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> On the other hand, companies seem seldom run by logic and empirical data these days. Yeah, this is the real worry. The vast majority of the decision-making

> On the other hand, companies seem seldom run by logic and empirical data these days. Yeah, this is the real worry. The vast majority of the decision-making people in business are not at all trying to actually decide what is good for the business, they are trying to decide what is good for themselves. As such it's not "can we effectively and efficiently fire people and replace them with robots and expect the business to continue to exist in a year". Instead it's more like "Can I get a bonus next quarter if I cut costs this quarter?". People who are sitting around very rationally trying to discuss how much AI is improving or how fast are missing the point I'd say. Powerful people don't think in those kind of terms as far as the ground truth of things. Usually they are more interested in controlling the conversation and seizing initiative. They are happy to blow up the companies / countries / industries they operate in and depend on, because they can always find a way to profit from the chaos.

gymbeaux 1y ago
Short-term thinking is a big problem. I'm not sure why the stock market continues to grow despite short-term thinking absolutely destroying stalwarts like Boeing, GE, Intel, et al. I suppose part of the stock market's perceived-success over the last 20 years is that short-term thinking- in the form of buybacks. I'll never forget that United Airlines ($UAL) needed that huge government bailout in 2020 when COVID hit because they had just spent ALL of their cash on stock buybacks. Actually, not to go on a tangent, the airline industry has decades and decades of proof that the U.S. government won't let them fail. United basically had the United States' blessing to blow all their cash reserves. Another part of the equation are apps like Robinhood that have opened the floodgates and enabled the lower and middle classes to invest in the stock market (however recklessly). When you consider the stock market is just one big Ponzi scheme (the newcomers support the old-timers with fresh capital and enable them to retire) you see it as less of a "no-brainer, guaranteed road to wealth" and more of the hunting ground that it really is- where the 1% steal from the rest of us using "tools" like market volatility to scare people into selling at a loss. Fun fact: Robinhood now offers IRAs, and allows you to TRADE OPTIONS with your IRA. This should 1000% be illegal.
saratogacx 1y ago
When I look at the situation with AI I think that the insistence that it is in every product under the sun is also going to turn into one of the drivers slowing it's adoption as a method to replace people. When something is sold as a magic tool that a decision maker is able to not be directly exposed to, they can go and trust the hype. Low-code/No-code were magic tools to make line workers into software Devs. With LLM's and "AI all the things" being put in front of everyone's faces even decision makers are exposed to the wrinkles and can draw on their own experience of "would I hire Gemini or Co=pilot, the thing that struggles to follow seemingly simple instructions, to run my business" you start getting more speculation into the mystical powers of this human replacement machine. With an opinion on AI being useful for low-risk activities but needing heavy supervision for stuff that matters, the calculous changes when considering handing that system the responsibility to deliver your paycheck.

gymbeaux 1y ago

Short-term thinking is a big problem. I'm not sure why the stock market continues to grow despite short-term thinking absolutely destroying stalwarts like Boeing, GE, Intel, et al. I suppose part of the stock market's perceived-success over the last 20 years is that short-term thinking- in the form of buybacks. I'll never forget that United Airlines ($UAL) needed that huge government bailout in 2020 when COVID hit because they had just spent ALL of their cash on stock buybacks. Actually, not to go on a tangent, the airline industry has decades and decades of proof that the U.S. government won't let them fail. United basically had the United States' blessing to blow all their cash reserves. Another part of the equation are apps like Robinhood that have opened the floodgates and enabled the lower and middle classes to invest in the stock market (however recklessly). When you consider the stock market is just one big Ponzi scheme (the newcomers support the old-timers with fresh capital and enable them to retire) you see it as less of a "no-brainer, guaranteed road to wealth" and more of the hunting ground that it really is- where the 1% steal from the rest of us using "tools" like market volatility to scare people into selling at a loss. Fun fact: Robinhood now offers IRAs, and allows you to TRADE OPTIONS with your IRA. This should 1000% be illegal.

saratogacx 1y ago

When I look at the situation with AI I think that the insistence that it is in every product under the sun is also going to turn into one of the drivers slowing it's adoption as a method to replace people. When something is sold as a magic tool that a decision maker is able to not be directly exposed to, they can go and trust the hype. Low-code/No-code were magic tools to make line workers into software Devs. With LLM's and "AI all the things" being put in front of everyone's faces even decision makers are exposed to the wrinkles and can draw on their own experience of "would I hire Gemini or Co=pilot, the thing that struggles to follow seemingly simple instructions, to run my business" you start getting more speculation into the mystical powers of this human replacement machine. With an opinion on AI being useful for low-risk activities but needing heavy supervision for stuff that matters, the calculous changes when considering handing that system the responsibility to deliver your paycheck.