3 ms·
Serious question: has such a calculation ever successfully predicted a technology trend? How much should we believe it and to what accuracy?
by staunton 1y ago
Serious question: has such a calculation ever successfully predicted a technology trend? How much should we believe it and to what accuracy?
- genewitch 1y agoWell, i did this a few times between 2011-2016 and predicted SSD/NVME and spindle sizes through this year pretty accurately. Moore's "law" said the graph has a maximum angle, but i think most people think it implies a minimum angle. the graph i plotted is a lot less steep than Moore's law ought to imply, but these are all desktop CPUs - workstation/server CPUs are over 100 billion transistors already and are well within the constraints of Moore's law.