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Experts say it risks the lives of the pilots. Also, if Hesgeth and other officials are doing it with this particular information, we might be concerned they are

by mmooss 2y ago

Experts say it risks the lives of the pilots. Also, if Hesgeth and other officials are doing it with this particular information, we might be concerned they are doing it with other information.

bigyabai 2y ago
One of the most famous recorded surface-to-air missile kills on a stealth aircraft was enabled by spies reporting formations and timing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_F-117A_shootdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_F-117A_shootdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zolt%C3%A1n_Dani https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zolt%C3%A1n_Dani Yugoslav spies residing near Italian NATO airbases informed the Yugoslav Air Defense HQ about lack of EA-6 Prowler electronic jammer and "Wild Weasel" anti-SAM aircraft launches during the late evening.
- mmooss 2y ago
  Interesting! Unfortunately, Wikipedia offers no citations for that story. (Also, I don't think it says anything about timing, only formation in the sense of what aircraft and capabilities were flying.)
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    I have an undergraduate understanding of this topic. I can solve for a firing solution against any target, stealth or not, with the details in these texts. Everything is vulnerable when coming into its own—jets’ aren’t at home on carrier decks. America would have been blessed to have a Hegseth in Berlin or Moscow during their falls.
    - mmooss 2y ago
      > I can solve for a firing solution against any target, stealth or not, with the details in these texts. By texts you mean the Wikipedia articles? Which details? I don't see much. > Everything is vulnerable when coming into its own—jets’ aren’t at home on carrier decks. How does that apply here? They didn't shoot down the F-117 as it landed or took off, but in the air over Serbia.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > you mean the Wikipedia articles? Which details? Takeoff times and ships. > didn't shoot down the F-117 as it landed or took off, but in the air over Serbia In Serbia they had a full mission profile. The commonality is knowing where something will be when. The difference between the situations is hitting something low, slow and above a relatively-uniform body like the ocean is a lot easier than doing so when it’s high and fast.
        mmooss 2y ago
        > In Serbia they had a full mission profile. Perhaps you have independent knowledge of the episode but the Wikipedia articles you cite only say the Serbs knew that the flights departed in the evening and that the mission wouldn't have its jamming and suppression support aircraft. Anyway, I think we agree that the info Hesgeth reportedly shared would be a danger to pilots and missions if the enemy has any anti-aircraft capability. Another way of looking at it was that hubris was the threat both times.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > if the enemy has any anti-aircraft capability The Houthis have these [1]. [1] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/irans-support-houthi-air-defenses-yemen https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/irans-su...
      - bigyabai 2y ago
        Not sure why you're so skeptical. This was a widely reported incident, it is highly-studied in tactical circles and information on the shootdown is available online and in print. The details they are referring to is likely the flight schedule and formations of the various missions flying out of the airbase. Knowing that a stealth aircraft has no anti-radiation escort means that you can illuminate them with a high-powered radar and not expose yourself as a target. In 1999 it would not be infeasible to use EOTS for a targeting solution too, like the parent comment says all you have to do is "solve" for the constraints. > How does that apply here? Because jets don't materialize in midair when they're needed and disappear when their mission is over. They are logistical nightmares to plan for, and part of that chain of logistics concerns keeping your flight plans private. Otherwise, you risk pilot lives so your enemy can use 1950s tactics against you. Air combat isn't the Cold War anymore, shootdowns like the one in 1999 emphasize how important secrecy is in contested airspace.
ty6853 2y ago
The number innocent US citizens in Yemen dead due to US strikes exceeds US pilots killed. So the US dead lives calculus is complicated by the fact this is also Americans (government) killing Americans.
- opello 2y ago
  ... not that it's a zero sum situation as you've laid it out. It's reasonable to be critical of both details, but not to hold them in any sort of balance.
  - ty6853 2y ago
    I don't know it's zero sum, but if the drone strike on a Yemen domiciled US citizen would have been anticipated I think that citizen would not have waited around to be blown up, to the extent a child has such agency.

