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From TFA: “lost 0.6%, or $40 billion, in the first three months of the year” Sure, my (scrappy) portfolio went down by more than that percentually, so it looks

From TFA: “lost 0.6%, or $40 billion, in the first three months of the year” Sure, my (scrappy) portfolio went down by more than that percentually, so it looks like this Norwegian fund didn’t even get hit that hard.

ak_111 2y ago
Good point, but I suggest if you think of this fund as basically the GDP of Norway than just another hedge fund, losing 0.6% in a quarter is slightly bigger deal than you make it. Like a G7 country's GDP contracting 2% in a year.
- boxed 2y ago
  Isn't that what is happening with a lot of countries right now though?
  - consp 2y ago
    The only negative one is Mexico. GDP projections by the IMF [1] still are all in the green. The fastest droppers relative to size are China, Russia and the US but they still are net positive. (for now, next week who knows) [1] https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/wo...
    - loloquwowndueo 2y ago
      Note the Mexican government has expressed skepticism about the IMF’s projections : https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexicos-president-says-she-disagrees-with-imfs-negative-growth-forecast-2025-04-22/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexicos-president-say... And I for one tend to agree, I hardly think Mexico’s GDP will experience growth lower than Canada’s and Canada is projected to have some growth. Compare media and reports from both countries and you’ll see a lot more worry and impact in Canada than in Mexico.
- IanCal 2y ago
  But it's nothing like GDP.
- nabla9 2y ago
  Well no. GDP is an output variable, Assets are resource variable. If you own a forest. GDP is how much you cut the forest. Forest growth is growth of the assets. Norwegian wealth fund has similar time horizon as someone growing forest, several decades. Fluctuation in 6 quarters barely registers at the end.

ak_111 2y ago

Good point, but I suggest if you think of this fund as basically the GDP of Norway than just another hedge fund, losing 0.6% in a quarter is slightly bigger deal than you make it. Like a G7 country's GDP contracting 2% in a year.

boxed 2y ago
Isn't that what is happening with a lot of countries right now though?
- consp 2y ago
  The only negative one is Mexico. GDP projections by the IMF [1] still are all in the green. The fastest droppers relative to size are China, Russia and the US but they still are net positive. (for now, next week who knows) [1] https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/wo...
  - loloquwowndueo 2y ago
    Note the Mexican government has expressed skepticism about the IMF’s projections : https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexicos-president-says-she-disagrees-with-imfs-negative-growth-forecast-2025-04-22/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexicos-president-say... And I for one tend to agree, I hardly think Mexico’s GDP will experience growth lower than Canada’s and Canada is projected to have some growth. Compare media and reports from both countries and you’ll see a lot more worry and impact in Canada than in Mexico.
IanCal 2y ago
But it's nothing like GDP.
nabla9 2y ago
Well no. GDP is an output variable, Assets are resource variable. If you own a forest. GDP is how much you cut the forest. Forest growth is growth of the assets. Norwegian wealth fund has similar time horizon as someone growing forest, several decades. Fluctuation in 6 quarters barely registers at the end.