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They're actively hiring teams to diversify away from the CATL dependency. They've starting hiring teams in India [0] and Malaysia [1] to work with alternative

They're actively hiring teams to diversify away from the CATL dependency. They've starting hiring teams in India [0] and Malaysia [1] to work with alternative LFP suppliers. It's most likely Agratas in India (they manufacture the batteries used in Tata and JLR's EVs) and EVE Energy in Malaysia (they began an expansion outside Chin due to EU and US tariffs). [0] - https://hire-r1.mokahr.com/su/lsfouz https://hire-r1.mokahr.com/su/lsfouz [1] - https://hire-r1.mokahr.com/su/avoumb https://hire-r1.mokahr.com/su/avoumb

toomuchtodo 2y ago
This works until Tariff Man suddenly alters the deal.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  India and the US are about to announce a Bilateral Trade Agreement [0], which was already in the works during Trump 1. Musk visited Modi yesterday [1] and Vance is traveling to India in the next 2 days [2], so the BTA and sourcing from India is most likely the primary topic of conversation. The Modi admin has also been cultivating Trump and Stephen Miller adjacent advisors [3][4][5] at the Heritage and Hudson Foundation for a couple years now too, by trying to use Walter Russell Mead the same way Graham Allison acted as a conduit between China and the US. And besides that, the tariffs remain oriented as a de facto blockade against China, and as long as they remain at a rate above 60-70%, Chinese sourced suppliers remain price uncompetitive. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-finalise-terms-reference-first-phase-trade-deal-says-india-trade-2025-04-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-finalise-terms-... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/musk-says-he-will-visit-india-after-talk-with-modi-2025-04-19/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/musk-says-he-will-visit-... [2] - https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Vance-to-meet-Modi-in-India-as-U.S.-China-tariff-war-rages https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Van... [3] - https://indiafoundation.in/event-reports/india-study-tour-of-the-us-thinktank-scholars/ https://indiafoundation.in/event-reports/india-study-tour-of... [4] - https://x.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1876079122994401438 https://x.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1876079122994401438 [5] - https://nationalconservatism.org/natcon-4-2024/ https://nationalconservatism.org/natcon-4-2024/
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    Oh, this is absolutely the line being sold in New Delhi. It’s immediately abandoned the moment those folks are in Washington, because as much as Miller wants to deal with Modi, Loomer doesn’t and he needs her for natsec and the border. > tariffs remain oriented as a de facto blockade against China They’re against imports, period.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      > It’s immediately abandoned the moment those folks are in Washington, because as much as Miller wants to deal with Modi, Loomer doesn’t and he needs her for natsec and the border Pretty much. But I'd still disagree that this kind of lobbying doesn't have value. The UK (Vance), Israel (Kushner but now Trump Jr), and KSA have been working on building similar informal networks with the Trump admin. They can't predict everything but they can at least start understand the inner workings of the admin somewhat. Ironically, this is similar to how China scholars and India scholars would try to approach power dynamics in both countries as well. Clearly a severe degradation of our administrative capacity though - there's a reason diplomacy was increasingly formalized after the Gulf of Tonkin incident > They’re against imports, period Yep! I meant decoupling.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Your arguments come from a place of rationality and observations, without a doubt, but the decisions of material importance are being made by irrational actors. Maybe you’re right, maybe not, too much volatility to say with certainty imho. Might as well play roulette in the current macro. You could literally be in the room where the decision is being made, and I still wouldn’t give high confidence in prediction accuracy, based on observations to this point. You’re reading tea leaves while they’re throwing dice. On a recent APM Marketplace episode, Kai asked one of his guests to predict how this ends, and their answer was, paraphrasing, “haha are you kidding me? I can’t even tell you what the next 24 hours is going to look like.” [1] [1] https://pca.st/episode/6ce6c8be-c008-439f-b1a9-dc45cf48c57a?t=451.0 https://pca.st/episode/6ce6c8be-c008-439f-b1a9-dc45cf48c57a?...
    - 2y ago

toomuchtodo 2y ago

This works until Tariff Man suddenly alters the deal.

alephnerd 2y ago
India and the US are about to announce a Bilateral Trade Agreement [0], which was already in the works during Trump 1. Musk visited Modi yesterday [1] and Vance is traveling to India in the next 2 days [2], so the BTA and sourcing from India is most likely the primary topic of conversation. The Modi admin has also been cultivating Trump and Stephen Miller adjacent advisors [3][4][5] at the Heritage and Hudson Foundation for a couple years now too, by trying to use Walter Russell Mead the same way Graham Allison acted as a conduit between China and the US. And besides that, the tariffs remain oriented as a de facto blockade against China, and as long as they remain at a rate above 60-70%, Chinese sourced suppliers remain price uncompetitive. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-finalise-terms-reference-first-phase-trade-deal-says-india-trade-2025-04-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-finalise-terms-... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/musk-says-he-will-visit-india-after-talk-with-modi-2025-04-19/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/musk-says-he-will-visit-... [2] - https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Vance-to-meet-Modi-in-India-as-U.S.-China-tariff-war-rages https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Van... [3] - https://indiafoundation.in/event-reports/india-study-tour-of-the-us-thinktank-scholars/ https://indiafoundation.in/event-reports/india-study-tour-of... [4] - https://x.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1876079122994401438 https://x.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1876079122994401438 [5] - https://nationalconservatism.org/natcon-4-2024/ https://nationalconservatism.org/natcon-4-2024/
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  Oh, this is absolutely the line being sold in New Delhi. It’s immediately abandoned the moment those folks are in Washington, because as much as Miller wants to deal with Modi, Loomer doesn’t and he needs her for natsec and the border. > tariffs remain oriented as a de facto blockade against China They’re against imports, period.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    > It’s immediately abandoned the moment those folks are in Washington, because as much as Miller wants to deal with Modi, Loomer doesn’t and he needs her for natsec and the border Pretty much. But I'd still disagree that this kind of lobbying doesn't have value. The UK (Vance), Israel (Kushner but now Trump Jr), and KSA have been working on building similar informal networks with the Trump admin. They can't predict everything but they can at least start understand the inner workings of the admin somewhat. Ironically, this is similar to how China scholars and India scholars would try to approach power dynamics in both countries as well. Clearly a severe degradation of our administrative capacity though - there's a reason diplomacy was increasingly formalized after the Gulf of Tonkin incident > They’re against imports, period Yep! I meant decoupling.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Your arguments come from a place of rationality and observations, without a doubt, but the decisions of material importance are being made by irrational actors. Maybe you’re right, maybe not, too much volatility to say with certainty imho. Might as well play roulette in the current macro. You could literally be in the room where the decision is being made, and I still wouldn’t give high confidence in prediction accuracy, based on observations to this point. You’re reading tea leaves while they’re throwing dice. On a recent APM Marketplace episode, Kai asked one of his guests to predict how this ends, and their answer was, paraphrasing, “haha are you kidding me? I can’t even tell you what the next 24 hours is going to look like.” [1] [1] https://pca.st/episode/6ce6c8be-c008-439f-b1a9-dc45cf48c57a?t=451.0 https://pca.st/episode/6ce6c8be-c008-439f-b1a9-dc45cf48c57a?...
  - 2y ago