5 ms·

kurzgesagt: South Korea's demographic issue is killing their country [video]

30 points by maxloh 2y ago

CharlieDigital 2y ago
Taiwan not far behind, but with a smaller population to start with. Domestic policy seems to be hard to fix since it requires a massive cultural shift that may take a generation and requires big changes in the economic structure (income, employment law, child care capacity, etc.) that are going to have push back from corporations. Immigration is also a bit of a challenge as SK, Japan, and Taiwan are all a bit xenophobic to extents and of course, the languages are not easy to gain proficiency. I also think that this generation of people just think differently on matters of child rearing and what it means in life. (East Asian elder millennial w/2 kids). Even if money were no issue, I wouldn't want more kids. Will be an interesting couple of decades.
- dogma1138 2y ago
  So is most of Europe, TFT is below 2.1 across most countries, any and all population growth is essentially due to immigration. The TFR in the UK right now for example is ~1.4.
  - Glawen 2y ago
    Yep, and the trend is not in having kids, which is quite worrying as a nation.
    - CharlieDigital 2y ago
      Immigration seems to be the answer, but not so easy to pull off. Are there countries that have done this well? I would argue that for a long time, the US has done this quite well until maybe the last decade.
      - dogma1138 2y ago
        Unless you want to Balkanize yourself immigration is probably not the answer. The US is also probably not the best example because it’s a very different situation. Even in the 19th and 18th centuries natural birth rates accounted for about half of the population growth in the US. The current projection for the UK is that between 2021 and 2036 immigration will account for 92% of the population growth, and based on the previous 2-3 years this might actually be an underestimate.
      - robocat 2y ago
        Australia and New Zealand have 30% of population born in other countries. Housing growth seems to be keeping up in my city (Christchurch). I'm unsure if immigration is a sustainable solution - immigrants also get old and retire. But perhaps it works out because immigrants have more kids than people that were born here? I'd recommend Australia, for anyone considering moving, because it has better economics and a wider choice of locales and jobs.
  - robocat 2y ago
    Video about cause of demographic crisis in UK: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43744930 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43744930
- choilive 2y ago
  Also unfortunate that SK seems to have gone overnight from a generational family unit to the western style nuclear family. All of those elderly living in poverty despite modern SK built on their backs.. I am sure they would love to contribute to raising the next generation of children. There are so many cultural factors in SK that might take generations to reverse without being "forced" by the government (which is also wary to enforce). Of course, by then its too late per the video.
  - dogma1138 2y ago
    The nuclear family worked when you could easily have a single household provider, it doesn’t work anymore and the recent trend of having multi generational households seems to be completely driven by people not being able to afford to move out. I always pondered if child baring should be done as a generational leap. As in how would society look like if people have kids in their 20’s with the grandparents who are in their 40’s being the primary caretakers and rinse and repeat. Seems that this combines the best outcomes in terms of biology and still being able pursue educational and career goals. But this is a very major shift from where we are today. It’s going to be far more likely that more and more people will start having children in their late 30’s and even 40’s and 50’s. If we are going that way then freezing sprem and eggs at a young age should be much cheaper than it is now and people should really start considering it.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      Presume that a majority of women of reproductive age per generation al cohort do not want children, and intend to exit those fertility years childfree. What then? I see no crisis, only total fertility rates reaching a neutral rate based on women empowered to make the best choice for themselves. https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-data https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-... https://www.dw.com/en/why-south-korean-women-arent-having-babies/a-68419317 https://www.dw.com/en/why-south-korean-women-arent-having-ba... https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240918-chile-birth-rate-plummets-as-women-say-no-to-motherhood https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240918-chile-birth-r...
teddyh 2y ago
The community-selected title by the “Dearrow” browser plugin is “The long-term effects of South Korea's unprecedented fertility crisis”, which is a better title.
tim333 2y ago
>2060...economic collapse...will poverty among the elderly be common, but a big chunk will be forced to work... This seems to pretty much ignore AI and robots which will be able to do all/most of the work way before 2060. Probably before 2040. Maybe the future is more AI/human uploads and less bio models.
- polski-g 2y ago
  SK is at the point they should look into human cloning. They won't have the manpower to staff the DMZ at this rate.
- tenacious_tuna 2y ago
  > This seems to pretty much ignore AI and robots which will be able to do all/most of the work way before 2060 Just like self-driving has revolutionized trucking, even before 2020! /s
  - Qem 2y ago
    Also flying cars are just around the corner, since the 1950s.
  - tim333 2y ago
    I've always thought the Moravec/Kurzweil prediction of human level AI around 2029 was reasonable and that was predicted from about 1990 based on extrapolating a log graph and it hasn't really budged. It seems roughly on track. Progress is patchy - you still can't have a robot come round and make coffee but on more abstract stuff like IQ tests they passed 100 last year and recently got 136 https://cryptoslate.com/openais-o3-scores-136-on-mensa-norway-test-surpassing-98-of-human-population/ https://cryptoslate.com/openais-o3-scores-136-on-mensa-norwa... Also give the trucks a chance! The first one with no driver in should be going from Dallas to Houston around now https://www.govtech.com/transportation/what-to-know-as-self-driving-trucks-hit-texas-highways https://www.govtech.com/transportation/what-to-know-as-self-...
cedws 2y ago
Too bad Kurzgesagt became yet another clickbait channel.