by mmooss 2y ago

Experts say it risks the lives of the pilots. Also, if Hesgeth and other officials are doing it with this particular information, we might be concerned they are doing it with other information.

bigyabai 2y ago

One of the most famous recorded surface-to-air missile kills on a stealth aircraft was enabled by spies reporting formations and timing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_F-117A_shootdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_F-117A_shootdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zolt%C3%A1n_Dani https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zolt%C3%A1n_Dani Yugoslav spies residing near Italian NATO airbases informed the Yugoslav Air Defense HQ about lack of EA-6 Prowler electronic jammer and "Wild Weasel" anti-SAM aircraft launches during the late evening.

mmooss 2y ago
Interesting! Unfortunately, Wikipedia offers no citations for that story. (Also, I don't think it says anything about timing, only formation in the sense of what aircraft and capabilities were flying.)
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  I have an undergraduate understanding of this topic. I can solve for a firing solution against any target, stealth or not, with the details in these texts. Everything is vulnerable when coming into its own—jets’ aren’t at home on carrier decks. America would have been blessed to have a Hegseth in Berlin or Moscow during their falls.
  - mmooss 2y ago
    > I can solve for a firing solution against any target, stealth or not, with the details in these texts. By texts you mean the Wikipedia articles? Which details? I don't see much. > Everything is vulnerable when coming into its own—jets’ aren’t at home on carrier decks. How does that apply here? They didn't shoot down the F-117 as it landed or took off, but in the air over Serbia.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > you mean the Wikipedia articles? Which details? Takeoff times and ships. > didn't shoot down the F-117 as it landed or took off, but in the air over Serbia In Serbia they had a full mission profile. The commonality is knowing where something will be when. The difference between the situations is hitting something low, slow and above a relatively-uniform body like the ocean is a lot easier than doing so when it’s high and fast.
      - mmooss 2y ago
        > In Serbia they had a full mission profile. Perhaps you have independent knowledge of the episode but the Wikipedia articles you cite only say the Serbs knew that the flights departed in the evening and that the mission wouldn't have its jamming and suppression support aircraft. Anyway, I think we agree that the info Hesgeth reportedly shared would be a danger to pilots and missions if the enemy has any anti-aircraft capability. Another way of looking at it was that hubris was the threat both times.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > if the enemy has any anti-aircraft capability The Houthis have these [1]. [1] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/irans-support-houthi-air-defenses-yemen https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/irans-su...
    - bigyabai 2y ago
      Not sure why you're so skeptical. This was a widely reported incident, it is highly-studied in tactical circles and information on the shootdown is available online and in print. The details they are referring to is likely the flight schedule and formations of the various missions flying out of the airbase. Knowing that a stealth aircraft has no anti-radiation escort means that you can illuminate them with a high-powered radar and not expose yourself as a target. In 1999 it would not be infeasible to use EOTS for a targeting solution too, like the parent comment says all you have to do is "solve" for the constraints. > How does that apply here? Because jets don't materialize in midair when they're needed and disappear when their mission is over. They are logistical nightmares to plan for, and part of that chain of logistics concerns keeping your flight plans private. Otherwise, you risk pilot lives so your enemy can use 1950s tactics against you. Air combat isn't the Cold War anymore, shootdowns like the one in 1999 emphasize how important secrecy is in contested airspace.

ty6853 2y ago

The number innocent US citizens in Yemen dead due to US strikes exceeds US pilots killed. So the US dead lives calculus is complicated by the fact this is also Americans (government) killing Americans.

opello 2y ago
... not that it's a zero sum situation as you've laid it out. It's reasonable to be critical of both details, but not to hold them in any sort of balance.
- ty6853 2y ago
  I don't know it's zero sum, but if the drone strike on a Yemen domiciled US citizen would have been anticipated I think that citizen would not have waited around to be blown up, to the extent a child has such agency.