5 ms·

Tesla Q1 2025 Update [pdf]

61 points by mfiguiere 2y ago

nixass 2y ago
Believe it or not stock goes up
- almog 2y ago
  The cult leader announcement that he'll be back at Tesla in a month did it (which is really no news given that his contract is limited to 130 days without congress approval). Also Trump's comments about not having intentions to dismiss J. Powell + trying to save face on tariffs cave (which affected ES futures as a whole, not anything specific to Tesla).
  - aaomidi 2y ago
    Trump announcing he’s caving on the tariffs the same day as earnings. Not a coincidence. Given he also acted as a salesperson for Tesla.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
chollida1 2y ago
Numbers: - Q1 EPS $0.27, Est $0.43, wow, hard to remember a fumble this large for such a big company. This is a big canary in the coal mine for US markets earning season, things are going to get really ugly. - Q1 Revenue $19.3B, Est $21.7B - Model 3 deliveries down 12%, - Model Y deliveries down 12% - CyberTruck deliveries down 24% - production of Model 3 down 16% - production of Model Y down 18% - regulatory credits $600M for Q1 - powerwall passed 1GW in deliveries for the first time, that's positive - Q1 gross automotive margins are at 12.5% Notes: - could Elon announcing he's leaving TSLA be the biggest single personal catalyst for a companies stock price, since Balmer announced he was leaving MSFT? - They are providing guidance that tariffs will affect the power business more than the automotive business, which makes sense as North America makes up 5% of global Lithium-ion battery production and China makes up 84% of it - Cybercab status is now "in construction" - dropped their old sales guidance - dropped their prediction that sales would grow on the year - nothing in the deck about Elon staying on, but they did add a new risk about the changing political climate may affect their sales - New Texas Lithium refining and cathode production plants are on track to start production next year Watch For: - Does Elon provide a hard target for when he starts working again? - Energy storage has been growing, but batteries will be hit hard by tariffs, rare earths, does that hit energy storage yet? or do we see a pump from pulling forward demand to beat tariffs? - Any tie ins with xAI? Elon seems to be throwing everything he can to pump up xAI's valuation, he clearly has some loans now tied to its price - Tone of earnings call, Typically earnings calls have been essentially blowing smoke up Elon's ass with no tough questions asked/answered at all. Even one hard question would indicate that wall street has shifted from the Elon can do no wrong mindset - Will TSLA blame tariffs for bad sales like other companies have? - What will they say about a new Tesla models? - China sales will dominate what the market thinks, Therefor Tesla will almost certainly not break them out,
- neogodless 2y ago
  Note that all those delivery numbers are year-over-year, but if you look at the growth through 2024, the drop off in this quarter is more stark. For example: Q4-2024 495,570 Q1-2025 336,681 That's down 32%.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - billconan 2y ago
    Should publicly traded companies be required to notify investors if their financial results are expected to deviate significantly from previous guidance or market expectations? I recall NVIDIA issuing a preliminary announcement before one of their earnings reports a while ago.
    - lgiordano_notte 2y ago
      they’re supposed to if the deviation is material. that’s what “pre-announcements” are for. but it’s a gray area unless it’s something truly drastic. a 32% QoQ drop probably qualifies, but companies sometimes gamble that the full context will soften the blow on earnings day.
      - chollida1 2y ago
        This is incorrect under most cases. A company is not required to update any previously given guidance and can just let their quarterly reporting speak for itself. The reason why most companies give guidance, which they re not required to and many companies don't, is to manage wall streets expectations. So given that, you can see why they'd update their guidance for material changes, though under REG FD they are not required to update guidance once they learn its incorrect. They do modify their guidance so as to not surprise analysts on earnings releases and again as a way to manage expectations. But as to the question asked, no they are not required to modify their guidance, even if they learn its not true.
- 2y ago
empath75 2y ago
If Tesla was trading on actual fundamentals, it'd be about $30/share. It's got like a 200x+ P/E ratio, and it's no longer a growth stock.
- actionfromafar 2y ago
  Right now it's trading on being a state backed company.
  - rsynnott 2y ago
    Ooh, a state backed company! It could be almost as successful as British Leyland, or Lada! Like, historically, "state backed car company" tends to mean "struggles to keep existing while protectionist policies last, then implodes messily once they lapse."
    - actionfromafar 2y ago
      Those imploded when their respective host countries were declining has-been Empires. The US works hard at joining that category, so when/if that happens, we can see Tesla join the British Leyland fate.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - rsynnott 2y ago
        British Leyland was _created_ well after the death of the empire.
nunez 2y ago
woof; huge drop all across the board. definitely looks like a bloodbath to me. anecdotally, two people, who don't have EVs, reacted negatively to me renting a model 3 recently. this was definitely not the case last year. tesla has a reputation problem. they need to admit it. i agree with the hivemind that this is 100% the reason behind the massive drop. given that they still have the best EVs on the market with the best EV supercharging network on the market, this is the only possible reason.
- bl4kers 2y ago
  > given that they still have the best EVs on the market Nah. The build quality continues to disappoint and the number of recalls is high. Chinese manufacturers have been leading the way for a while now. They're just banned from major countries.
- cosmicgadget 2y ago
  Share price is more about trajectory than position. Tesla has stagnated, mucking around with halo models and abandoning its affordable vehicle plans. The market in China has dead ended and any progress in autonomy is dependent on regulatory approval. The company is currently fourth banana for its 'visionary' CEO, behind DOGE, Twitter, and SpaceX. It's more than a matter of people disapproving of his antics.
- NoPicklez 2y ago
  I don't know if its just the US, but it certainly seems like Elon's reputation is having a bigger impact on Tesla drivers in the US. Here in Australia the sentiment is that they're just Tesla cars, people don't care its tied to Elon "or some guy that did a salute". Does certainly seem to be a hivemind.
  - aaomidi 2y ago
    That probably says more about Australian society than it does about Tesla.
    - NoPicklez 2y ago
Thrymr 2y ago
Robotaxis are "scheduled for volume production starting in 2026". Sure. "On stage at the Tesla Autonomy Investor Day in Palo Alto, California, Musk boasted about Tesla’s self-driving technology, predicting his company will have more than 1 million robotaxis on the road next year." CNBC, 2019 [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/elon-musk-any-other-car-than-a-tesla-in-3-years-like-owning-a-horse.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/elon-musk-any-other-car-than...
- decimalenough 2y ago
  Elon's original claim was that all FSD-capable Teslas would also be robotaxis. Tesla did, in fact, break the 1M car mark in 2020, but it's now 2025 and FSD remains buggy and unsafe even with a driver at the wheel.
NoPicklez 2y ago
It's interesting the rationale within the update as to the decline, with no mention of political/reputational linkages. Obviously that is less tangible than those listed but it is interesting and of course unfavorable to disclose. When the auditors come in EOFY they look at the various accounts and their opening/closing balances year on year and look to explain at a high level what has impacted the increase and decrease of those accounts in the current FY. They will certainly pick up on reputational and political reasons.
- neogodless 2y ago
  Well it's implied on page 3: > This dynamic, along with changing political sentiment, could have a meaningful impact on demand for our products in the near-term.

