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universalestimator.com I started experimenting and I think this builds out pretty neat estimations from jira tickets/other descriptions. When I was sitting in

universalestimator.com I started experimenting and I think this builds out pretty neat estimations from jira tickets/other descriptions. When I was sitting in the CTO role, I spent a ton of time talking with people about how long/short various projects would be. When I was a developer, I hated the estimation piece because it felt like it was both keeping me from building and was almost never done with enough context to get really accurate results. I was playing with the OpenAI API and I noticed that they can actually return a set of probability x next tokens and I thought that it might actually give you kind of cool ways to see the distribution of potential outcomes. (You can see an example here: https://universalestimator.com/estimates/c68db45b-7622-4bab-8b09-18a407653b27 https://universalestimator.com/estimates/c68db45b-7622-4bab-... that looks at a detailed ticket for implementing filtering on a dashboard.) Let me know if you have any feedback, it's free with the promo code TYHN. If you run into any issues, please send me an email at earl@unbrandedsoftware.com

sameline 1y ago
Cool idea! Does it take your team’s prior estimations into account to improve future estimates?
- estsauver 1y ago
  No, but it's on my roadmap! https://feedback.universalestimator.com/p/calibrationnorms-for-teams https://feedback.universalestimator.com/p/calibrationnorms-f... Right now, it asks you some follow up questions and assumes you're a medium sized org, but I'd like to start to move that into configuration and do some sort of time/bayesian expiration of memory/information as part of the questions it asks. I think a ton of the variance between teams is probably captured by some version of a few calibration questions, aka: - How large is the org? - What region is your org based in? - How long does it take to get the smallest possible change into production?

sameline 1y ago

Cool idea! Does it take your team’s prior estimations into account to improve future estimates?

estsauver 1y ago
No, but it's on my roadmap! https://feedback.universalestimator.com/p/calibrationnorms-for-teams https://feedback.universalestimator.com/p/calibrationnorms-f... Right now, it asks you some follow up questions and assumes you're a medium sized org, but I'd like to start to move that into configuration and do some sort of time/bayesian expiration of memory/information as part of the questions it asks. I think a ton of the variance between teams is probably captured by some version of a few calibration questions, aka: - How large is the org? - What region is your org based in? - How long does it take to get the smallest possible change into production?