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No reputable source has China gdp > US gdp. World Bank, IMF, UN all have it at something like $30T US, $20T China.
by danielmarkbruce 1y ago
No reputable source has China gdp > US gdp. World Bank, IMF, UN all have it at something like $30T US, $20T China.
- tock 1y agoTrue but its only a matter of this at this rate.
- wqaatwt 1y agoIs it? China unlike US has a declining population. Also it takes a while to catch up even if you’re growing at 5% and your opponent at 3% when the starting base is much lower. Of course this might be entirely moot since US is in the process of committing economic suicide for no apparent reason.
- tock 1y agoI think its going to happen. We keep underestimating China. US manufacturing is in the gutter. And it certainly doesn't help that we keep deporting our best minds back to China. They already have 5x the US population. They have a lot of room to grow still.
- wqaatwt 1y ago> US manufacturing is in the gutter That had little effect on GDP growth, though. It’s not like the gap has been narrowed that much in the last 15 years: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN-US&start=2010 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?location... It’s not that long until China’s demographic issues will start having a huge impact. Unless something significant changes it’s not inconceivable if China never catches up. Obviously such longterm projections are semi meaningless but China will likely have less than 500 million people by the end of the century.
- rapsey 1y agoChina undercounts GDP by a lot and keeps their currency artificially low.
- olalonde 1y agoGDP (PPP) which is arguably a more meaningful metric for comparison. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
- ben_w 1y agoFor a lot of things, yes; but — genuine Q because I'm not economically trained — on the question of dollar dominance in international trade… is PPP genuinely more relevant than nominal? I mean, this does seem to be a question about the currency itself? Or should the question draw the boundary differently, and be asking about the size of the dollar economy rather than the US economy, with e.g. all international trade that is denominated in USD being counted?
- olalonde 1y agoSuppose China and the U.S. each produce 10 tons of steel. GDP PPP would consider both economies equally sized (and they arguably are), but nominal GDP would favor the U.S. because steel costs more there. GDP PPP is more useful if you want to compare standards of living or consider consider a country's ability to sustain a war for example.
- ben_w 1y agoThat's the positive argument for PPP that I'm already aware of. Thing is, to quote @YZF a way up chain: "There is no quick decoupling from the USD." — I'm curious about the dollar itself in this case, rather than about the goods.
- audunw 1y agoNo, it’s not. It’s just a different perspective. In some aspects it does reveals real economic power, but in other ways it can vastly exaggerate a country’s economic power. Having hundreds of millions of poor near-subsistence farmers will add quite a lot to a country’s GDP (PPP), but does not make that country more powerful on the international stage. I’d argue that PPP is more misleading than meaningful.you Like, you can get an apartment built really cheaply in China. Yes, your money goes further there. But there’s also a much higher risk that the building is very low quality and will fall apart in a short time. And what’s more, you’re not actually buying and fully owning it. The land is leased from the government