61 points by mfiguiere 2y ago

nixass 2y ago

Believe it or not stock goes up

almog 2y ago
The cult leader announcement that he'll be back at Tesla in a month did it (which is really no news given that his contract is limited to 130 days without congress approval). Also Trump's comments about not having intentions to dismiss J. Powell + trying to save face on tariffs cave (which affected ES futures as a whole, not anything specific to Tesla).
- aaomidi 2y ago
  Trump announcing he’s caving on the tariffs the same day as earnings. Not a coincidence. Given he also acted as a salesperson for Tesla.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

chollida1 2y ago

Numbers: - Q1 EPS $0.27, Est $0.43, wow, hard to remember a fumble this large for such a big company. This is a big canary in the coal mine for US markets earning season, things are going to get really ugly. - Q1 Revenue $19.3B, Est $21.7B - Model 3 deliveries down 12%, - Model Y deliveries down 12% - CyberTruck deliveries down 24% - production of Model 3 down 16% - production of Model Y down 18% - regulatory credits $600M for Q1 - powerwall passed 1GW in deliveries for the first time, that's positive - Q1 gross automotive margins are at 12.5% Notes: - could Elon announcing he's leaving TSLA be the biggest single personal catalyst for a companies stock price, since Balmer announced he was leaving MSFT? - They are providing guidance that tariffs will affect the power business more than the automotive business, which makes sense as North America makes up 5% of global Lithium-ion battery production and China makes up 84% of it - Cybercab status is now "in construction" - dropped their old sales guidance - dropped their prediction that sales would grow on the year - nothing in the deck about Elon staying on, but they did add a new risk about the changing political climate may affect their sales - New Texas Lithium refining and cathode production plants are on track to start production next year Watch For: - Does Elon provide a hard target for when he starts working again? - Energy storage has been growing, but batteries will be hit hard by tariffs, rare earths, does that hit energy storage yet? or do we see a pump from pulling forward demand to beat tariffs? - Any tie ins with xAI? Elon seems to be throwing everything he can to pump up xAI's valuation, he clearly has some loans now tied to its price - Tone of earnings call, Typically earnings calls have been essentially blowing smoke up Elon's ass with no tough questions asked/answered at all. Even one hard question would indicate that wall street has shifted from the Elon can do no wrong mindset - Will TSLA blame tariffs for bad sales like other companies have? - What will they say about a new Tesla models? - China sales will dominate what the market thinks, Therefor Tesla will almost certainly not break them out,

