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China is ramping up imports of Canadian crude. https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/china-us-canada-oil-trade-war-worsens https://financialpost

by ChoGGi 2y ago

China is ramping up imports of Canadian crude. https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/china-us-canada-oil-trade-war-worsens https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/china-u...

jmyeet 2y ago
I see the announcements of China importing more Canadian oil to be largely performative. Canada lacks the facilities to export oil so they'd have to build them when there are existing piplines that export it to the US. That's a hard to justify expense, particularly because Canada-US relations could change any moment. LNG is even worse because those facilities are expensive. China is going to get its oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela, like it already does. Russian oil can be imported overland. Sanctions are laughably avoided by simply laundering oil exports through Malaysia and elsewhere [1]. This also suits China's strategic interests of not having a unipolar world. But long-term China seeks to end its dependence on imported oil, just like the US did, except China is doing it with hydro and solar and by decreasing demand by electrifying transportation. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-march-iranian-oil-imports-surge-us-sanctions-fears-2025-04-10/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-march-ira...
- alephnerd 2y ago
  Westridge Marine Terminal back in Burnaby (right outside Vancouver) can handle APAC oil exports. That said, Canada is ambivalent about negotiations with China as much of Canada's automotive industry would be destroyed in a liberalized trade deal with China, just like what happened to Australia after their FTAs with ASEAN, China, India, SK, and Japan. China was also caught trying to influence Canadian elections by the CSIS [0], so trust is limited. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-spies-found-china-interfered-last-two-elections-probe-hears-2024-04-08/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-spies-found-ch...
- ChoGGi 2y ago
  > That's a hard to justify expense, particularly because Canada-US relations could change any moment. I don't see relations improving much for at least two years? Building up alternative export capabilities seems a decent way to support the economy. Of course no one really trusts China, but at least you have a reasonable idea of what their plans are.

by ChoGGi 2y ago

jmyeet 2y ago

I see the announcements of China importing more Canadian oil to be largely performative. Canada lacks the facilities to export oil so they'd have to build them when there are existing piplines that export it to the US. That's a hard to justify expense, particularly because Canada-US relations could change any moment. LNG is even worse because those facilities are expensive. China is going to get its oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela, like it already does. Russian oil can be imported overland. Sanctions are laughably avoided by simply laundering oil exports through Malaysia and elsewhere [1]. This also suits China's strategic interests of not having a unipolar world. But long-term China seeks to end its dependence on imported oil, just like the US did, except China is doing it with hydro and solar and by decreasing demand by electrifying transportation. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-march-iranian-oil-imports-surge-us-sanctions-fears-2025-04-10/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-march-ira...

alephnerd 2y ago
Westridge Marine Terminal back in Burnaby (right outside Vancouver) can handle APAC oil exports. That said, Canada is ambivalent about negotiations with China as much of Canada's automotive industry would be destroyed in a liberalized trade deal with China, just like what happened to Australia after their FTAs with ASEAN, China, India, SK, and Japan. China was also caught trying to influence Canadian elections by the CSIS [0], so trust is limited. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-spies-found-china-interfered-last-two-elections-probe-hears-2024-04-08/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-spies-found-ch...
ChoGGi 2y ago
> That's a hard to justify expense, particularly because Canada-US relations could change any moment. I don't see relations improving much for at least two years? Building up alternative export capabilities seems a decent way to support the economy. Of course no one really trusts China, but at least you have a reasonable idea of what their plans are.