4 ms·
Eh, it's a reasonable prior. The timeline is "it will never happen" until the leap forward happens that makes it "within 2 years." Basically the same as air fli
by Spivak 2y ago
Eh, it's a reasonable prior. The timeline is "it will never happen" until the leap forward happens that makes it "within 2 years." Basically the same as air flight.
You can't know when the leap will happen so it's basically picking a year that seems far enough off to be pretty darn sure.
- Unit327 2y agoIt doesn't require a leap forward, we could put boots on the ground with 1990s tech.
- red-iron-pine 2y agoaye we could have. and they'd all be long dead on the surface of Mars by this point. getting them there isn't enough.
- Unit327 2y agoKeeping them alive and returning them doesn't require "a leap" which is the central point of OP I am disagreeing with. We have all the technology, material science etc to do it. Sure, it requires some research, engineering and a crapload of investment, but it doesn't require anything that is currently "science fiction".