4 ms·
On what time horizon does this happen? My estimation is that it is one or two generations away. Ray Kurzweil thinks about the timing more than me, has a prett
by ArtTimeInvestor 1y ago
On what time horizon does this happen?
My estimation is that it is one or two generations away.
Ray Kurzweil thinks about the timing more than me, has a pretty good track record in terms of his predictions, and estimates it to happen around 2045.
trade is always gonna have value
We don't trade much with apes and birds, do we? And we don't let them invest in our stock markets. We also don't pay them dividends for the land we took from them.
As soon as one country achieves way higher intelligence than the rest of the world, things might change in a fundamental way.
- myrmidon 1y agoI personally don't buy the whole singularity argument at all; I see no good examples for interesting intellectual tasks that scale well with number of people thrown at it, and I see the whole AI thing developing exactly the same way-- exponentially increasing demands on ressources for smaller and smaller gains in utility, without any run-away self improvement at all. > We don't trade much with apes and birds, do we? And we don't let them invest in our stock markets. We also don't pay them dividends for the land we took from them. This sounds immensely misanthropic to me; if we hit a scenario like that, where a majority of US "entities" (?) share this kind of outlook on other humans, I strongly doubt that you (or I) are gonna be part of the "we" in that world, and I'd consider this more of a "may god have mercy" worstcase for our species than anything to be helped along.
- ArtTimeInvestor 1y agosmaller and smaller gains in utility What type of work do you think will still require humans in 50 years? sounds immensely misanthropic I don't think closing our eyes will prevent technological progress.