4 ms·

I strong suspect that Trump fully intends for tariffs to cripple renewables (they will) and boost oil and gas jobs. The dude is hell bent on returning America t

I strong suspect that Trump fully intends for tariffs to cripple renewables (they will) and boost oil and gas jobs. The dude is hell bent on returning America to the 1950s.

cmrdporcupine 2y ago
Indeed, politicians in the employ of the (traditional) energy sector have gone from mocking renewable projects and decrying them for "requiring subsidies" to demanding their curtailment because they do not. Alberta's government (whose premier is a former oil&gas industry lobbyist) enacted a "moritorium" on new renewables projects a couple years ago because it had the most active investment in that sector in the country (most sunny days, and very windy). After the moritorium was lifted draconian regulations were placed on potential new sites. This was done under the cover of "protecting farmland", but this is in a province with a massive abandoned oil well contamination issue, which the private sector got away with and continues to get away with. And then today/yesterday it came out that the government had hidden the results of public "consultations" on these matters because it was not favourable to them. The problem with oil&gas is it is prone to the development of parasitical/highway-man type relationships, and all sorts of people get rich quick by inserting themselves in the flow and they will not give up this position without a dirty, dirty fight.
- jandrese 2y ago
  One of the ironies in the US is that some of the more conservative states with supposedly renewable energy hostile governments are actually deploying more solar than many liberal states. When people want to oppose a solar install for whatever reason they often turn to environmental laws, requiring impact studies or other such red tape, that are much weaker in conservative states. Texas is a champion of renewable installs despite a government that is openly pro-fossil fuel.
  - floxy 2y ago
    https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/blue-states-dont-build-red-states https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/blue-states-dont-build-red-sta...
toomuchtodo 2y ago
The US had at least one year of solar PV deployment capacity in reserve before tariffs went into effect, ~50GW. It also has roughly the same amount of domestic manufacturing, but not fully vertically integrated. Gas plants are backordered well into the 2030s and coal plants (which only produced ~15% of electricity in the US in 2024) are teetering near retirement. To push either to failure would not be hard, you'd just have to target (legally, economically) specific parts of the supply chains needed for thermal generation construction (Siemens or GE Vernova) and operations/maintenance. Tariffs and economic uncertainty are pushing down oil prices. The US O&G industry experiences pain below $70/barrel. It is not having a great time under this admin, as of this comment. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43624269 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43624269 (citations) 'Unstoppable force' of solar power propels world to 40% clean electricity - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43620007 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43620007 - April 2025 Shift to Clean Energy Will Persist under Trump, New Analyses Say - https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/shift-from-fossil-fuels-to-renewable-energy-will-persist-despite-trump/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/shift-from-fossil... - April 16th, 2025 ‘Drill Baby Drill’ Is Drowning in Oil: Trump's tariffs are helping to create some of the worst conditions for the industry so far this century. - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-15/trump-tariffs-drill-baby-drill-is-drowning-in-oil https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-15/trump-... | https://archive.today/4Qyno https://archive.today/4Qyno - April 15, 2025 Texas Oil Executives Are Frustrated at Trump for Crushing Crude Prices - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-09/texas-wildcatters-grow-impatient-with-trump-as-oil-prices-tank https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-09/texas-wil... | https://archive.today/oHr2w https://archive.today/oHr2w - April 9, 2025

I strong suspect that Trump fully intends for tariffs to cripple renewables (they will) and boost oil and gas jobs. The dude is hell bent on returning America to the 1950s.

cmrdporcupine 2y ago

Indeed, politicians in the employ of the (traditional) energy sector have gone from mocking renewable projects and decrying them for "requiring subsidies" to demanding their curtailment because they do not. Alberta's government (whose premier is a former oil&gas industry lobbyist) enacted a "moritorium" on new renewables projects a couple years ago because it had the most active investment in that sector in the country (most sunny days, and very windy). After the moritorium was lifted draconian regulations were placed on potential new sites. This was done under the cover of "protecting farmland", but this is in a province with a massive abandoned oil well contamination issue, which the private sector got away with and continues to get away with. And then today/yesterday it came out that the government had hidden the results of public "consultations" on these matters because it was not favourable to them. The problem with oil&gas is it is prone to the development of parasitical/highway-man type relationships, and all sorts of people get rich quick by inserting themselves in the flow and they will not give up this position without a dirty, dirty fight.

jandrese 2y ago
One of the ironies in the US is that some of the more conservative states with supposedly renewable energy hostile governments are actually deploying more solar than many liberal states. When people want to oppose a solar install for whatever reason they often turn to environmental laws, requiring impact studies or other such red tape, that are much weaker in conservative states. Texas is a champion of renewable installs despite a government that is openly pro-fossil fuel.
- floxy 2y ago
  https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/blue-states-dont-build-red-states https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/blue-states-dont-build-red-sta...

toomuchtodo 2y ago

The US had at least one year of solar PV deployment capacity in reserve before tariffs went into effect, ~50GW. It also has roughly the same amount of domestic manufacturing, but not fully vertically integrated. Gas plants are backordered well into the 2030s and coal plants (which only produced ~15% of electricity in the US in 2024) are teetering near retirement. To push either to failure would not be hard, you'd just have to target (legally, economically) specific parts of the supply chains needed for thermal generation construction (Siemens or GE Vernova) and operations/maintenance. Tariffs and economic uncertainty are pushing down oil prices. The US O&G industry experiences pain below $70/barrel. It is not having a great time under this admin, as of this comment. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43624269 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43624269 (citations) 'Unstoppable force' of solar power propels world to 40% clean electricity - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43620007 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43620007 - April 2025 Shift to Clean Energy Will Persist under Trump, New Analyses Say - https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/shift-from-fossil-fuels-to-renewable-energy-will-persist-despite-trump/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/shift-from-fossil... - April 16th, 2025 ‘Drill Baby Drill’ Is Drowning in Oil: Trump's tariffs are helping to create some of the worst conditions for the industry so far this century. - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-15/trump-tariffs-drill-baby-drill-is-drowning-in-oil https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-15/trump-... | https://archive.today/4Qyno https://archive.today/4Qyno - April 15, 2025 Texas Oil Executives Are Frustrated at Trump for Crushing Crude Prices - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-09/texas-wildcatters-grow-impatient-with-trump-as-oil-prices-tank https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-09/texas-wil... | https://archive.today/oHr2w https://archive.today/oHr2w - April 9, 2025