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The people shouting about low birth rates don't actually care about low birth rates. They are using concern about low birth rates to get people riled up and tr

The people shouting about low birth rates don't actually care about low birth rates. They are using concern about low birth rates to get people riled up and trojan horse bigotry into a mainstream message to gain a base of people who will support their efforts to enforce their values on others. IF there's a low birth rate crisis leading to a lack of workers THEN you can justify child labor IF there's a low birth rate crisis it's because of women and THEN you can justify restricting women's rights IF there's a low birth rate crisis "we all know what that means" THEN you can talk about replacement theory without talking about it IF there's a low birth rate crisis THEN you can propose all manner of ludicrous things that are otherwise socially unacceptable IF there's a low birth rate crisis THEN you can distract people from the other shit you're doing The easiest way to prove that the people shouting about a low birth rate crisis don't actually care about birth rates is to compile a list of their solutions to the "crisis". Are the solutions the subsidizing of childcare and healthcare or lower taxes? Are the solutions supporting young families or punishing and demonizing women who choose not to be mothers? The only thing the people shouting about low birth rates care about is money. That's it. That's all. Money. "Civilization is going to collapse unless you elect someone who will fix the low birthrate crisis and the best solution is eliminating the capital gains tax so while you're angry and panicking please vote for this guy over here." There is indeed some plain old bigotry and sexism at the margins but on the whole it's about money.

like_any_other 1y ago
> Are the solutions the subsidizing of childcare and healthcare or lower taxes? Hungary subsidizes young families via tax breaks (on those families, not in general) and loan forgiveness, yes: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47192612 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47192612
- os2warpman 1y ago
  Is it working? It’s been six years. Or is it feel good populist hand waving bullshit stymied by corruption and incompetence?
  - like_any_other 1y ago
    Hungary's fertility rate was 1.2-1.3 from 2000 to 2011, and then jumped to ~1.5 [1]. Whether that is because of this policy is up for debate. But that doesn't matter - I responded to your claim that they don't actually care about birthrate, because they don't fund families. But they do fund families, hinting that they probably do care about the birthrate, regardless of if their efforts are successful. It takes very motivated thinking to say that, because a solution doesn't work, those that tried the solution don't care about the problem. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/HUN/hungary/fertility-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/HUN/hun...
    - paulryanrogers 1y ago
      It's possible politicians in Hungary both care about low birth rates, are doing something that has an effect, yet have other motives they give a higher priority. Why only tax breaks? That won't help if the poor already pay little or nothing in taxes and still lack childcare.
      - like_any_other 1y ago
        > Why only tax breaks? It's not only tax breaks - the loans are government loans (up to $36,000) that get fully forgiven after 3 children are equivalent to a cash payment. And the poor pay 18% tax [1], so they would also benefit from a tax break. Though the poor aren't the only target of that program, so even if they get less help from it, it doesn't follow that politicians don't care about birthrates. > It's possible politicians in Hungary both care about low birth rates, are doing something that has an effect, yet have other motives they give a higher priority. I mean, what am I supposed to say to this? First of all, we're not talking just about politicians - voters seemingly care about this, and are getting what they want, at least partly. As for the hearts of politicians - who knows? Maybe? We're getting into unfalsifiable territory here. At a minimum, the politicians themselves are Hungarians - presumably they care about the survival of their people, at least some of them, at least a little? At the very least the initial post's simplistic they-don't-care-because-they-don't-fund-it logic has been disproven, at least for Hungary. [1] http://world.tax-rates.org/hungary/income-tax http://world.tax-rates.org/hungary/income-tax
milesrout 1y ago
[flagged]
- nitwit005 1y ago
  > Nobody wants to use child labour This is a genuinely a conservative cause in the US. Florida is currently in the news for working to weaken protections, but people have championed it across the country.
  - like_any_other 1y ago
    It's a conservative cause the same way that tightening IP laws and bank bailouts are a liberal cause - something politicians do regardless of what their voters want. I hang around a few conservative forums, and have seen zero (literal zero, not hyperbole) child labor advocacy. It's possible some exists, the way that any cause will have some proponents, but not nearly enough to be the reason laws are getting changed, especially while other far more strongly championed causes get ignored. It's corporations buying laws, and (in this case conservative) voters getting the blame.
    - os2warpman 1y ago
      > bank bailouts are a liberal The savings and loan crisis, Great Recession bailouts, and Covid bailouts all occurred under Republicans administrations. Are the liberal bank bailouts hiding in the bushes? Ah, the notorious liberal Henry Paulson. The copyright extension act was championed by totally liberal Orrin Hatch and Newt Gingrich. https://variety.com/1998/biz/news/speaker-support-1117477915/ https://variety.com/1998/biz/news/speaker-support-1117477915... It was named after lifelong republican Sonny Bono and support was so great that it passed with unanimous consent in the republican majority senate and by voice vote in the republican majority house. And proposals to curtail child labor laws are being made today, right now, at this very moment by famously liberal Florida: https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/fast-facts-hb-1225-and-sb-918-would-further-erode-child-labor-protections-in-florida https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/fast-facts-hb-1225-and-s...

