4 ms·

Shipping is not tariffed, so I expect that hobby PCBs will still be affordable. ($2 PCBs becoming $5 is hardly a deal-breaker.) Aliexpress I expect will adapt

Shipping is not tariffed, so I expect that hobby PCBs will still be affordable. ($2 PCBs becoming $5 is hardly a deal-breaker.) Aliexpress I expect will adapt to end (or at least sharply curtail) free shipping promotions and start charging for shipping (which will not be tariffed), which better aligns what you’re actually paying for anyway. So, getting 100 transistors for $1.02 and free shipping with $10 total might not be a thing any more, but $0.25 for those transistors and $0.75 for shipping with a $10 minimum might be (and is probably closer to the true economics than $1 and free shipping via airplane).

alabastervlog 2y ago
Check out the planned minimum per-item fees for low-value (sub-$800) shipments planned when de minimus is rescinded for China. They're.... high.
fabbari 2y ago
Just to get the numbers right: [0] there is a $25 minimum, that becomes $50 June 1st, on all packages below or at $800. So those $0.25 transistors - after June 1st - come at $50.25 plus shipping. [0] https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-closes-de-minimis-exemptions-to-combat-chinas-role-in-americas-synthetic-opioid-crisis/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-pr...
- sokoloff 2y ago
  > Just to get the numbers right: Yes, we should always strive to do that. I haven’t gotten something from Aliexpress “sent through the international postal network” in a very long time (15 months or more and I think probably several years). Most everything I get comes from an Aliexpress-run line haul (which brokers the export and import customs clearance) and then is delivered by a local carrier (usually UniUni or another one they started calling themselves recently). Sometimes they use Cainaio which uses USPS for last mile delivery, but based on the timings of tracking events, I think are still line-hauled and cleared by Cainaio as the broker rather than via the “international postal network”. Both of those case would fall under the first of the sub-bullets ("will be subject to all applicable duties") rather than the second. I agree the $50 would kill the current cheap [postal] shipping of PCBs, but I’m pretty sure JLCPCB, PCBWay, etc will all switch to line hauls as well (which might even end up being cheaper than DHL that I usually pick now). It’s annoying, but I don’t think it marks the end of cheap hobby electronics parts; they just got a little less cheap.
  - bigbadfeline 2y ago
    > "I’m pretty sure" That's an interesting thing to say after tariff-on / tariff-off high intensity workouts almost every day. Not to mention the great desire to fire everyone standing in the way of the glorious inflation... did you take that into account while calculating the "little less cheap" thing? Just read the executive order linked in presto8's comment (above yours) and tell me you are sure what it means. Spaghetti legislation is nothing new but this is worse than a noodle trash container in the back yard of a Chinese restaurant. In the age of AI... presumably.
    - Yeul 2y ago
      Its interesting how America is basically run by an elected king. In Europe these kind of decisions take months of meetings and consultations.
      - krapp 2y ago
        He's not a king, he's CEO In Chief. This is the inevitable result of a society which pathologically mistrusts government on principle, but which worships celebrity and free market capitalism. It's surprising the pretense of being a Republic lasted as long as it did.
        int_19h 2y ago
