You may have short-term volatility but a stable trend. Average monthly year-to-year tempuratures are more predictable than the dailies a month from now. But yea

You may have short-term volatility but a stable trend. Average monthly year-to-year tempuratures are more predictable than the dailies a month from now. But yeah: Any weather forecast for the next few centuries will probably not fare much better than guesswork on average. There's still some severe selective bias going on with what matters, what probabilities are discounted as insignificant, assumptions on cause and effect, etc.