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I really think the current best lane to be in in software is self-employed/startup. We’ve been in a recession for like a year, and will have another year before

I really think the current best lane to be in in software is self-employed/startup. We’ve been in a recession for like a year, and will have another year before capital frees up. The big players and startups are dying from entropy and bad UX, and in 2 years there will be money on the table for the thing that replaces whatever shitty software you’re currently using.

OccamsMirror 1y ago
What makes you think that capital will free up in a years time? I only ask because this feels like the start of a winter to me. Not one that's approaching an end.
- gymbeaux 1y ago
  Donald Trump has been complaining about the Fed's interest rate being too high going all the way back to his first term (perhaps even earlier). It's no secret that he wants Powell to drop rates to zero or near-zero. The "glass half-full" among us will tell you this tariff stuff is all part of Trump's 3D-chess plan to refinance U.S. debt to a lower rate. Personally I doubt it. Everything he does is for himself, and it's only coincidence that sabotaging the economy to get rates to zero could benefit the National Debt. Anyway, the tech hiring spree we saw in 2020-2021 was fed by rates being at or near zero. If money is free or nearly-free to borrow, why not hire everyone you can and try to grow your company as quickly as possible? So in theory, bringing rates back down will ease companies' recession fears - not necessarily because they would think a recession isn't coming - no, I'm sure we will all still be expecting a recession "any day" - but with money very cheap or free to borrow, there's no risk to hiring people, starting new projects - because when shit hits the fan, there's negligible additional financial burden from that hiring/starting of new projects. Maybe 2% interest on the debt taken out to pay those people and start those projects. That might as well be 0% to a company, especially one that is FAANG-sized. I've been saying for years now that the Fed dropping rates to 0% would solve the tech job market woes, and I still believe that. BUT- I make no guarantees against terrible side effects of dropping the interest rate back to zero. I think it will revive the tech job market... and cause many other, bad side-effects (including heightened inflation). Everyone is hot to trot for AI, but these companies (even FAANG) are working at partial-capacity for developing AI-driven products because they're afraid to hire right before a recession. If they could hire and otherwise expand "for free" I think we would see another 2020-2021 from a tech hiring perspective. Things would be stupid again. You'd have more of the "I work at Google and do absolutely nothing", more instances of senior engineers pulling $250k base salaries... It would be a great time for SWEs, but probably at the detriment to everyone else via things like inflation.
gymbeaux 1y ago
It’s hard to say how long we’ve been in a “recession”. My personal recession has been going since 2023. That’s when I last held a full-time job. I’ve been “1099 for table scraps for the last 2 years, and it doesn’t show signs of stopping. So in that sense, absolutely self-employed has been the route for me that has yielded income.

OccamsMirror 1y ago

What makes you think that capital will free up in a years time? I only ask because this feels like the start of a winter to me. Not one that's approaching an end.

gymbeaux 1y ago
Donald Trump has been complaining about the Fed's interest rate being too high going all the way back to his first term (perhaps even earlier). It's no secret that he wants Powell to drop rates to zero or near-zero. The "glass half-full" among us will tell you this tariff stuff is all part of Trump's 3D-chess plan to refinance U.S. debt to a lower rate. Personally I doubt it. Everything he does is for himself, and it's only coincidence that sabotaging the economy to get rates to zero could benefit the National Debt. Anyway, the tech hiring spree we saw in 2020-2021 was fed by rates being at or near zero. If money is free or nearly-free to borrow, why not hire everyone you can and try to grow your company as quickly as possible? So in theory, bringing rates back down will ease companies' recession fears - not necessarily because they would think a recession isn't coming - no, I'm sure we will all still be expecting a recession "any day" - but with money very cheap or free to borrow, there's no risk to hiring people, starting new projects - because when shit hits the fan, there's negligible additional financial burden from that hiring/starting of new projects. Maybe 2% interest on the debt taken out to pay those people and start those projects. That might as well be 0% to a company, especially one that is FAANG-sized. I've been saying for years now that the Fed dropping rates to 0% would solve the tech job market woes, and I still believe that. BUT- I make no guarantees against terrible side effects of dropping the interest rate back to zero. I think it will revive the tech job market... and cause many other, bad side-effects (including heightened inflation). Everyone is hot to trot for AI, but these companies (even FAANG) are working at partial-capacity for developing AI-driven products because they're afraid to hire right before a recession. If they could hire and otherwise expand "for free" I think we would see another 2020-2021 from a tech hiring perspective. Things would be stupid again. You'd have more of the "I work at Google and do absolutely nothing", more instances of senior engineers pulling $250k base salaries... It would be a great time for SWEs, but probably at the detriment to everyone else via things like inflation.

gymbeaux 1y ago

It’s hard to say how long we’ve been in a “recession”. My personal recession has been going since 2023. That’s when I last held a full-time job. I’ve been “1099 for table scraps for the last 2 years, and it doesn’t show signs of stopping. So in that sense, absolutely self-employed has been the route for me that has yielded income.