30 points by maxloh 2y ago

Taiwan not far behind, but with a smaller population to start with. Domestic policy seems to be hard to fix since it requires a massive cultural shift that may take a generation and requires big changes in the economic structure (income, employment law, child care capacity, etc.) that are going to have push back from corporations. Immigration is also a bit of a challenge as SK, Japan, and Taiwan are all a bit xenophobic to extents and of course, the languages are not easy to gain proficiency. I also think that this generation of people just think differently on matters of child rearing and what it means in life. (East Asian elder millennial w/2 kids). Even if money were no issue, I wouldn't want more kids. Will be an interesting couple of decades.

dogma1138 2y ago
So is most of Europe, TFT is below 2.1 across most countries, any and all population growth is essentially due to immigration. The TFR in the UK right now for example is ~1.4.
- Glawen 2y ago
  Yep, and the trend is not in having kids, which is quite worrying as a nation.
  - CharlieDigital 2y ago
    Immigration seems to be the answer, but not so easy to pull off. Are there countries that have done this well? I would argue that for a long time, the US has done this quite well until maybe the last decade.
    - dogma1138 2y ago
      Unless you want to Balkanize yourself immigration is probably not the answer. The US is also probably not the best example because it’s a very different situation. Even in the 19th and 18th centuries natural birth rates accounted for about half of the population growth in the US. The current projection for the UK is that between 2021 and 2036 immigration will account for 92% of the population growth, and based on the previous 2-3 years this might actually be an underestimate.
    - robocat 2y ago
      Australia and New Zealand have 30% of population born in other countries. Housing growth seems to be keeping up in my city (Christchurch). I'm unsure if immigration is a sustainable solution - immigrants also get old and retire. But perhaps it works out because immigrants have more kids than people that were born here? I'd recommend Australia, for anyone considering moving, because it has better economics and a wider choice of locales and jobs.
- robocat 2y ago
  Video about cause of demographic crisis in UK: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43744930 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43744930
choilive 2y ago
Also unfortunate that SK seems to have gone overnight from a generational family unit to the western style nuclear family. All of those elderly living in poverty despite modern SK built on their backs.. I am sure they would love to contribute to raising the next generation of children. There are so many cultural factors in SK that might take generations to reverse without being "forced" by the government (which is also wary to enforce). Of course, by then its too late per the video.
- dogma1138 2y ago
  The nuclear family worked when you could easily have a single household provider, it doesn’t work anymore and the recent trend of having multi generational households seems to be completely driven by people not being able to afford to move out. I always pondered if child baring should be done as a generational leap. As in how would society look like if people have kids in their 20’s with the grandparents who are in their 40’s being the primary caretakers and rinse and repeat. Seems that this combines the best outcomes in terms of biology and still being able pursue educational and career goals. But this is a very major shift from where we are today. It’s going to be far more likely that more and more people will start having children in their late 30’s and even 40’s and 50’s. If we are going that way then freezing sprem and eggs at a young age should be much cheaper than it is now and people should really start considering it.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Presume that a majority of women of reproductive age per generation al cohort do not want children, and intend to exit those fertility years childfree. What then? I see no crisis, only total fertility rates reaching a neutral rate based on women empowered to make the best choice for themselves. https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-data https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-... https://www.dw.com/en/why-south-korean-women-arent-having-babies/a-68419317 https://www.dw.com/en/why-south-korean-women-arent-having-ba... https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240918-chile-birth-rate-plummets-as-women-say-no-to-motherhood https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240918-chile-birth-r...

teddyh 2y ago

The community-selected title by the “Dearrow” browser plugin is “The long-term effects of South Korea's unprecedented fertility crisis”, which is a better title.

tim333 2y ago

>2060...economic collapse...will poverty among the elderly be common, but a big chunk will be forced to work... This seems to pretty much ignore AI and robots which will be able to do all/most of the work way before 2060. Probably before 2040. Maybe the future is more AI/human uploads and less bio models.

polski-g 2y ago
SK is at the point they should look into human cloning. They won't have the manpower to staff the DMZ at this rate.
tenacious_tuna 2y ago
> This seems to pretty much ignore AI and robots which will be able to do all/most of the work way before 2060 Just like self-driving has revolutionized trucking, even before 2020! /s
- Qem 2y ago
  Also flying cars are just around the corner, since the 1950s.
- tim333 2y ago
  I've always thought the Moravec/Kurzweil prediction of human level AI around 2029 was reasonable and that was predicted from about 1990 based on extrapolating a log graph and it hasn't really budged. It seems roughly on track. Progress is patchy - you still can't have a robot come round and make coffee but on more abstract stuff like IQ tests they passed 100 last year and recently got 136 https://cryptoslate.com/openais-o3-scores-136-on-mensa-norway-test-surpassing-98-of-human-population/ https://cryptoslate.com/openais-o3-scores-136-on-mensa-norwa... Also give the trucks a chance! The first one with no driver in should be going from Dallas to Houston around now https://www.govtech.com/transportation/what-to-know-as-self-driving-trucks-hit-texas-highways https://www.govtech.com/transportation/what-to-know-as-self-...

cedws 2y ago

Too bad Kurzgesagt became yet another clickbait channel.