like_any_other 1y ago

> Are the solutions the subsidizing of childcare and healthcare or lower taxes? Hungary subsidizes young families via tax breaks (on those families, not in general) and loan forgiveness, yes: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47192612 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47192612

os2warpman 1y ago
Is it working? It’s been six years. Or is it feel good populist hand waving bullshit stymied by corruption and incompetence?
- like_any_other 1y ago
  Hungary's fertility rate was 1.2-1.3 from 2000 to 2011, and then jumped to ~1.5 [1]. Whether that is because of this policy is up for debate. But that doesn't matter - I responded to your claim that they don't actually care about birthrate, because they don't fund families. But they do fund families, hinting that they probably do care about the birthrate, regardless of if their efforts are successful. It takes very motivated thinking to say that, because a solution doesn't work, those that tried the solution don't care about the problem. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/HUN/hungary/fertility-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/HUN/hun...
  - paulryanrogers 1y ago
    It's possible politicians in Hungary both care about low birth rates, are doing something that has an effect, yet have other motives they give a higher priority. Why only tax breaks? That won't help if the poor already pay little or nothing in taxes and still lack childcare.
    - like_any_other 1y ago
      > Why only tax breaks? It's not only tax breaks - the loans are government loans (up to $36,000) that get fully forgiven after 3 children are equivalent to a cash payment. And the poor pay 18% tax [1], so they would also benefit from a tax break. Though the poor aren't the only target of that program, so even if they get less help from it, it doesn't follow that politicians don't care about birthrates. > It's possible politicians in Hungary both care about low birth rates, are doing something that has an effect, yet have other motives they give a higher priority. I mean, what am I supposed to say to this? First of all, we're not talking just about politicians - voters seemingly care about this, and are getting what they want, at least partly. As for the hearts of politicians - who knows? Maybe? We're getting into unfalsifiable territory here. At a minimum, the politicians themselves are Hungarians - presumably they care about the survival of their people, at least some of them, at least a little? At the very least the initial post's simplistic they-don't-care-because-they-don't-fund-it logic has been disproven, at least for Hungary. [1] http://world.tax-rates.org/hungary/income-tax http://world.tax-rates.org/hungary/income-tax

milesrout 1y ago

[flagged]

nitwit005 1y ago
> Nobody wants to use child labour This is a genuinely a conservative cause in the US. Florida is currently in the news for working to weaken protections, but people have championed it across the country.
- like_any_other 1y ago
  It's a conservative cause the same way that tightening IP laws and bank bailouts are a liberal cause - something politicians do regardless of what their voters want. I hang around a few conservative forums, and have seen zero (literal zero, not hyperbole) child labor advocacy. It's possible some exists, the way that any cause will have some proponents, but not nearly enough to be the reason laws are getting changed, especially while other far more strongly championed causes get ignored. It's corporations buying laws, and (in this case conservative) voters getting the blame.
  - os2warpman 1y ago
    > bank bailouts are a liberal The savings and loan crisis, Great Recession bailouts, and Covid bailouts all occurred under Republicans administrations. Are the liberal bank bailouts hiding in the bushes? Ah, the notorious liberal Henry Paulson. The copyright extension act was championed by totally liberal Orrin Hatch and Newt Gingrich. https://variety.com/1998/biz/news/speaker-support-1117477915/ https://variety.com/1998/biz/news/speaker-support-1117477915... It was named after lifelong republican Sonny Bono and support was so great that it passed with unanimous consent in the republican majority senate and by voice vote in the republican majority house. And proposals to curtail child labor laws are being made today, right now, at this very moment by famously liberal Florida: https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/fast-facts-hb-1225-and-sb-918-would-further-erode-child-labor-protections-in-florida https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/fast-facts-hb-1225-and-s...