        If we actually had pathological mistrust of government, Trump simply wouldn't have the power to do all the crazy shit he's doing. But we don't. What we do have is pathological mistrust of our political opponents in the government. More so on the right, but it's fairly pervasive. So "small government" gets used as a way to trip up your opposition when it's in power, but as soon as you get the reins, it's full steam ahead.
        sagarm 2y ago
        He only has that power because Congress is allowing him to abuse "emergency" powers. Authority to set taxes lies with Congress.
- presto8 2y ago
  > Just to get the numbers right: [0] there is a $25 minimum, that becomes $50 June 1st, on all packages below or at $800. Things are changing very quickly, so it's hard to keep up. But I believe this was revised on April 9th to $100 dollars a package from HK or PRC on May 2, and $200 a package starting June 1. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modi... > (b) increase the per postal item containing goods duty in section 2(c)(ii) of Executive Order 14256, as modified by the Executive Order dated April 8, 2025, that is in effect on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 2, 2025, and before 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, from 75 dollars to 100 dollars; and > (c) increase the per postal item containing goods duty in section 2(c)(ii) of Executive Order 14256, as modified by the Executive Order dated April 8, 2025, that is in effect on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, from 150 dollars to 200 dollars.
mindslight 2y ago
If clearing customs per-package is too expensive or inconvenient, I expect Aliexpress will tweak their managed logistics process to import items as bulk shipments in the cargo container at wholesale value and add estimated customs charges as a checkout fee on top of item prices. I don't think big print "free shipping" will be affected as it gets people to buy more often and it pads the margins when people buy more at one time. They already had to make a much bigger adjustment when they stopped being able to dump packages onto USPS, and from my experience it improved the delivery times dramatically. That's the thing about this ham-fisted "tough on China" authoritarian kayfabe - China isn't just some monolithic entity just sitting on their hands, they're now the distributed innovators operating in a nimble fashion.
- ssl-3 2y ago
  They already do bulk imports, and they have have been doing it for years. With their "Standard Choice" shipping, for me where I am, that means that my stuff is sent from New York to me in Ohio with USPS. There's no customs forms attached when it comes my way, nor should there be: I didn't import anything. How it gets from wherever it started to New York is not my problem -- just as it isn't my problem with the other imported stuff I buy, from any other place that I buy it (whether from Amazon or the bricks-and-mortar store on the corner). They import things in bulk, and the importer pays tariffs as they do so. The cost of them doing this is built into the price that I paid up-front. The recent non-committal slapstick comedy approach of the current administration does make things hard to predict, but: I predict that a widget that used to cost 50 cents to buy on AE with Standard Choice may end up costing me a dollar or two -- a huge increase as a percentage, but meh. It's not like that 50-cent widget going to suddenly cost fifty bucks or something. (Now, that said: I have bought inexpensive widgets from China that I imported directly -- sans Standard Choice. But that's different. In these instances, the seller just puts my widget in the mail on their side of the world, and it shows up in the mail on my side of the world -- with a customs form stuck to it. Elimination of de minimis will affect the things that I import in this fashion in a very expensive way because that customs form is going to have an additional price attached to it.)
  - mindslight 2y ago

