apparently they are also throwing in CCS adapters that were $450 just last year. They wouldn't have done any of this last year.
mattAHuman 2y ago
[flagged]

26 points by FireBeyond 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

> The bottom line problem at Tesla is its vanishing bottom line. A deeper look at its first quarter report shows it’s now losing money on what should be its ostensible reason for existence – selling cars. > It was only able to post a $409 million profit in the quarter thanks to the sale of $595 million worth of regulatory credits to other automakers. This last part should be alarming to Tesla "fans". In every Tesla post here, there are those who tout the "Tesla is making huge profits, they have nothing to worry about".

cratermoon 2y ago
Worth noting that DOGE's smash-and-grab on regulatory agencies is almost certain, given how chaotic and incompetent the actions are, to bump into Tesla's dependencies on federal money. We've already seen knock-on affects of the tariff war, which merit a single short mention in the article.
- jmye 2y ago
  In a rational world, I’d think you were right. In the weirdo, crony world we currently appear to live in, I expect that all subsidies to competitors will end and Tesla’s will remain untouched via fiat. There’s just no reason for an administration that already produced a state-run ad for the company to stop cutting them breaks.
  - cratermoon 2y ago
    In a competent world, they'd be able to determine the difference between ones that affect Tesla and ones that don't. I'm not sure we're in that world.
    - jmye 2y ago
      Ha, fair point - I suppose we could find out if they’ll get lucky anyway with a couple of basic ChatGPT prompts.

duxup 2y ago

It's not a great when the head of the company is there to announce that they are in some turn of phrase or another "not dead" or not close to it. Just having to talk about that seems bad...

JohnnyHerz 2y ago

i refuse read the biased news from CNN or FOX or MSNBC However, I've read countless Bloomberg articles on Tesla, and the company has significant competitive advantage over every automaker (Including BYD) when it comes to manufacturing and selling EV's in the US and elsewhere. If you are inclined to drive an EV, or own stock in an EV company, Tesla is still the gold standard.

sidibe 2y ago
It's like the gold standard in that it's something that used to be a big deal in the past.
cantrecallmypwd 2y ago
BYD has overtaken Tesla technically but isn't allowed in the US due to anti-competitive, pseudo-nativist protectionism (and also a lack of homologation which doesn't make financial sense because of the previous point.)
- JohnnyHerz 2y ago
  "homologation" ...thanks for teaching me a new word that nobody would understand if i ever used it. “Don't use a five-dollar word when a fifty-cent word will do.” ― Mark Twain

incomingpain 2y ago

Elon lied and said he had funding secured to take tesla private. SEC came in and got a settlement from tesla because it was a crime. This in late 2018 however changed the situation greatly at tesla. Shortly after this, yes the model Y and Cybertruck eventually happened but tesla really slowed down. Not well known, but essentially the usa government took control of tesla after this. The government even voided his compensation as being ceo. Essentially forcing him to work for free. If I look at Tesla's financials right now. 12.87% % of Shares Held by All Insider But "all insider" isn't just Elon himself. That's all the peoples at the top. You might imagine that Tesla is basically on autopilot now. Elon doesnt even own that much of tesla anymore. Doesnt really direct it much anymore. Far more interest in other private interests like spacex. Then you have political movements of domestic terrorists firebombing and vandalizing teslas that have nothing at all to do with elon or tesla. Tesla is in bad shape.

tenacious_tuna 2y ago
> firebombing and vandalizing teslas that have nothing at all to do with elon Can you elaborate on this? AFAIK it's entirely to do with Elon & his politics.
- incomingpain 2y ago
  The ownership of a tesla car after it's sold has nothing to do with elon. Any debt moves to someone else. Insurance is someone else. Elon and his financial interests are not involved at all. 0$ impact to elon. Moreover, if you're looking at politics. Republicans dont own teslas... it was democrats who pushed electric cars and tended to buy teslas. So it's democrats destroying other democrat's cars. What's very suspicious to me is that because of the firebombings, now republicans are buying teslas? lol what? did tesla realize they were politically walled in sales and have staged this to sell more? perhaps too conspiracy.
  - dc396 2y ago
    > Elon and his financial interests are not involved at all. 0$ impact to elon. This would only be true if Elon did not own any TSLA stock. > Moreover, if you're looking at politics. Republicans dont own teslas... it was democrats who pushed electric cars and tended to buy teslas. So it's democrats destroying other democrat's cars. From https://x.com/i/grok/share/vqgQXxcDQZN99MYy69UYCZKxz https://x.com/i/grok/share/vqgQXxcDQZN99MYy69UYCZKxz "However, by late 2023 (the start of the 2024 model year), that shifted dramatically—only 15% of Tesla buyers were Democrats, while Republicans rose slightly to 32%, and Independents jumped to 44%."

panick21_ 2y ago

I strongly moved out of Tesla when at the same time, Semi wasn't moving forward, Cybertruck seemed questionable and somehow they decided against Model 2 (affordable model). Not going for a mass market Model 2 was really where I lost interest. I never believed in the FSD beyond some additional revenue, but instead of focusing making a nice product, they just used it as a beta. I really hopped they wouldn't just do 'a truck' but would quickly build a single line to build a trucks, a large SUV and a van on one platform. But the Cybertruck hard-locks you into a very limited and unique construction. The fundamental technology of the Cybertruck seems pretty good to me, but I would want them to build multiple vehicles on that kind of platform. Between Pickups, Vans and large SUV, you would be hitting 3 huge markets. Another issue is that they used their good efficiency numbers to put smaller batteries into the car. This worked while other were not very efficient. But the competitors were willing to put a bit more battery into the car and thus ended up with sometimes better range. There were a bunch of other issues stacking up that I think they never really fully figured out. The biggest sin of all is Robotaxi. I just never fucking worked. Going all in into Robotaxi instead of, cars that can actually be sold is crazy. They somehow believe that Robotaxi will collapse the car market by 80%, and then of those left over 20% the Model 3 and Model Y can dominate that. Completely idiotic analysis in my opinion, from many different perspectives. I already pulled out most of it before Musk went full politics. And then I eliminated the position when Musk went all in on Trump. It was a good investment as it lasted.

duxup 2y ago
It does seem like Tesla hit a home run of sorts and sort of keeps swinging for the fences rather than trying to bat for a good average.
- panick21_ 2y ago
  Hyperfocus is one of Musk big strength. Like it was for Jobs. The power of saying no. Having a clear vision and focusing the company on that. When Tesla was working on 3/Y they had that. And it really worked. But as a car company after you have a car like that, you need to move into many niches large and small. And you can't have the overall company focus on any one project. You need a pipeline of new cars, new upgrades and so on. And then the thing they did seem to primarily focus on, FSD, didn't work nearly as well as Musk thought. He got obsessed with thinking AI was on an S-Curve upwards and it would just be solved fast.

m463 2y ago

I looked the other day, and I saw cybertrucks with discounts and free everything including supercharging for life and self-driving.

nunez 2y ago
Yup. Repeated 0% APR offers on their best selling vehicle (Model Y) and free supercharging. Apparently they are also throwing in CCS adapters that were $450 just last year. They wouldn't have done any of this last year.

mattAHuman 2y ago

[flagged]