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Norway thinks they "own" some percentage of Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, etc. But is it really like that? If, in the future, Norway will not deliver enough value t
by ArtTimeInvestor 1y ago
Norway thinks they "own" some percentage of Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, etc. But is it really like that?
If, in the future, Norway will not deliver enough value to the USA in some way to justify that the USA pays them part of the value generated by those companies, why would the USA continue to do so? Wouldn't the USA just make their companies stop paying dividends to Norway or void Norway's shares in some way? There are probably many ways in which a country can prevent value flowing to foreign investors.
You might say "That would lead to a decline of foreign investments in the USA". True. But does the USA of the future care? If the "United States of AI" produces everything themselves, they might not care. They have a stronghold on ASML, TSMC is starting to build companies in the USA, they have Nvidia and all other GPU/TPU manufacturers, and they are investing big time into energy production.
What can keep the USA from becoming completely superior via AI and then stopping to deliver anything to the rest of the world?
- ksec 1y ago>Wouldn't the USA just make their companies stop paying dividends to Norway or flat out void Norway's shares? What are you on about?
- digitalWestie 1y ago... wat
- WinstonSmith84 1y agoSounds like communism to me
- mgeorge001 1y agojeez...lay off the toilet bowl crack
- nottorp 1y agoGood idea. If the US voids foreign property rights, then the rest of the world will have no problem with voiding US property rights in retaliation. Including, for example, the cash that a lot of US companies hold in Ireland to avoid US taxes? :) And ... any claim to ASML shares? ASML is a Dutch company in case your LLM forgot...
- ArtTimeInvestor 1y agoThe cash held in foreign countries is only worth something if those countries produce something of value. If the US keeps outpacing Europe in terms of production of real stuff, there is nothing to get in Europe for the US: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=EU-US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?location... As for ASML, read up on the ownership structure and why ASML for example cannot sell up-to-date tech to China. ASML is actively expanding and operating production and R&D facilities in the United States. So the USA will not be dependent on the Netherlands for photolithography.
- nottorp 1y ago> read up on the ownership structure The ownership structure only holds if the US respects other ownership structures, eh? > If the US keeps outpacing Europe in terms of production of real stuff What real stuff, social networking?
- ArtTimeInvestor 1y agoThe ownership structure only holds if the US respects other ownership structures, eh? No, because ASML is building production facilities on US soil. What real stuff, social networking? Name a thing that the USA will not be able to produce themselves. The USA is pushing hard for complete production independence.
- sofixa 1y ago> Name a thing that the USA will not be able to produce themselves Smartphones. Computers. Servers, switches. Anything that relies on an advanced chip. Anything that needs cobalt or lithium or coffee or cocoa or any other material not found in sufficient numbers or quality in the US. Ships. Hell, planes while we're at it (Boeing suck ass). Anything that needs to be affordable (like clothing).
- nottorp 1y ago> No, because ASML is building production facilities on US soil. You mean there are news about ASML trying to build production facilities on US soil?
- snickmy 1y agothat's not exactly how public companies work :)
- bobxmax 1y agoYou seem to be under the Trumpic-delusion that the US exists in a bubble and all of it's successes are it's own. If the US decides to do that, the US dollar will be removed as the global standard and the entire planet will flock to China who will, in very short measure, annihilate the Americans.
- ArtTimeInvestor 1y agoAnnihilate how?
- bobxmax 1y agoEconomically, militarily, whatever is necessary in this new world where the US becomes a pariah state.
- ArtTimeInvestor 1y agoAs soon as one country reaches AI superiority, no other country can compete in these areas. We humans are not afraid that apes might annihilate us, right? Even though we have became a pariah species that puts the others into zoos.
- bobxmax 1y agoI like that you think AI superiority is some binary moment in time
- bryanrasmussen 1y agoAI tastes like crap. Using AI instead of lithium inside batteries shows disappointing energy generation. Other examples easily generated via AI if you want to spend the time.
- myrmidon 1y agoYou do have a good core point, which is that foreign assets can often just be taken from you in a crisis (even if you're a state actor-- see Russia for a recent example). But things are not as simple as you portrait them. Lets assume that all of Norway suddenly became a country full of completely useless rent-seekers living off of their wealth fund. Just nationalizing their US assets does not just mean that you are unlikely to see any assets that you hold in Norway ever again (or any exports of value, as you correctly identified). It also means that every other nation is gonna become very "careful" in dealing with you, by reducing trade/cooperation/investments, because holding any US asset has suddenly become a liability (because it could be seized). But you don't have to take my word-- just look at which nations do this kind of "nationalizing foreign-held assets on a whim", and note where you would put them on a "failed-state-cleptocracy" leaderboard-- you will note that the correlation is quite high, and getting the US high on that leaderboard seems not very desirable to me.
- ArtTimeInvestor 1y agoYou ommitted the part where the US becomes self-sufficient via AI (no more need for foreign labour) and does not care whether other nations become "careful" in dealing with them.
- lifestyleguru 1y agoIn this scenario domestic non-oligarch population is equally obsolete. Oligarchs from definition are permille of total population.
- myrmidon 1y agoOn what time horizon does this happen? Because this sounds like a wishful utopia to me. I would expect current progress in AI to deliver the equivalent of a veritable army of consultants for very cheap, available to basically everyone within a decade or so. But that is not gonna make foreign labor worthless (or labor in general-- maybe a lot of whitecollar/creative work, we'll see). But trade is always gonna have value until the earth is perfectly homogenous, simply because it allows you to get value from both being better at things than other nations (=> export) AND from being worse (=> import). If you are gonna go full autarky, you are going to be left behind by countries that don't, because all the spread-out efforts will struggle to compete with nations that put actual focus on things, and in-housing everything will drive up costs and prices tremendously.
- npc_anon 1y agoThe "United States of AI" cannot produce everything themselves. The USA is the biggest importer in the world. Your 100% independence scenario is a fantasy. Also, when you disown property owners and default on debt, this doesn't lead to just less investments, it means a total collapse of the dollar. The US will not have absolute AI dominance in a case of full self-isolation because then their current ways to suppress rivals (sanctions, trade blocks) will fall apart. And when that happens, China wins.
- ArtTimeInvestor 1y agoThe "United States of AI" cannot produce everything themselves. Name something that is impossible to produce in the USA.