alabastervlog 2y ago

Check out the planned minimum per-item fees for low-value (sub-$800) shipments planned when de minimus is rescinded for China. They're.... high.

fabbari 2y ago

Just to get the numbers right: [0] there is a $25 minimum, that becomes $50 June 1st, on all packages below or at $800. So those $0.25 transistors - after June 1st - come at $50.25 plus shipping. [0] https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-closes-de-minimis-exemptions-to-combat-chinas-role-in-americas-synthetic-opioid-crisis/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-pr...

sokoloff 2y ago
> Just to get the numbers right: Yes, we should always strive to do that. I haven’t gotten something from Aliexpress “sent through the international postal network” in a very long time (15 months or more and I think probably several years). Most everything I get comes from an Aliexpress-run line haul (which brokers the export and import customs clearance) and then is delivered by a local carrier (usually UniUni or another one they started calling themselves recently). Sometimes they use Cainaio which uses USPS for last mile delivery, but based on the timings of tracking events, I think are still line-hauled and cleared by Cainaio as the broker rather than via the “international postal network”. Both of those case would fall under the first of the sub-bullets ("will be subject to all applicable duties") rather than the second. I agree the $50 would kill the current cheap [postal] shipping of PCBs, but I’m pretty sure JLCPCB, PCBWay, etc will all switch to line hauls as well (which might even end up being cheaper than DHL that I usually pick now). It’s annoying, but I don’t think it marks the end of cheap hobby electronics parts; they just got a little less cheap.
- bigbadfeline 2y ago
  > "I’m pretty sure" That's an interesting thing to say after tariff-on / tariff-off high intensity workouts almost every day. Not to mention the great desire to fire everyone standing in the way of the glorious inflation... did you take that into account while calculating the "little less cheap" thing? Just read the executive order linked in presto8's comment (above yours) and tell me you are sure what it means. Spaghetti legislation is nothing new but this is worse than a noodle trash container in the back yard of a Chinese restaurant. In the age of AI... presumably.
  - Yeul 2y ago
    Its interesting how America is basically run by an elected king. In Europe these kind of decisions take months of meetings and consultations.
    - krapp 2y ago
      He's not a king, he's CEO In Chief. This is the inevitable result of a society which pathologically mistrusts government on principle, but which worships celebrity and free market capitalism. It's surprising the pretense of being a Republic lasted as long as it did.
      - int_19h 2y ago
        If we actually had pathological mistrust of government, Trump simply wouldn't have the power to do all the crazy shit he's doing. But we don't. What we do have is pathological mistrust of our political opponents in the government. More so on the right, but it's fairly pervasive. So "small government" gets used as a way to trip up your opposition when it's in power, but as soon as you get the reins, it's full steam ahead.
        sagarm 2y ago
        He only has that power because Congress is allowing him to abuse "emergency" powers. Authority to set taxes lies with Congress.
presto8 2y ago
> Just to get the numbers right: [0] there is a $25 minimum, that becomes $50 June 1st, on all packages below or at $800. Things are changing very quickly, so it's hard to keep up. But I believe this was revised on April 9th to $100 dollars a package from HK or PRC on May 2, and $200 a package starting June 1. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modi... > (b) increase the per postal item containing goods duty in section 2(c)(ii) of Executive Order 14256, as modified by the Executive Order dated April 8, 2025, that is in effect on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 2, 2025, and before 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, from 75 dollars to 100 dollars; and > (c) increase the per postal item containing goods duty in section 2(c)(ii) of Executive Order 14256, as modified by the Executive Order dated April 8, 2025, that is in effect on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, from 150 dollars to 200 dollars.

mindslight 2y ago

If clearing customs per-package is too expensive or inconvenient, I expect Aliexpress will tweak their managed logistics process to import items as bulk shipments in the cargo container at wholesale value and add estimated customs charges as a checkout fee on top of item prices. I don't think big print "free shipping" will be affected as it gets people to buy more often and it pads the margins when people buy more at one time. They already had to make a much bigger adjustment when they stopped being able to dump packages onto USPS, and from my experience it improved the delivery times dramatically. That's the thing about this ham-fisted "tough on China" authoritarian kayfabe - China isn't just some monolithic entity just sitting on their hands, they're now the distributed innovators operating in a nimble fashion.

ssl-3 2y ago
They already do bulk imports, and they have have been doing it for years. With their "Standard Choice" shipping, for me where I am, that means that my stuff is sent from New York to me in Ohio with USPS. There's no customs forms attached when it comes my way, nor should there be: I didn't import anything. How it gets from wherever it started to New York is not my problem -- just as it isn't my problem with the other imported stuff I buy, from any other place that I buy it (whether from Amazon or the bricks-and-mortar store on the corner). They import things in bulk, and the importer pays tariffs as they do so. The cost of them doing this is built into the price that I paid up-front. The recent non-committal slapstick comedy approach of the current administration does make things hard to predict, but: I predict that a widget that used to cost 50 cents to buy on AE with Standard Choice may end up costing me a dollar or two -- a huge increase as a percentage, but meh. It's not like that 50-cent widget going to suddenly cost fifty bucks or something. (Now, that said: I have bought inexpensive widgets from China that I imported directly -- sans Standard Choice. But that's different. In these instances, the seller just puts my widget in the mail on their side of the world, and it shows up in the mail on my side of the world -- with a customs form stuck to it. Elimination of de minimis will affect the things that I import in this fashion in a very expensive way because that customs form is going to have an additional price attached to it.)
- mindslight 2y ago