neogodless 2y ago
Note that all those delivery numbers are year-over-year, but if you look at the growth through 2024, the drop off in this quarter is more stark. For example: Q4-2024 495,570 Q1-2025 336,681 That's down 32%.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- billconan 2y ago
  Should publicly traded companies be required to notify investors if their financial results are expected to deviate significantly from previous guidance or market expectations? I recall NVIDIA issuing a preliminary announcement before one of their earnings reports a while ago.
  - lgiordano_notte 2y ago
    they’re supposed to if the deviation is material. that’s what “pre-announcements” are for. but it’s a gray area unless it’s something truly drastic. a 32% QoQ drop probably qualifies, but companies sometimes gamble that the full context will soften the blow on earnings day.
    - chollida1 2y ago
      This is incorrect under most cases. A company is not required to update any previously given guidance and can just let their quarterly reporting speak for itself. The reason why most companies give guidance, which they re not required to and many companies don't, is to manage wall streets expectations. So given that, you can see why they'd update their guidance for material changes, though under REG FD they are not required to update guidance once they learn its incorrect. They do modify their guidance so as to not surprise analysts on earnings releases and again as a way to manage expectations. But as to the question asked, no they are not required to modify their guidance, even if they learn its not true.
2y ago

empath75 2y ago

If Tesla was trading on actual fundamentals, it'd be about $30/share. It's got like a 200x+ P/E ratio, and it's no longer a growth stock.

actionfromafar 2y ago
Right now it's trading on being a state backed company.
- rsynnott 2y ago
  Ooh, a state backed company! It could be almost as successful as British Leyland, or Lada! Like, historically, "state backed car company" tends to mean "struggles to keep existing while protectionist policies last, then implodes messily once they lapse."
  - actionfromafar 2y ago
    Those imploded when their respective host countries were declining has-been Empires. The US works hard at joining that category, so when/if that happens, we can see Tesla join the British Leyland fate.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - rsynnott 2y ago
      British Leyland was _created_ well after the death of the empire.

nunez 2y ago

woof; huge drop all across the board. definitely looks like a bloodbath to me. anecdotally, two people, who don't have EVs, reacted negatively to me renting a model 3 recently. this was definitely not the case last year. tesla has a reputation problem. they need to admit it. i agree with the hivemind that this is 100% the reason behind the massive drop. given that they still have the best EVs on the market with the best EV supercharging network on the market, this is the only possible reason.

bl4kers 2y ago
> given that they still have the best EVs on the market Nah. The build quality continues to disappoint and the number of recalls is high. Chinese manufacturers have been leading the way for a while now. They're just banned from major countries.
cosmicgadget 2y ago
Share price is more about trajectory than position. Tesla has stagnated, mucking around with halo models and abandoning its affordable vehicle plans. The market in China has dead ended and any progress in autonomy is dependent on regulatory approval. The company is currently fourth banana for its 'visionary' CEO, behind DOGE, Twitter, and SpaceX. It's more than a matter of people disapproving of his antics.
NoPicklez 2y ago
I don't know if its just the US, but it certainly seems like Elon's reputation is having a bigger impact on Tesla drivers in the US. Here in Australia the sentiment is that they're just Tesla cars, people don't care its tied to Elon "or some guy that did a salute". Does certainly seem to be a hivemind.
- aaomidi 2y ago
  That probably says more about Australian society than it does about Tesla.
  - NoPicklez 2y ago

Thrymr 2y ago

Robotaxis are "scheduled for volume production starting in 2026". Sure. "On stage at the Tesla Autonomy Investor Day in Palo Alto, California, Musk boasted about Tesla’s self-driving technology, predicting his company will have more than 1 million robotaxis on the road next year." CNBC, 2019 [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/elon-musk-any-other-car-than-a-tesla-in-3-years-like-owning-a-horse.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/elon-musk-any-other-car-than...

decimalenough 2y ago
Elon's original claim was that all FSD-capable Teslas would also be robotaxis. Tesla did, in fact, break the 1M car mark in 2020, but it's now 2025 and FSD remains buggy and unsafe even with a driver at the wheel.

NoPicklez 2y ago

It's interesting the rationale within the update as to the decline, with no mention of political/reputational linkages. Obviously that is less tangible than those listed but it is interesting and of course unfavorable to disclose. When the auditors come in EOFY they look at the various accounts and their opening/closing balances year on year and look to explain at a high level what has impacted the increase and decrease of those accounts in the current FY. They will certainly pick up on reputational and political reasons.

neogodless 2y ago
Well it's implied on page 3: > This dynamic, along with changing political sentiment, could have a meaningful impact on demand for our products in the near-term.